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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 11th, 2013 at 10:27:03 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Wrong, I'm spot on. A run of PBBPBP means nothing and does NOT predict in any way, shape or form which side will win the next hand. But good luck anyhow.


But confirmation bias and selective memory may make it seem like it does. The question isn't whether he's wrong, it's what you're going to do about it. If someone thinks they can discern exploitable patterns in independent prior random events, and thereby "overcome" the house edge in a game, they're wrong -- but so what?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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July 11th, 2013 at 11:13:11 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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July 11th, 2013 at 11:51:38 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I'll attempt to answer your inquiry regarding "tightening the nemesis window" with the following example, but please know that I will proceed with caution in this public forum:

My "recurring single" trend.

P BB P B P....I would betting betting for Banker here, as the Player's side has "singled" in it's last two appearances.

It's a very strong trend for me, and had been for years.

And, my "nemesis" on this trend: a "double".

I prefer my chances of a single, especially when it's "trending" thusly, over the chances of a double.

(Again, I play that same trend with another "angle" as well, but, sorry....this is one "funny" forum where its definitely better left unsaid. But you get my drift....)

"Funny forum"? Their are some very clever members on this site, serious players (this isn't a newbies boys club like BF & GG) as anybody can see from the interesting maths that is shared. If somebody posts idea's and concepts that belong in the dark ages and have zero substances, then more fool them when people snigger. There are some savvy players on this site, including veteran card counters, so when somebody claims they enjoy a bigger edge playing EV Baccarat than any card counting BJ player, you reap what you sow. What did you expect? Readers without question to swoon in admiration or fall about laughing.

P BB P B P "bet B next" In this public forum?

You would do well not to disseminate this sort of information anywhere.

More to do with factor relating to embarrassment than sharing secrets which will bring casinos to their knees. Yes I have looked and dabbled with trending the individual sides, it turned out to be the biggest load of tosh.

Banker 2nd hole is populated, non-populated, populated and so on, ditto the Player side doing the exact same thing at the same time. Prior hands / patterns / trends / acting after the event have no bearing on future hands, as you well know, so your magical bet selection carries no advantage. There are no magical 52% stats that when ABC happens, XYZ is more likely, people only see what they want to see. 52% may have been extracted from the Zumma test data, which is not even a smidgen of what any individual shoes can throw at the player.

Just like many games of chance, nothing is due, not next time, not next shoe nor the next session. Just because your favoured moves failed a few times, does not mean some relieving turnaround is pending. The cards have no idea what they have produced previously, it is you that is anthropomorphizing the game, which is without reason or rationale. The epitome of gamblers fallacy, the only aspect that keeps you floating is your discipline and not getting in too deep monetary~wise.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 11th, 2013 at 12:20:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Yeah I forgot, these people keep the casinos in business for the legit AP's


Actually, it's these people keeping the casinos in business:

"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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July 11th, 2013 at 1:28:32 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

You, I, and the Wizard are very well aware that the "betting Banker every hand" is not an effective strategy by any stretch of the imagination.



That's not what I said and it's not what the Wizard claims.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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July 11th, 2013 at 3:35:43 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Actually, it's these people keeping the casinos in business:



Rocket scientist convention
Each day is better than the next
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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July 11th, 2013 at 6:15:12 PM permalink
I've always thought "always bet banker" was a bit silly. You're losing anyway, why not play a little? What, you're that attached to 0.18% of your bet? Then what are you doing giving up the other 1.06%?

(But as always, gr8player doesn't "GET THAT"... honestly, his posts are far enough removed from reality and reason, I'm not sure exactly what it is he doesn't get, but he seems to think it's possible to use baccarat as a source of income, so let's go with that.)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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July 11th, 2013 at 6:24:15 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

But confirmation bias and selective memory may make it seem like it does. The question isn't whether he's wrong, it's what you're going to do about it. If someone thinks they can discern exploitable patterns in independent prior random events, and thereby "overcome" the house edge in a game, they're wrong -- but so what?



If I recall correctly, gr8player understands that, and his methodology isn't so much about "predicting the odds" as much as it is "since it's all random, I'll do it this way and see what happens". It's human involvement. Yeah, you can bet consistently and let the cards vary, or you can bet randomly and let the cards vary. Or you can bet a specific pattern and let the cards vary. And it's all the same. gr8player likes to bet a pattern. I don't think he believes he is beating the house; I think he believes he is maximizing his enjoyment, and by extension the value of his entertainment dollar.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Yeah I forgot, these people keep the casinos in business for the legit AP's



No one cares about "the legit AP's". Just like "the legit AP's" don't care about us recreationals. Everyone's game is his or her own, to enjoy as he or she sees fit.
NO KILL I
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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July 11th, 2013 at 6:43:02 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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July 11th, 2013 at 7:10:39 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I don't think he believes he is beating the house;



He said yesterday he had an edge, so he's beating the
house. In his mind, anyway.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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