Buzzard's Horse System

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February 16th, 2013 at 8:46:58 PM permalink

Feb 17 9th Race HIGH TWIST Last Race Maiden Special Race Purse Value $ 39,000
Today Maiden Claim $15,000 Purse Value $ 15,000

Jockey Change today to Rosie Napravnik Leads in both Race won and Money won.

Ran second last race to .50 favorite, despite lugging out and going 5 wide in stretch.

Trainer Steve Asmussen in 3rd place at Fair Grounds. He also trained the .50 favorite.

High Twist went out on top in 22 1/5, 46 2/5 and winners time was 1:11 3/5.

No other horse has shown early speed, the closest contended being 7th at the 1/4 pole.

There are several first time starters, and all have unimpressive workouts.

It's the last race on the card, so maybe I will get the 8/5 in the morning line, but I doubt it.

If I had to bet an Exacta, I would put Catch The Hit second, but this field is so bad he might

be too short a price. In that case 3 down from 50-1.

****************** HIGH TWIST *****************

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Buzzard

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February 16th, 2013 at 9:28:27 PM permalink

If I had a big bankroll, I might consider a small edge. But plays are few and far between. The old adage is you can beat a race and not the races. Horses are not machines or card games. System may work for a while and then stop as suddenly as they started.
I am just posting my picks, no more and no less. Feel free to bet or not.

But if you want to lay me 2 to 1 on my short price horses, let me know ! Or the 8/5 in the morning line :

Fair Grounds - Sunday, February 17, 2013
Race 9 - 4:55 PM Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Super Hi-5
MAIDEN CLAIMING $15,000 � $12,500
Purse $15,000. (Includes $7,000 � Other Sources). For Accredited La Bred Maidens, Three Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, if for $12,500, allowed 1 lb. Six Furlongs.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Taylor's Grand (LA) 3/C L1 $15,000 J Jacinto 120 J LeBlanc 12/1
2 2 Burning Force (LA) 3/C L $15,000 R E Eramia 120 P Mouton 12/1
3 3 Magic Candy (LA) 3/C L $15,000 C J Hernandez 120 C J Woodley 20/1
4 4 Goodzee Toughzee (LA) 3/C L $15,000 M Mena 120 W E Hawley 4/1
5 5 Catch the Hit (LA) 3/G L $12,500 J Riquelme 119 H F Ladner, Jr. 6/1
6 6 Kenzie's Heat (LA) 3/C L $15,000 J Theriot 120 F Leggio 8/1
7 7 Captain Nistel (LA) 3/G L1 $15,000 B J Hernandez, Jr. 120 M Burgess 8/1
8 8 Just too Smart (LA) 3/C $15,000 J Graham 120 B Landry 12/1
9 9 High Twist (LA) 3/C L $15,000 R Napravnik 120 S M Asmussen 8/5
10 10 Montana Winds (LA) 3/C L1 $15,000 J Melancon 120 A Sider 12/1

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

coilman

coilman

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February 17th, 2013 at 2:55:41 PM permalink

Buzz you playing with the grandkids college funds on this one?

$14000+ out of $16000 in the win pool and paying 1/9

hope you are alive with the double paying $22 with a $21 winner in the first half

coilman

coilman

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February 17th, 2013 at 2:59:09 PM permalink

Confirmation
Your Wager has been accepted.
The ticket number is: 46885129156571
Please print this screen for your records.

www.HPIBET.com

February 17, 2013

Race 9 Fair Grounds

$5 | EXA
9 / 5-8

4 Bets | Total: $20

46885129156571

FleaStiff

FleaStiff

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February 17th, 2013 at 3:29:54 PM permalink

The only reliable system I ever had was to take my co-workers recommendations on a horse ... and bet them to PLACE or to SHOW. Only once did any of my co-workers with their "hot tips" ever pick a horse that actually came in first!

Each week someone had to buy an "office" lottery ticket... and I was the only one who ever bought a ticket and declared it to be the office ticket prior to the results being available.

Buzzard

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February 17th, 2013 at 3:50:58 PM permalink

8/5 Morning line Pays $2.40 Good thing even money shots ran second in 6th and 8th race. Otherwise this horse would have been 8th consecutive winning favorite. Would have paid $2.20 instead.

3 down from 50 to 1 on tote did catch the $34 exacta, but $2.40 sucks.

Stable did good, collected win tickets and horse was claimed for $15,000. Gee, who could have seen that coming ? LOL

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

treetopbuddy

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February 17th, 2013 at 4:03:32 PM permalink

Quote: coilman
Confirmation
Your Wager has been accepted.
The ticket number is: 46885129156571
Please print this screen for your records.

www.HPIBET.com

February 17, 2013

Race 9 Fair Grounds

$5 | EXA
9 / 5-8

4 Bets | Total: $20

46885129156571

damn Buzzard....what's wrong with 2.40 on a 2.00 bet. That's a 20% return in 73 seconds. 1/5,2/5,/3/5 horses can be very good bets in larger win pools. Short price horses at tracks where win pools are under 20,000 can't be trusted (like larger pools can be). One drunk cowboy can distort win pools at smaller tracks. The aforementioned horses win at 85% plus clip. .20 x 85=170-150 for losses= +20. Odds-on horses can be overlays. Everybody and their brother is trying to beat the chalk simply because....welll.. horse players are not the most affluent bunch. In most cases with selected oods-on horses your simply betting the horse doesn't break down or jockey doesn't fall off.

Each day is better than the next

Bhappy

Bhappy

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February 17th, 2013 at 4:12:41 PM permalink

I know nothing about races. My strategy is to have fun. Yesterday we went to races, and I found out that superfacta costs only 10 cents. we would pick 4 horses, bet every combination of those 4 numbers for a $2.40. We played 7 races, and won superfacta 3 times. Next time I will refine my strategy. Yesterday, we were picking 4 numbers from Tipsheets. Next time, I will wait, and pick 4 numbers with lowest odds. I need to figure out how to use those damn machines. I hate standing in lines.

treetopbuddy

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February 17th, 2013 at 4:17:17 PM permalink

Quote: Bhappy
I know nothing about races. My strategy is to have fun. Yesterday we went to races, and I found out that superfacta costs only 10 cents. we would pick 4 horses, bet every combination of those 4 numbers for a $2.40. We played 7 races, and won superfacta 3 times. Next time I will refine my strategy. Yesterday, we were picking 4 numbers from Tipsheets. Next time, I will wait, and pick 4 numbers with lowest odds. I need to figure out how to use those damn machines. I hate standing in lines.

The atmosphere at the track can be as exciting as the hottest craps table. You can be outside and enjoy at the most beautiful animals on earth. .......10 cent super lines are going to be long.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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February 17th, 2013 at 4:42:40 PM permalink

Super Ninety Nine tomorrow in the Southwest? Would make my future bet look a lot better.

treetopbuddy

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February 17th, 2013 at 4:56:10 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
Super Ninety Nine tomorrow in the Southwest? Would make my future bet look a lot better.

7/5 M/L on the nice Pulpit colt. What did you get him for in Derby Futures Pool?

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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February 17th, 2013 at 5:34:06 PM permalink

$10 at 47-1. Also have him in a few exactas.

treetopbuddy

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February 17th, 2013 at 5:40:48 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
$10 at 47-1. Also have him in a few exactas.

excellent......horse looks like the real deal. Baffert will have him tightened down for this one......he trains his horses HARD....they are always fit.

Each day is better than the next

Buzzard

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February 17th, 2013 at 6:41:50 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
The atmosphere at the track can be as exciting as the hottest craps table. You can be outside and enjoy at the most beautiful animals on earth. .......10 cent super lines are going to be long.

I grew up a mile from Pimlico race track. Late 1950's. Collecting for a bookie who took bets at the drugs store on Park Heights Avenue, right across from the track. On Preakness day would park car at $5 a pop on front lawn of houses on Rogers Avenue. Of course the home owners were surprised when they returned later.

Horses also ran at Bowie & Laurel and the bullrings, Timonium, Bel Air, Hagerstown and Havre De Gras. Timonium has survived, runs 2 weekends with State Fair. I used to run bets from guys on the wrong side of chain link fence seperating the track from the fair.
They were barred for various reasons.

Now I am stuck in a one horse town. And I do mean trapped. 3 daughters 9 granddaughters and Josie loves her church.

I hate watching races on tv or computer SUCKS.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Bhappy

Bhappy

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February 17th, 2013 at 7:06:24 PM permalink

Quote: Buzzard

Now I am stuck in a one horse town. And I do mean trapped. 3 daughters 9 granddaughters and Josie loves her church.

I hate watching races on tv or computer SUCKS.

So you are the only male surrounded by 13 ladies. I hope you do not have Unusual last name. Your last name should be put on endangered last name list.

Buzzard

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February 17th, 2013 at 8:11:18 PM permalink

Well, I have apologized to the horse. Oldest grand daughter 13, all others are 8 and under. Like I said, I'm trapped !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

cclub79

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February 18th, 2013 at 5:05:40 AM permalink

Lots of rain today at Oaklawn. Does that throw a caution flag on S99?

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 5:56:10 AM permalink

Quote: cclub79
Lots of rain today at Oaklawn. Does that throw a caution flag on S99?

He's shipping for the first time, never raced on off track or at Oaklawn. I don't have the form so only guessing here. May want to look to a local horse that is showing improving speed figures. S99 will also have to overcome the "curse of the coverage"....That being said, Baffert has been cleaning up on Derby prep races at Oaklawn. Look at S99's Tomlison number. At Oaklswn on the slop it's could turn out to be a merry-go-round race. Nobody passing anybody.

Each day is better than the next

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 6:02:45 AM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
I grew up a mile from Pimlico race track. Late 1950's. Collecting for a bookie who took bets at the drugs store on Park Heights Avenue, right across from the track. On Preakness day would park car at $5 a pop on front lawn of houses on Rogers Avenue. Of course the home owners were surprised when they returned later.

Horses also ran at Bowie & Laurel and the bullrings, Timonium, Bel Air, Hagerstown and Havre De Gras. Timonium has survived, runs 2 weekends with State Fair. I used to run bets from guys on the wrong side of chain link fence seperating the track from the fair.
They were barred for various reasons.

Now I am stuck in a one horse town. And I do mean trapped. 3 daughters 9 granddaughters and Josie loves her church.

I hate watching races on tv or computer SUCKS.

What a great place to grow up. I know the neighborhood has changed dramatically since you were there. I go to the Preakness most every year and the police presence there is incredible.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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February 18th, 2013 at 6:31:53 AM permalink

Quote: cclub79
Lots of rain today at Oaklawn. Does that throw a caution flag on S99?

Ugh. Not what I wanted to hear.

cclub79

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February 18th, 2013 at 7:46:39 AM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
Ugh. Not what I wanted to hear.

We might luck out actually. The Weather Channel had a big green splotch on the whole state this morning when I was waking up. But now it doesn't look as scary:

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/Hot+Springs+AR+USAR0276:1:US

I'm smarting over a big loss when too many Baffert horses battled yesterday, and I backed the wrong one:

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-shakin-it-passes-first-test-taking-san-vicente

Buzzard

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February 18th, 2013 at 11:07:57 AM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
He's shipping for the first time, never raced on off track or at Oaklawn. I don't have the form so only guessing here. May want to look to a local horse that is showing improving speed figures. S99 will also have to overcome the "curse of the coverage"....That being said, Baffert has been cleaning up on Derby prep races at Oaklawn. Look at S99's Tomlison number. At Oaklswn on the slop it's could turn out to be a merry-go-round race. Nobody passing anybody.

No need to buy a form. Sign up at Equibase free. Then click entries for that day. You can click on horse and get charts for every race he ran. Slow way to handicap, but the price is right. Also my vitual stable is great for watching for a hosre to come back.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Buzzard

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February 18th, 2013 at 11:11:25 AM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
What a great place to grow up. I know the neighborhood has changed dramatically since you were there. I go to the Preakness most every year and the police presence there is incredible.

I was there for block busting in the 60's. Used to hustle pool at neighborhood bars on all them crooked streets like Dellwood Avenue.
Left in early 80's Sure things have gone really downhill since then. Just a question of time till Pimlico sells the Preakness and closes down ?

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 11:43:35 AM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
I was there for block busting in the 60's. Used to hustle pool at neighborhood bars on all them crooked streets like Dellwood Avenue.
Left in early 80's Sure things have gone really downhill since then. Just a question of time till Pimlico sells the Preakness and closes down ?

Maryland racing/breeding is in big trouble. As you know casinos provide welfare for horse racing. Horse racing can't compete with the instant gratification that casino games provide. No casinos in Maryland. Americans have lost their connection to the horse. Churhill Downs loses money. We'll always have horse racing. Just fewer tracks. I can see how that would have been a colorful area for a young lad back in the day.

Each day is better than the next

Buzzard

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February 18th, 2013 at 12:22:02 PM permalink

Park on a side street, free admission after the 7th race, pick a form and Jack's Green card off the ground, bet the feature race and
usually the 9th was a route race. Beat the hell out of tv or the iternet LOL

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 1:58:12 PM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
Park on a side street, free admission after the 7th race, pick a form and Jack's Green card off the ground, bet the feature race and
usually the 9th was a route race. Beat the hell out of tv or the iternet LOL

Don't forget about the parlay cards

Each day is better than the next

RonC

RonC

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February 18th, 2013 at 2:20:43 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
Maryland racing/breeding is in big trouble. As you know casinos provide welfare for horse racing. Horse racing can't compete with the instant gratification that casino games provide. No casinos in Maryland. Americans have lost their connection to the horse. Churhill Downs loses money. We'll always have horse racing. Just fewer tracks. I can see how that would have been a colorful area for a young lad back in the day.

It looks like Maryland horse racing is getting support from the casinos...and much more to come:

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-12-17/sports/35886094_1_maryland-jockey-club-stronach-group-maryland-horses

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 2:31:13 PM permalink

Quote: RonC
It looks like Maryland horse racing is getting support from the casinos...and much more to come:

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-12-17/sports/35886094_1_maryland-jockey-club-stronach-group-maryland-horses

Didn't realize Maryland approved slots......it's sad that horse racing can't do it alone. Horse racing has invited the enemy into it's camp which I believe will be their (horse industry) undoing at some point. The "free" money will kill innovation.

Each day is better than the next

cclub79

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February 18th, 2013 at 2:49:45 PM permalink

22 minutes to Post, and Super 99 is 3/5...

Buzzard

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February 18th, 2013 at 3:18:58 PM permalink

Sweetheart deal looks like horse racing owns the state legislature. Gee, Pimlico has been here for 150 years and have destroyed our customer base with the outrageous take, admission fees, parking fees, etc. So it is only fair that casino's pay us a fee to operate. Take it right out of taxpayer's pocket to do so. Attendance will dwindle, handle will drop. What a joke.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

cclub79

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February 18th, 2013 at 3:20:43 PM permalink

Quote: cclub79
22 minutes to Post, and Super 99 is 3/5...

Went off at Even Money and won in a ROMP! By double digits! Wow what a contender...

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 3:57:05 PM permalink

Quote: cclub79
Went off at Even Money and won in a ROMP! By double digits! Wow what a contender...

Top class colt. Wins by 11 1/4 pays even money. Sealed sloppy track.....sealed track played to his speed. Trouble line....let out notch, ridden out....didn't see race but is an impressive chart.

Each day is better than the next

Keyser

Keyser

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:01:06 PM permalink

Horse racing is a suckers bet. There is no way to win in the long term. Virtually every casino game has a much lower house edge (including 00 roulette).

Buzzard

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:06:28 PM permalink

Actually carryovers on some pick 6's have a positive edge. Plus spending a day outdoors can be a nice break.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:17:22 PM permalink

Quote: Keyser
Horse racing is a suckers bet. There is no way to win in the long term. Virtually every casino game has a much lower house edge (including 00 roulette).

Keyser, horse racing is pari-mutual wagering. Horse players are competing against each other, not the house. The odds are not fixed. Money for state, track, horsemen, etc. comes out before race goes off. Track doesn't care who does or doesn't win. Since nobody ever wins gambling......that's what your saying....right? How to you handle your losses? I've know and have known several professional horse players through the years. The takeout is stiff but it can and is overcome. Rebate shops help soften the takeout. You meant to say "betting on horses is a sucker's bet"....

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:33:12 PM permalink

I have Keyser blocked. That is why.

Anyway, I'm quite happy with my 47-1 as of this moment. Visions of winning Derby exactas going through my head....

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:40:51 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
I have Keyser blocked. That is why.

Anyway, I'm quite happy with my 47-1 as of this moment. Visions of winning Derby exactas going through my head....

you're alive....wonder if Baffert will be taking him back west or if colt stays around for Rebel or Arkansas Derby.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:46:23 PM permalink

If I had to guess... Baffert takes him back to Cali, rests him to Arkansas Derby.

How about Mizdirection today? I tried to beat her with In The Stars, and couldn't. Jim Rome is happy tonight.

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:50:41 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
If I had to guess... Baffert takes him back to Cali, rests him to Arkansas Derby.

How about Mizdirection today? I tried to beat her with In The Stars, and couldn't. Jim Rome is happy tonight.

Rome is livin' the life....lucky bastard.

Each day is better than the next

treetopbuddy

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February 18th, 2013 at 4:56:03 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
If I had to guess... Baffert takes him back to Cali, rests him to Arkansas Derby.

How about Mizdirection today? I tried to beat her with In The Stars, and couldn't. Jim Rome is happy tonight.

Rome gets her for 50,000 in 2yr old in training sale......what a deal....lucky bastard

Each day is better than the next

Keyser

Keyser

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February 18th, 2013 at 10:43:04 PM permalink

In the long run, horse racing is flat out, a suckers bet. The only people making the money are the Australians that are exploiting the rebate syndicates.

The fact that it's pari mutuel isn't helping because of the very high track hold. The notion that you can overcome such a large house edge via some magical handicapping skills is absurd at best. Even penny slots offer a better pay back.

Show me someone that claims to be making money handicapping the horses and I'll show you someone that likely has a gambling problem.

Regarding Fins rule: The truth hurts sometimes. Sorry.

treetopbuddy

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February 19th, 2013 at 7:29:54 AM permalink

Quote: Keyser
In the long run, horse racing is flat out, a suckers bet. The only people making the money are the Australians that are exploiting the rebate syndicates.

The fact that it's pari mutuel isn't helping because of the very high track hold. The notion that you can overcome such a large house edge via some magical handicapping skills is absurd at best. Even penny slots offer a better pay back.

Show me someone that claims to be making money handicapping the horses and I'll show you someone that likely has a gambling problem.

Regarding Fins rule: The truth hurts sometimes. Sorry.

Your the first person in these forums that I've come across, that has indicated that somebody somewhere is making money gambling. It's the "the Australians that are exploiting the rebate syndicates". Who knew? Since you lose gambling why not join the Aussies and exploit the rebate syndicates? So what game do you lose the least amount of money in...?

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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February 19th, 2013 at 9:21:37 AM permalink

There is a difference between "difficult to make money in" and "a sucker bet"

I would say horse racing is the former. But saying anyone who makes a horse racing wager is making a sucker bet is completely unfair.

treetopbuddy

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February 19th, 2013 at 9:54:56 AM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
There is a difference between "difficult to make money in" and "a sucker bet"

I would say horse racing is the former. But saying anyone who makes a horse racing wager is making a sucker bet is completely unfair.

yes, nobody has ever won betting on horses in the short run or long run. All horse bettors are suckers according to Keyser. I've made money betting on horses every year for 30 straight years. I know professional horse players. I know of professional horse players. I've forgotten more about horse racing than this Keyser dude ever knew. He's trolling the horse racing forum trying to stir things up.....which is great.

Each day is better than the next

cclub79

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March 16th, 2013 at 1:41:15 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
If I had to guess... Baffert takes him back to Cali, rests him to Arkansas Derby.

How about Mizdirection today? I tried to beat her with In The Stars, and couldn't. Jim Rome is happy tonight.

S99 running today in the Rebel...ML favorite at 3/2, but has to deal with Delhomme. Post time 6:48EDT

treetopbuddy

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March 16th, 2013 at 5:14:05 PM permalink

Will Take Charge wins Rebel. 425K Keeneland Yearling purchase. By Unbridled Song out the a Dehere mare....the great champion, Take Charge Lady. Will Take Charge is now worth 10 million minimum when syndicated as a stallion If he can win a classic race, 20 million or more. The Sport of Kings.

Each day is better than the next

cclub79

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March 16th, 2013 at 5:20:05 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
Will Take Charge wins Rebel. 425K Keeneland Yearling purchase. By Unbridled Song out the a Dehere mare....the great champion, Take Charge Lady. Will Take Charge is now worth 10 million minimum when syndicated as a stallion If he can win a classic race, 20 million or more. The Sport of Kings.

How about the D Wayne Lukas Exacta, 2 bucks pays $275!

treetopbuddy