Buzzard's Horse System

Quote: treetopbuddy

Will Take Charge wins Rebel. 425K Keeneland Yearling purchase. By Unbridled Song out the a Dehere mare....the great champion, Take Charge Lady. Will Take Charge is now worth 10 million minimum when syndicated as a stallion If he can win a classic race, 20 million or more. The Sport of Kings.

10 million for winning the Rebel? Lol

Reread post FinsRule. He will be syndicated for 10 million if he never runs again. 20 million or more if can win a classic. Japanese buyers could pay up to 50 million if horse can win Kentucky Derby. Lol

Quote: treetopbuddy

Reread post FinsRule. He will be syndicated for 10 million if he never runs again. 20 million or more if can win a classic. Japanese buyers could pay up to 50 million if horse can win Kentucky Derby. Lol

And I'm saying no horse is worth 10 million for winning only the rebel

Well, I'm in the Thoroughbred racing business in Kentucky....if that means anything to you. It's my policy to not makeup shit. goof.

I respect your posts. Not that one though. It's ok, you exaggerated. No big deal.

This was a grade 2 race won by a head by a horse that was 28-1 and was so well thought of that Lucas put his 2nd stringer on him. And now he can be syndicated for 10 million if he never ran again? We dont even know what his figure was. The time was nothing special though.

The horse might turn out to be something, but as of now, he's definitely not worth 10 million, I don't care what your job is.

Quote: FinsRule

I respect your posts. Not that one though. It's ok, you exaggerated. No big deal.

This was a grade 2 race won by a head by a horse that was 28-1 and was so well thought of that Lucas put his 2nd stringer on him. And now he can be syndicated for 10 million if he never ran again? We dont even know what his figure was. The time was nothing special though.

The horse might turn out to be something, but as of now, he's definitely not worth 10 million, I don't care what your job is.

"I don't care what you job is," really? FinsRule, you simply have not a clue. Your way over your head here. As an owner/trainer/breeder and bloodstock agent, I think I'm allowed to weigh in here with some authority. God knows there is no shortage of "experts" on WOV. Well, I'm the horse racing expert. When I say the horse is worth 10 million, it's worth 10 million. The horse has proven himself a top class racehorse and could be syndicated right now for 10 million. He has a half brother Take Charge Indy a 15 plus million dollar stallion. Stick to trying to pick winning horses.

And take charge Indy won the Grade I Florida Derby over top class horses. Out of AP Indy. Will Take Charge has not proven anything. If he is worth 10 million right now, the owners are idiots if they haven't agreed right now to that deal.

And if you think he is worth 10 million, then you must not be good at your job in the horse industry. Sorry.

Quote: FinsRule

And take charge Indy won the Grade I Florida Derby over top class horses. Out of AP Indy. Will Take Charge has not proven anything. If he is worth 10 million right now, the owners are idiots if they haven't agreed right now to that deal.

And if you think he is worth 10 million, then you must not be good at your job in the horse industry. Sorry.

Take Charge Indy is not "out of" A.P. Indy. He didn't come out of A.P Indy's belly. He is "by" A.P. Indy. Your don't understand pedigrees and I wouldn't expect you to....the horse just won a Grade 2 race.....he has proven himself a racehorse. You simply don't understand the Fyou money that makes up the high end of the horse racing market. 10 million dollars for a class racehorse with a great female family is peanuts. If he regresses, he will be taken out of training and retired to a farm in Kentucky or send overseas where the real money is.....again stick to trying to pick winners. Sorry.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Take Charge Indy is not "out of" A.P. Indy. He didn't come out of A.P Indy's belly. He is "by" A.P. Indy. Your don't understand pedigrees and I wouldn't expect you to....the horse just won a Grade 2 race.....he has proven himself a racehorse. You simply don't understand the Fyou money that makes up the high end of the horse racing market. 10 million dollars for a class racehorse with a great female family is peanuts. If he regresses, he will be taken out of training and retired to a farm in Kentucky or send overseas where the real money is.....again stick to trying to pick winners. Sorry.

Ok, if we're going to nitpick...

"Your don't understand pedigrees" doesn't make sense.

"...or send overseas" doesn't make sense.

What is Fyou money?

Winning one grade 2 race doesn't mean anything. I'm not going to list you a bunch of Grade II winning horses that are crap, but I could.

10 million is not peanuts.

Quote: FinsRule

And take charge Indy won the Grade I Florida Derby over top class horses. Out of AP Indy. Will Take Charge has not proven anything. If he is worth 10 million right now, the owners are idiots if they haven't agreed right now to that deal.

And if you think he is worth 10 million, then you must not be good at your job in the horse industry. Sorry.

Since your the Bloodstock expert could you please tell me the value of I'll Take Charge as a stallion. Since last discussion the colt won the Grade 1 Travers and a second in the Jerome running a 106 or 107 Beyers speed figure.

Welcome back, not enough horse knowledgeable people on here. Especially me at times .

thanks Buzzard....tough 30 days.

At least you had live racing ? Been doing a 6 year sentence in Grand Junction. GRRRRRR

hard to beat live racing.....you could go to Craig, CO for live horse racing a couple of weeks every summer. Fair circuit.

Live horse racing is pretty much a sucker's bet. Most casinos games, including slots have better odds considering the high track hold.

To each his own. I find it hard not to fall asleep when playing BJ. Watching poker players make the same dumb decisions can wear you down too.

Quote: Keyser

Live horse racing is pretty much a sucker's bet. Most casinos games, including slots have better odds considering the high track hold.

You don't take into account the fact that it is a Parimutuel pool. There are bargains to be had. I've seen harness races go off with 99% of the place pool on a single horse. End result, that horse breaks and your $2 place bet on a very strong horse pays over $80. At the smaller tracks especially, a single person can skew the odds so much that there are outrageous odds.

If you played the horses like you did the slot machines, you'd bet $2 to win on the #3 horse every race. How can you compare them?

Given the incredibly high track cut here in the US, it's hard to imagine how you could find enough advantageous bets to win in the long run.

As gambler's have become wiser, the racetracks have had to offer casino games that offer better odds in order to stay alive.

A progressive slot machine or poker machine could offer a better advantage if the pot has reached a certain limit.

-Keyser

Some of the comments here are clueless. There are many professional horse players.

Quote: Keyser

Given the incredibly high track cut here in the US, it's hard to imagine how you could find enough advantageous bets to win in the long run.

Wouldn't you always expect to come out ahea, especially "in the long run" if you are making "advantageous bets"?

The key is to stick to the advantageous bets, and not bet every race. It's not a lottery. Smart players don't play their favorite numbers.

Not in the US. The only people making the money are abroad and are exploiting the rebate process.

There's two different points.

1. There are few professional horse players. - TRUE

2. There are people that make money annually playing horses - TRUE

To me, professional means that a majority of your income comes from that source. There are not many horse players that fall in that category. But there are many that finish ahead annually because it's a game of skill.

the key thing is to identify possible overlays and bet them only....in a few minutes in the 7th race at mountaineer, the 9 horse, good's secret is a good example, sitting at
16-1 right now.

What about the 3 in the 8Th? 9/2 seems good

how about either of you explaning your valuation ?

Quote: ontariodealer

the key thing is to identify possible overlays and bet them only....in a few minutes in the 7th race at mountaineer, the 9 horse, good's secret is a good example, sitting at
16-1 right now.

Remember your overlay is someones underlay......an overlay is simply your opinion based on your handicapping methods.

Quote: FinsRule

And take charge Indy won the Grade I Florida Derby over top class horses. Out of AP Indy. Will Take Charge has not proven anything. If he is worth 10 million right now, the owners are idiots if they haven't agreed right now to that deal.

And if you think he is worth 10 million, then you must not be good at your job in the horse industry. Sorry.

Yo, FinsRule, bloodstock expert......what is Will Take Charge's value as a stallion, now? Since your very disrespectful post^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Will Take Charge has won the Travers, Pennsylvania Derby and second in the Jerome. He's won nearly two million dollars and is in the mix for 3 year old Horse of the Year. You have not a clue. Yes, I standby my claim the horse was worth 10 million after winning the Rebel and will not defend the position. Don't have to......The money that wealthy people throw at horses is incomprehensible to you. Stick to your 2 dollar bets at Arlington.

Quote: FinsRule

There's two different points.

1. There are few professional horse players. - TRUE

2. There are people that make money annually playing horses - TRUE

To me, professional means that a majority of your income comes from that source. There are not many horse players that fall in that category. But there are many that finish ahead annually because it's a game of skill.

Slight problem here. If you win at the bookmakers you get banned or restricted. With Boylesports the maximum bet they will accept from me on a 13/8 chance is SEVEN pence!

Quote: treetopbuddy

Stick to your 2 dollar bets at Arlington.

Wow, that is funny to me. LOL ZING!!

It would have been even more rude if you said "Stick to your $2 bets on the chalk at Arlington."

Someone said there are professional horse bettors out there. Name a few please. Please don't point to some writer. Just a person who is known for making his money solely on betting horses. I only know what i see. Its almost a cliche in every major sports and race book. Same broke guys, usually in groups of three, betting there last $2 while securing their drink tickets. I have known countless horse betters, guys who have had wonderful opportunities and made gobs of money on VP and slots, only to piss it all away on the horses.

I know there are unique situation in just about everything having to do with gambling that create a positive situation.Ii cant cant see how with simply handicapping horses can be beat

I play semi professionally....i know three guys who play for a living. There are some pro's at paceadvantage.com, the best site for serious players. I am trying to find a link to an article I read a few days ago that you may find enlightening.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/racinghub/archive/2013/09/16/horse-racing-needs-a-new-box.aspx

Quote: FinsRule

And take charge Indy won the Grade I Florida Derby over top class horses. Out of AP Indy. Will Take Charge has not proven anything. If he is worth 10 million right now, the owners are idiots if they haven't agreed right now to that deal.

And if you think he is worth 10 million, then you must not be good at your job in the horse industry. Sorry.

Good job Treetopbuddy for picking out class horse. It appears as if Will Take Charge has proven something. Second in Breeder Cup classic beaten by a short nose for it all.....a 3 year year. Impressive! He will be the Eclipse Award winning 3 year old Champion. Treetopbuddy wants to know what Finsrule values Will Take Charge as a stallion .....now.

Quote: Buzzard

My system is to bet on a horse than has a 50% chance of winning the race.

You lost me right there. How does one determine the probability of any given horse winning?

Send 10.00 to..... Buzzard, Grand Junction, Co. and the secret will be reveled.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Send 10.00 to..... Buzzard, Grand Junction, Co. and the secret will be reveled.

Wizard, there is NO FREE LUNCH IN USA AND CANADA.

Will Take Charge won the Clark. Didn't see the race as my jail cell didn't come with T.V. Wonder what Finsrule values the stallion at now. Yes, he was worth 10 million after winning Rebel last spring.

If Will Take Charge stays healthy, horse racing might have a real star.

Will Take Charge won the Clark. Didn't see the race as my jail cell didn't come with T.V. Wonder what Finsrule values the stallion at now. Yes, he was worth 10 million after winning Rebel last spring.

If Will Take Charge stays healthy, horse racing might have a real star.

Quote: ontariodealer

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/racinghub/archive/2013/09/16/horse-racing-needs-a-new-box.aspx

Thanks for link.....cancelled my subscription to Blood Horse years ago. Horse racing never changes. Most tracks are being subsidized by the casinos. They let the enemy into their camp. Beginning of the end.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Will Take Charge won the Clark. Didn't see the race as my jail cell didn't come with T.V. Wonder what Finsrule values the stallion at now. Yes, he was worth 10 million after winning Rebel last spring.

If Will Take Charge stays healthy, horse racing might have a real star.

Probably about 15-20 mil.

I guess you want to keep talking about this, so we can.

I'd like one example of any horse that was sold for 10 million as a stallion that had never won or placed in a Grade I race.

It seems silly that you keep bringing up the fact that you think he was worth 10 mil, and I think he was worth 5 mil. What a silly argument to have. Then, you're using his current success to prove something. All I said after the Rebel was that he needed to prove his worth and he did.

So, keep arguing buddy. I'm not sure what you're trying to prove because unless you have facts, this is just your opinion versus mine and the people I talked to.

Quote: FinsRule

the people I talked to.

Wow, you actually talked with people that might actually have an idea as how to value bloodstock.....good for you Old Sport.....keep listening and you might learn something.

Quote: Buzzard

My system is to bet on a horse than has a 50% chance of winning the race. Hopefully he will go off more than even money. Or I can key him in a Daily Double or Pick Three to lessen the house edge. At a minimum I know not to bet against him.

I will bet a horse with a 25% chance of winning if he is 10 to 1 or greater. I will bet him across the board as show price alone will average over $6 in a field of 8 or more. I do not bet short fields ever !
link to original post

Horse racing season starts next week. I've never been to the simulcast lounge at the casino, but I may check it out. I have no idea how to bet. $2 you say? I won't go broke on that but there might be a couple dozen races. I've thought about betting the favorites to at least Show. If they do better than Show, would I still win?

Quote: ChumpChange

Quote: Buzzard

My system is to bet on a horse than has a 50% chance of winning the race. Hopefully he will go off more than even money. Or I can key him in a Daily Double or Pick Three to lessen the house edge. At a minimum I know not to bet against him.

I will bet a horse with a 25% chance of winning if he is 10 to 1 or greater. I will bet him across the board as show price alone will average over $6 in a field of 8 or more. I do not bet short fields ever !
link to original post

Horse racing season starts next week. I've never been to the simulcast lounge at the casino, but I may check it out. I have no idea how to bet. $2 you say? I won't go broke on that but there might be a couple dozen races. I've thought about betting the favorites to at least Show. If they do better than Show, would I still win?
link to original post

horse racing is all year long - when one or more tracks end their meet other tracks start their meets

if you want to bet favorites to show - it's best to do it when there are at least 8 runners or the payouts if the the horse shows can be very low - quite often in a 5 or 6 horse field the return on a $2.00 bet on the fave to show is just $2.10 - or only 5% profit

yes, if they do better than show your bet wins

horses bet down to below even money such as 3/5 will usually pay very little to show even with 8 runners or more

.

So that means if I bet $2 and it wins $2.10, I only won 10 cents and not $2.10? Like it's "Pays $2.10 for $2" instead of "Pays $2.10 to $2" (slightly better than even money bet payout)? If that's so, I'll have to look for payouts of $4 or better to make a $2+ profit.

Quote: ChumpChange

So that means if I bet $2 and it wins $2.10, I only won 10 cents and not $2.10? Like it's "Pays $2.10 for $2" instead of "Pays $2.10 to $2" (slightly better than even money bet payout)? If that's so, I'll have to look for payouts of $4 or better to make a $2+ profit.
link to original post

That is correct. The amount listed is the payout and not win amount. If you bet $2 and it paid $3 you made $1.

If you bet a horse to "Show" you will win if it comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

Quote: ChumpChange

So that means if I bet $2 and it wins $2.10, I only won 10 cents and not $2.10? Like it's "Pays $2.10 for $2" instead of "Pays $2.10 to $2" (slightly better than even money bet payout)? If that's so, I'll have to look for payouts of $4 or better to make a $2+ profit.
link to original post

yes
it's not really possible to forecast when a show bet will pay $4.00 for a $2.00 bet - and that is pretty rare - show payouts on the fave tend to be very low

the tracks only show the probable payout (odds) on the horses to win - and even that can be very wrong if there is big late betting

they don't show the probable payouts on show or place bets - you have to make an educated guess

if you want to approach an even money payout you might want to consider betting to "place" which means your bet will win if your horse finishes 2nd or first

of course a place bet will lose more often than a show bet

but a place bet on a fave who goes off for example at 2/1 in a 10 horse field will often pay somewhere around even money - which would show a payout of $4.00

just a thought - how you bet is of course up to you

horse racing is in decline and one of the ways the tracks have dealt with the problem is to offer races with smaller fields - there are a great no. of races which go of with just 5, 6 or 7 runners which means low payouts on bets on the fave to place and show

on the weekends you are more likely to find races with larger fields which is the only way you could get a decent payout on a show bet on the fave

.

I was thinking about just going to the Pari-mutuel Window and making bets there, but this is the internet age and something else is happening. Odds change prior to race time and it's a feeding frenzy of bettors out there. I guess just buying a $2 ticket will pay whatever the race time price will be. Some of these online sleuths can lock in better prices somehow prior to race time. I don't know if I should be relying on a phone betting app instead of the betting window or what.
But this video has a strategy for winning. Bet what you want to win, not what you want to bet. Like if I'm trying to run a progression, bet amounts that would payout to the progression instead of betting amounts of the progression.



Online accounts get shut down once you start winning. Got to find a betting shop.



What are the different kinds of wagers. I'll assume all the horse racing veterans know all this already. There may be some wagers not mentioned here though.



This guy has feelings about how to bet with a small bankroll of $500 or $1,000. Bet 2% or 3% of the bankroll per race. Do not bet every race, pick 2 or 3 races you are confident in. He prefers to bet on Winner that pays 5 to 2 or better, then use the Winner pick on the 2nd place of his Exacta bet and pick another horse to win and that bet pays at least $10. He says other players bet $2 on Winner and $4 on Place (for the same horse) so the horse pays twice if it comes in 1st and makes up for losing if it comes in 2nd. He says he won over 85% of his Show bets but they paid so little, one little loss just negates all his wins.



I've got my strategy all figured out to bet $2 on Win and $4 on Place. Now at what point do tax forms turn up at the Pari-mutuel Window and what's the maximum bets or payouts? I get the feeling there's a $500 max bet so I'll be stuck at $250 Win/$500 Place bets that could get me to a $10K bankroll after 70 races ahead

1. Horse Racing, Dog Racing, Jai Alai, and Other Wagering Transactions Not Discussed Later
File Form W-2G for every person to whom you pay $600 or more in gambling winnings if the winnings are at least 300 times the amount of the wager.

Well, there's no chance of getting a tax form just betting Win and Place is there? Getting payouts of $5K or more on a single ticket will get me a tax form.
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https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/betting-faq
NYRA Bet Cancellation Policy
Please examine your mutuel tickets carefully. The New York Racing Association is not responsible for ticket sales not completed before the machines are locked. Additionally, no adjustments, including cancellations, can be made once the race begins. Non-account wagers can be cancelled at self-service terminals, but with a limit not to exceed $50. Wagers placed on NYRA Bets Account Cards or Cash Cards can be cancelled at self-service terminals, but with a limit not to exceed $500 on win, place, show wagers and/or $50 on any one single combination for all exotic wagers. Please note that wagers on NYRA Cash cards cannot be cancelled at teller windows.

Rule for Uncashed Tickets
Pari-mutuel tickets not cashed within 10 days of purchase that have a value of $300 or more must be redeemed at IRS-designated windows. The patron needs to provide a name, home address, date of birth and social security number. This requirement is part of a new rule that was opposed by the New York Racing Association, but still implemented by the New York State Racing & Wagering Board. Please note that unless the payout on the ticket is 300-1 or higher and in excess of $600, the patron’s information will not be reported to the IRS. The same requirements apply for tickets cashed by mail that meet these parameters.

Do I have to report my winnings to the IRS?
The Internal Revenue Service requires reporting of payouts on wagers or group of identical wagers that exceed odds of 300 to 1 and pay in excess of $600. IRS regulations also require automatic 24% withholding on payouts that exceed $5,000. Please note that for non-US residents, IRS regulations require automatic withholding of 30% on wagers that exceed odds of 300 to 1 and pay in excess of $600. Windows designated for IRS winning tickets are located on all floors. Patrons must present a picture ID (driver’s license or non-driver’s state ID, federal, state, or city ID, passport, or NYRA ID). A second form of identification showing the patron’s social security number must also be presented. Effective 9/27/17 New IRS regulations: When betting and receiving paper tickets, the 300-1 threshold will be calculated based on the total amount bet on a single physical ticket in a single track/day/race/pool. When betting with a NYRA Bets Account or NYRA Cash Card, the 300-1 threshold will be calculated based on the total net amount bet through a single electronic account on a single track/day/race/pool.
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Might get a cash card for racing. https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/cash-card
Do Cash Cards Expire?
No. However, after three years without activity (a deposit, withdrawal, or wager) we are forced to treat the account as abandoned property and provide any remaining balance to New York State.
Please be advised that all regular wagering rules apply to Cash Cards. You must be at least 18 years of age or older to use Cash Cards and play the races.
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The House Advantage! https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/nyra-wagering-info
TAKEOUT INFORMATION
Takeout (percentage of each dollar wagered retained by racetrack)
• 15 percent – Pick 5, Pick 6
• 16 percent – Win, Place, Show
• 18.5 percent – Exacta, Quinella, Daily Double
• 24 percent – Trifecta, Superfecta, Grand Slam, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 (carryover days)

Picking Your Horse
There is no right or wrong way to pick a horse. Here are some approaches that may work well for you:

Look at Past Performances in the NYRA Bets store to see how each horse has done in its most recent start.
Make a selection based on jockeys or trainers. Check out our NYRA leaderboard to see who is doing well during the current meet.
Find out who the experts like. Every track offers analysis from their in-house handicappers. Check out our NYRA Bets Expert Picks.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: ChumpChange

So that means if I bet $2 and it wins $2.10, I only won 10 cents and not $2.10? Like it's "Pays $2.10 for $2" instead of "Pays $2.10 to $2" (slightly better than even money bet payout)? If that's so, I'll have to look for payouts of $4 or better to make a $2+ profit.
link to original post

yes
it's not really possible to forecast when a show bet will pay $4.00 for a $2.00 bet - and that is pretty rare - show payouts on the fave tend to be very low

the tracks only show the probable payout (odds) on the horses to win - and even that can be very wrong if there is big late betting

they don't show the probable payouts on show or place bets - you have to make an educated guess
link to original post

They can't really show the probable payouts on place or show bets because what they pay depends on who else finished in the top two / three.

The way it works is, after the track removes the "cut" - a fixed percentage of the bets, usually set by the state - it then allocates enough money to the winning place/show horses to cover the bets. The remaining money is divided equally among the two / three winning horses, where it is paid off to the betters in proportion to what they bet.

Let me give you an example - I hope I have this right:
Suppose a total of $100,000 is bet to place on a race; $10,000 of that is bet on horse #1, and $20,000 on horse #2.
Horse #1 wins the race, and horse #2 finishes second, so anyone who bet either horse to place won that bet.
Assume the cut is 15%; that leaves $85,000 in the place pool.
$10,000 goes to the horse 1 place pool, and $20,000 to the horse 2 place pool; that leaves $55,000.
Half of that - $27,500 - goes to the horse 1 place pool, and the other half to the horse 2 place pool. Never mind that there was twice as much money bet on horse 2 to place as horse 1; the split at this point is even.
There is now $37,500 in the horse 1 place pool, which goes to the $10,000 bet on it; for every $2 bet (traditionally, the minimum win / place / show bet is $2, so those bets are usually paid off in terms of a $2 bet), you would win 37,500 / 10,000 x 2 = 7.50.
There is $47,500 in the horse 2 place pool, which goes to the $20,000 bet on it; a $2 bet pays 47,500 / 20,000 x 2 = 4.75.
In most states, they round down to the nearest dime, so a $2 place bet on horse 2 pays 4.70.
In others, like California, they round down to the nearest 20 cents, so a $2 place bet on horse 1 pays 7.40 and one on horse 2 pays 4.60.
I have also seen tracks that round to the penny.

Not sure I've seen it at a horse track, but I have been to dog tracks and jai-alai frontons where they show the money bet for each runner for win/place/show on the video tote screens. I would often use this data to make my place & show bets. The data was usually a couple minutes behind; so I never really knew for sure if I was making a good bet or not, but occasionally, I would cash a decent place or show ticket.

Unfortunately, there's only one or two frontons and exactly zero dog tracks left in FL.

If you bet online you can see all the pool totals. Most live tracks have this info as well.