Knowing Your Nemesis

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Quote: gr8player

Now, look past the result......Do you think I care about it being a Player (loss) as opposed to a Banker (win)????

There's where you're missing the boat.....you're much too invested in that single winning outcome.

Don't for one minute pretend you know anything about how I play, or how I base my game. For years I have not based MY GAME on any single event, nor the winning of any single event. Turning an initial 400u into 12000 units over the series of a few weeks, playing five nights a week (details of each & every session, I posted on the web). I'm not overly concerned with amassing any public vote, pathetic attempts of sway by mentioning "I play large size units", childish to say the least.

For somebody who decided to publicly post that he lost a quarter of a million dollars playing baccarat, it is all rather strange behaviour.

One irrational move of many;

P
BB
P
B
PP lose a bet

The above should not re-occur many times during my session?

Should the unearthly occur, play bigger units next trip, because it should not happen again (despite what went on in all those shoes while I wasn't there), ditto repeat for third week, betting even bigger units, because it's never happened before, P will eventually realise it is singling and will maintain that trend long enough for me to recoup my draw-down, if not some other favoured 'trend' move of mine should provide me with a greater than 50% hit rate? And who exactly is basing their game on a series of single events?

Welcome to the world of the weird, wonderful and out right bizarre.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You don't have IT and we don't want IT! Your system WILL FAIL, GUARANTEED!!!

Hello, Ibeatyouraces.

May I ask a question of you: Are you a Baccarat player? If not, then what in the world would make you think that my plays will fail me? Is it the 1% vig that you simply cannot get around? Is that it? I ask only because that, in and of itself, seems to scare the bejesus out of most people around here.

Me? I don't begrudge the casino their vig at all. Heck, better that 1% than them sending their electric bill to my house. Somebody or something has gotta pay for the rent, lights, salaries, etc. So they built in their edge. I say.....let 'em have it.

But why does that "negative expectancy" preclude all of you from surviving this game? Is it the fact that we're getting paid approx 1% less than true odds at every winning bet? Is that the problem? That, no matter how you slice and dice it, it remains a NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY game......

......to which I reply, yet again, with SO WHAT?

So they're paying me less than true odds. SO WHAT?

I'll tell you "so what":

So you better have a reliable bet selection process that'll "hit" as much as "miss" and then a course of action by way of recoup (read: money-management) when the "misses" are out-pacing the "hits". And remain consistant in your bet selection process, and be patient to await the times when it at least "appears as if" this shoe (or portion thereof) is dispensing those desired results and the discipline to hold your course of action.

But that all doesn't grow on trees, my friends. Rather, it's ACQUIRED.

Acquired after years of trial and error, years of experience, and then those years will bring out a quiet confidence in your game, and then....ONLY THEN....will that necessary P & D & C & MM fall into place for you.

I wish it for all of you.

But don't think for one moment that just because you can't do it or even perceive it, that it cannot be done.

Look, I claim no "millions of dollars" in winnings. I claim no "cash cow" nor an "easy money".

I "grind" at this game. I win some and I lose some. I can point out probably two people in each of my "regular stops" that are doing relatively the same thing as I....grinding it out. Minimizing losses so that they're relatively-easily recoverable. And then "pocketing" their wins, no matter the size.

It's all a grind....a well-thought-out mode of play, but a grind nonetheless. Please, no one get any "delusions of grandeur", for that would surely be a "fool's gold".

My real money comes from my job. My full-time, hard-at-work job.

Baccarat is but an entertaining side-light for me. And I believe it was Mosca who posted a rather poignant post about that; you guys should look for it in this thread.

I simply feel that if I'm going to play this game, with my money, I'm gonna play it to win it. As best I'm able to.

Acquired??? You simply don't get it, you make grandiose statements about enjoying a bigger edge than any BJ player???

Members on this site want to see a definable edge, not somebody who is smart by not getting in too deep. So where and what is your edge in this game of chance? That after 2 single Player outcomes, bet the opposite after the third occurrence, if one-side is streaking to three, then parlay. Like the cards possess some sort of awareness of what they are suppose to do? When in reality despite all your table control, everything else is based around gamblers fallacy and your too long in the tooth to accept or even recognise it.

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Quote: MathExtremist

There are ways to beat baccarat, but that's not one of them.

[1] https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/
[2] http://greenbaizevamp.hubpages.com/hub/Edward-Thorps-baccarat-adventure

I would strongly dispute those findings, been there tried it. I recently posted about the card value 4 being considered the most significant and were I played a shoe and at least 50% of the 24 x fours left a six deck game very early. Watching and half expecting a good bank or long bank streaks in the remainder of the shoe, never happened.

Quote: egalite

Acquired??? You simply don't get it, you make grandiose statements about enjoying a bigger edge than any BJ player???

Members on this site want to see a definable edge, not somebody who is smart by not getting in too deep. So where and what is your edge in this game of chance? That after 2 single Player outcomes, bet against after the third occurrence, if one-side is streaking to three, then parlay. Like the cards possess some sort of awareness of what they are suppose to do? When in reality despite all your table control, everything else is based around gamblers fallacy and your too long in the tooth to accept or even recognise it.

Please ask gr8player if he has accepted the challenge yet.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

As you should, but don't come here telling us how you can beat this game by following trends as its complete nonsense. If you're ahead at this point, great. No doubt anyone can be ahead at any given time in any game. But to conclude that it will continue is foolish.

Classic case of 'blinkered vision'.

It's a bit like the English Premier League, all SKY TV / Foxtel and the media care about is who has won this soccer league since it's inception in 1991. The fact there has been a league competition for over 100 years in the UK, past winners don't count since it was re-badged.

Apply the same to GR8player, he may be doing well with his new found disciplined approach (who really knows, it matters nothing to me), yet his prior six figure loss is somehow masked or conveniently forgotten about.

Some desperately need it, some eventually grow up, some never will.

Quote: egalite

Quote: MathExtremist

There are ways to beat baccarat, but that's not one of them.

[1] https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/
[2] http://greenbaizevamp.hubpages.com/hub/Edward-Thorps-baccarat-adventure

I would strongly dispute those findings, been there tried it. I recently posted about the card value 4 being considered the most significant and were I played a shoe and at least 50% of the 24 x fours left a six deck game very early. Watching and half expecting a good bank or long bank streaks in the remainder of the shoe, never happened.

I think you misread: those findings indicate that knowledge of the composition of the deck, by itself, cannot lead to a significant or frequent player advantage.

Yyyyyyeah, I think I changed my mind here. I was wrong.

Quote: teddys

1. WIN
2. Minimize exposure

Marvelous advice.
If your first bet is a stunning amount, its great advice. Take your winnings and run.
If your first bet is fairly modest take some early winnings and enjoy a break and some wine or something.

But what happens when we make several beginning modest bets and we don't have early wins? We have only eary losses?

Quote: FleaStiff

Quote: teddys

1. WIN
2. Minimize exposure

Marvelous advice.
If your first bet is a stunning amount, its great advice. Take your winnings and run.
If your first bet is fairly modest take some early winnings and enjoy a break and some wine or something.

But what happens when we make several beginning modest bets and we don't have early wins? We have only eary losses?

Reminds me of a guy who normally bets $10 ~ $15 units. First bet an amazing out of character $500, lost, spend next 6 hours trying to recoup at $10 per hand.

BTW - He didn't manage it.