Worthless, Really Worthless and Horribly Worthless

If you are playing a random game where the casino has an edge then you are playing a losing contest. You can have somoe good luck but ultimately you'll have good math (bad math for you) and you will lose. So the games are worthless to you (economically speaking).

However, there are good worthless bets and bad worthless bets. If you play blackjack and use basic strategy, you will lose but the contest will be close, around one-half percent.

If you play craps and make only low house-edge such as Pass and Come with odds, that is a decent worthless bet. You will lose but the contest will be close.

So the above bets are examples of worthless decent random bets in a losing situation. Try to cut the number of decisions at all the games and that helps.

Now really worthless bets would come in with edges in the three to 10 percent range. At the upper limits you are asking to be hurt badly.

The horribly worthless bets would be those over 10 percent --- some going over 16 percent --- and here you are asking to be hammered.

In the world of awful, there are awful, awfuller, and awfullest wagers. I say you should bet in an awful manner.

Quote: FrankScoblete

If you are playing a random game where the casino has an edge then you are playing a losing contest.
You can have some good luck but ultimately you'll have good math (bad math for you) and you will lose.
So the games are worthless to you (economically speaking).

you are playing a losing contest by expectation.

The truth is that the longer one plays at a negative expectation game, the LESS chances that one person has of being even or coming out ahead.


Ultimately you will lose??
NOT (Ion Saliu quote)

Depends on how many bets you make over your lifetime of play.
Not all Craps players who make 1,000,000 lifetime bets just with pass and 10x odds will lose.
about 9.5389311% would show being ahead or even.
(That would be on average 95,390 out of 1 million... enough to fill the Ellen and Oprah shows for years. I beat Craps!)
Damn. My math must be wrong. Alan!!

ev units: -14141.41414
sd units: 10,809.17
ev/sd = -1.308279217

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/goatcabin/blog/2/
for more on ev and sd

1 Million. Is that enough bets?
I forgot. You love making blanket statements without regards to time.

Not 100% of ALL Craps players will show a lifetime LOSS over their lifetime of play.
That still is a function of EV and SD (expected value and standard deviation)
function = relates an input to an output
http://www.mathsisfun.com/sets/function.html

I showed some math
now that is being rude on my part

Frank,
In trying to find the perfect house edge balance on bets, flat bets should be as close to zero as possible, and still pay the light bill for the casino, but large, high-end payout tables kind of need a large % to protect against player windfall hits - which won't go back into the rack.

In designing carnival games that still "feel good":
1. flat bets ~2%, less for tough strategies like UTH;
2. paytable bets can be ~ 7%, though some newer side bets are nearly 3%

The fact of the matter is ALL bets "look ugly" - because they ALL must have some sort of a house edge. That cannot be gotten around.
One of the most pointless things a gambler can do is worry about the "Pay to Play" basis of gambling.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

There are no bad bets, just bad payoffs.

Reminds me of a similar quote. My X worked for Cigna in the claims department at the national headquarters.

I learned from her that that insurance is in the "business of denying claims."

Similar situation. You want the participants to not notice where the shortfalls are, so you stuff them in the payments that _seem_ like a windfall.

If you're gambling at a negative game, house edge isn't the only consideration. It's also how much enjoyment (utility) you get from the game. So you should play a game you love with a HE of 5% over a game you hate with a house edge of 1%.

After all, why are you playing negative games, if not for entertainment?

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silly

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

Show Spoiler

hint: for the order, the place bets are in last place. Got beat out by a 20%+ house edge bet
After 10,000 such bets the Fire Bet still has close to an 11% chance of not being a loser.
The place bets look to be close to only 8% and for this example holds last place.
The pass with 345X odds still leads the pack at close to 39% as expected

It is not always about the lowest house edge that wins the race

wow.. First Heavy.
now FrankScoblete is on this site. hopefully he doesnt disappear like his predecessor

Oh no, you guys are much too polite for him to leave the site!

Actually, most posters have been polite and even if they disagree with me --- and many do --- they don't try to use sarcasm or nasty comments to prove their points. I won't be posting as much in the future as I have this weekend (I took some time off) because I am working on four projects (three new books, two of which are non-gambling ones, and a movie script).

I should add this to the discussion of worthless bets:

Amount wagered on a given bet
Speed of the game
House edge
Amount of time you played

I think these would be the major considerations for a game.

I think a huge thrill from gambling is the anticipation of what is about to happen or could be about to happen. That anticipation is the up before the decision, the down if the decision is a loser, then a quick up as money is placed on the next decision, then another up if that decision wins, then another anticipatory feeling on the next wager and so on. I guess it would be safe to say that much of random gambling is in the player's head.

I disagree with the entire premise.

Gambling is a pastime, a recreation. If I want to make money, I go to work. If gambling were work, it would no longer be fun. There would be too much responsibility assigned to it. There's a difference between wanting to win, and needing to win.

The value of knowing the odds is in doing whatever you do with your eyes open. So if I sit down at Three Card and bet Pairs Plus on a 6-3-1 pay table, I have no illusions. If I had to work to learn counting, or dice control, or searching out video poker machines and good comps, AND risk money to take advantage of a small shift in odds that might still be trumped by variance... No, but thanks.

Quote: FrankScoblete

I think a huge thrill from gambling is the anticipation of what is about to happen or could be about to happen. That anticipation is the up before the decision, the down if the decision is a loser, then a quick up as money is placed on the next decision, then another up if that decision wins, then another anticipatory feeling on the next wager and so on. I guess it would be safe to say that much of random gambling is in the player's head.

I agree 100%! The moment before the cards are turned... the second during which the dice are bouncing.... that represents potential. There is nothing like it.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

These are matters of personal opinions.

Yes. And we are debating them as if they were absolute truths. Which is why I am disagreeing with the entire premise rather than the arguments contained within.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

In almost 20 years going to casinos, I've never once heard someone say, "let's go to the casino to have fun." It's always, "let's go to the casino and make some money."

You should join Mrs and me some time; you'll have a blast!

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Quote: FrankScoblete

However, there are good worthless bets and bad worthless bets. If you play blackjack and use basic strategy, you will lose but the contest will be close, around one-half percent.

I am pretty uncomfortable saying a bet is worthless. There are ignorant gamblers, of course. I remember once the Cannery in North Las Vegas was playing a small stakes blackjack game that had a player advantage if you played correct basic strategy (even without counting). I think they would simply ask you to leave if you were counting. Even at that people didn't rush to the Cannery to play.

I don't personally find roulette odds bad if you are playing 36:1 payouts. Normally you would pay much worse odds to get that large of a payout.

I watched a young woman look totally blissed out playing the Big Wheel, literally squealing with delight every time she won, so who am I to tell her that she's an idiot.

I enjoy putting some money on bad proposition bets in craps. I know exactly how bad the odds are, but it makes the game more fun. To me it is a trade off between payoff and odds. I just think you should know what you are tradeing.

I love the play "King Lear." The best production I ever saw was the one with Laurence Olivier as King Lear. Just brilliant!