Triple bet system

i read about martingale doubling bet system but

What is the probability of a tripling bet system though? can it work?

lets say i go with 5 15 45 135 405 1215....98415. Will it be profitable at
some point?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO it cannot work- systems dont work

haha thanks for the reminder, i feel that its up to the individual to balance luck against gameplay to achieve a sizeable win and not lose.

but can someone do a possibility calculation or simulation. i believe this system will be be more +ev against martingale doubling system

Quote: wsmax777

What is the probability of a tripling bet system though? can it work?

Not 100% of the time.
It is an excellent choice BTW, over just the 2xMarty, when one MUST play a negative progression on any two 2to1 bets at Roulette.

Quote: wsmax777

lets say i go with 5 15 45 135 405 1215....98415. Will it be profitable at
some point?

Sure. When You win the first bet.
Up $5.
No losing bets at all.
Just keep it up.

How you plan on using it???
What game, what bet?

Good Luck in your learning

it wont work, first off, what casino would even let you get to the seventh bet, and and the 11th bet no one even has a bankroll to support it, so no point in running a sim

thanks for the encouragement by 7craps and to address the issue highlighted by strictlyAP. Martingale also operates on the system that we have indefinite bankroll. i mentioned that i believe betting systems dont work because i understand that we have a limited bankroll and table limits at the highest roller stakes probably reach about a million i dont know?

just want to do a similar computer simulation to that as opposed to martingale to find out whether its more +ev to do so.

martingale system gives you even odds win at any point of your bet but the triple bet system gives you a bigger win instead at any point of your bet.

Quote: wsmax777

thanks for the encouragement by 7craps and to address the issue highlighted by strictlyAP. Martingale also operates on the system that we have indefinite bankroll. i mentioned that i believe betting systems dont work because i understand that we have a limited bankroll and table limits at the highest roller stakes probably reach about a million i dont know?

just want to do a similar computer simulation to that as opposed to martingale to find out whether its more +ev to do so.

martingale system gives you even odds win at any point of your bet but the triple bet system gives you a bigger win instead at any point of your bet.

Size of bankroll and table limits don't have anything to do with EV. The EV is 1-HE where HE is the house edge on whatever wager you're making.

Your expected loss is the HE x total amount wagered. You're wagering almost 50% more than the 2x progression (you both start with 1 unit bet, otherwise you bet 3 to his 2), so your expected loss is 1.5x his.

Yes to echo your statement it does not relate to bankroll and table lmit. +ev definition is (+EV means player has edge over house). according to most of the rules that i have read there is no such thing as +ev whichever game you play at the casino or the edge +ev might be just 0.0x that is almost marginal. hence casino games are generally -ev.

just need someone to do a simulation or calculation to show whether it is more +ev to do a triple bet system over martingale double bet. maybe like a graph side by side to compare would be helpful too. would appreciate it thanks!

I tested it on 10 spins, works great. Empty your savings,
burn rubber to the casino. Great system for getting comps.

Why?

A simulation will show the same thing common sense will. Neither is +ev, neither changes the edge (at all). The graph won't help.

to evenbob: casino burns everyone money except those who are lucky enough to win and walk away lol. 10 consecutive spins does not make the test cut. if you were to lose 10 consecutive spins you lose whichever betting system you use anyway.

assuming out of 10 spins i win one hand using martingale i would have just breakeven if i had suffered an earlier loss.
triple bet ensures you make a profit each time you win even though your losses are greater at any point

to dwheatley: there is a graph showing all the games showing how -ev varies over time. you might want to check out other websites which provide such info. if someone does the graph i wonder whether it might show a better result than martingale betting system.

Quote: wsmax777

to evenbob: casino burns everyone money except those who are lucky enough to win and walk away lol.

I think I was being a smartass. Sorry.

Chill bro you were just telling the truth. but why do people still go to casinos to lose i wonder ;). its a profitable industry for sure

deleted

Quote: wsmax777

i read about martingale doubling bet system but

What is the probability of a tripling bet system though? can it work?

lets say i go with 5 15 45 135 405 1215....98415. Will it be profitable at
some point?

I can do it easily, I have an excel ready, where I just put the progressive bets and it will calculate it based on 10,000 random numbers and I can run it as much times as I want.
If you really want I can do it, since it's not too much effort

But the difference between this one and the regular martingale, will be just higher winnings and higher losses when you lose and it will balance it.
On the contrary, if you wanna last longer, you should look for low progressive bets, this way you risk less.

Btw, if you're just interested to know on the short run, then you will win more while risking to lose more in case you lose and getting to the table max limit faster (though, you can just switch to a higher bet table) which means higher chance of losing, since you cannot double up as much.

Quote: wsmax777

i read about martingale doubling bet system but

What is the probability of a tripling bet system though? can it work?

lets say i go with 5 15 45 135 405 1215....98415. Will it be profitable at
some point?

OK...

Let's do Roulette, but we're going to do a $5/$500 Table. You could go higher, but it makes no difference in EV. Craps would also be better than Roulette, but betting system advocates seem to love Roulette, for whatever reason.

$5-$15-$45-$135-$405

Win First Attempt: +$5

Win Second Attempt: +$10

Win Third Attempt: +$25

Win Fourth Attempt: +$70

Win Fifth Attempt: +$205

Lose All: -$605

First Attempt: 18/38 = 0.47368421052631576 * 5 = 2.368

Second Attempt: 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.2493074792243767 * 10 = 2.493

Third Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.13121446274967194 * 25 = 3.280

Fourth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.0690602435524589 * 70 = 4.834

Fifth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.03634749660655731 * 205 = 7.451

LOSE ALL: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 = 0.04038610734061924 * -605 = -24.434

TOTAL: -4.008

Average Bet Total

First Attempt: 18/38 = 0.47368421052631576 * 5 = 2.368

Second Attempt: 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.2493074792243767 * 20 = 4.986

Third Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.13121446274967194 * 65 = 8.529

Fourth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.0690602435524589 * 200 = 13.812

Fifth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.03634749660655731 * 605 = 21.99

LOSE ALL: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 = 0.04038610734061924 * -605 = 21.99

TOTAL: 73.68

73.68 * 18/38 = 34.90105263157895

73.68 * 20/38 = 38.77894736842105

Difference: 34.90105263157895 - 38.77894736842105 = -3.8778947368421015

73.68 * .05263 = 3.8777784000000004

Hypothesis

-4.008 + 3.8777784000000004 = $-0.1302216

I'm trying to figure this one out, because that big of difference cannot be due to rounding. According to that, your system actually has a slightly BIGGER edge for the House than their normal 5.263%.

4.008/.05263 = 76.15 (as an average bet)

I could be wrong, but I think it might be because you have already lost $200 at the time that you make your fifth bet of $405, which you are more likely to lose than you are to win. Either that, or I did something wrong somewhere. I can assure you that your system will result in something not reduce the HE or result in a positive edge for you, though.

Quote: Mission146

OK...

Let's do Roulette, but we're going to do a $5/$500 Table. You could go higher, but it makes no difference in EV. Craps would also be better than Roulette, but betting system advocates seem to love Roulette, for whatever reason.

$5-$15-$45-$135-$405

Win First Attempt: +$5

Win Second Attempt: +$10

Win Third Attempt: +$25

Win Fourth Attempt: +$70

Win Fifth Attempt: +$205

Lose All: -$605

First Attempt: 18/38 = 0.47368421052631576 * 5 = 2.368

Second Attempt: 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.2493074792243767 * 10 = 2.493

Third Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.13121446274967194 * 25 = 3.280

Fourth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.0690602435524589 * 70 = 4.834

Fifth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.03634749660655731 * 205 = 7.451

LOSE ALL: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 = 0.04038610734061924 * -605 = -24.434

TOTAL: -4.008

Average Bet Total

First Attempt: 18/38 = 0.47368421052631576 * 5 = 2.368

Second Attempt: 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.2493074792243767 * 20 = 4.986

Third Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.13121446274967194 * 65 = 8.529

Fourth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.0690602435524589 * 200 = 13.812

Fifth Attempt: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 18/38 = 0.03634749660655731 * 605 = 21.99

LOSE ALL: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 = 0.04038610734061924 * -605 = 21.99

TOTAL: 73.68

73.68 * 18/38 = 34.90105263157895

73.68 * 20/38 = 38.77894736842105

Difference: 34.90105263157895 - 38.77894736842105 = -3.8778947368421015

73.68 * .05263 = 3.8777784000000004

Hypothesis

-4.008 + 3.8777784000000004 = $-0.1302216

I'm trying to figure this one out, because that big of difference cannot be due to rounding. According to that, your system actually has a slightly BIGGER edge for the House than their normal 5.263%.

4.008/.05263 = 76.15 (as an average bet)

I could be wrong, but I think it might be because you have already lost $200 at the time that you make your fifth bet of $405, which you are more likely to lose than you are to win. Either that, or I did something wrong somewhere. I can assure you that your system will result in something not reduce the HE or result in a positive edge for you, though.

I get an average bet of 76.1193898143814 and average loss of 4.00628367444113 for a house edge of 5.263%

Quote: wsmax777

Chill bro you were just telling the truth. but why do people still go to casinos to lose i wonder ;). its a profitable industry for sure

I go to a casino because I like the competition..., I like the feel..... I like the occassional AP opportunities..... Yes I still expect to lose.....

As far as your system.... There are other questions you could ask.... examples--- $10 roulette table

1. I am starting with $1000, is my system more likely to get me to double my money than flat betting a color?
2. I am starting with $1000, is my system more likely to allow me to play for an hour than a regular martingale?
3. I am starting with $1000, and I have a win goal of $200, what is the likelihood I will be successful with my system?

Depending on your goals, there are questions that can be reasonably answered, so long as you realize that you will never turn a negative expectation game like roulette into a positive one by using a betting system.

Quote: wsmax777

there is a graph showing all the games showing how -ev varies over time.

This is awesome. Is is a straight line?

Quote: miplet

I get an average bet of 76.1193898143814 and average loss of 4.00628367444113 for a house edge of 5.263%

Thanks for the correction, Miplet!

I don't know where the Hell I went wrong on the average bet, but the difference between -4.006 and -4.008 average loss probably was due to rounding, so at least I got that much right...

Quote: Mission146

Thanks for the correction, Miplet!

I don't know where the Hell I went wrong on the average bet, but the difference between -4.006 and -4.008 average loss probably was due to rounding, so at least I got that much right...

Found it:

Quote:

LOSE ALL: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 = 0.04038610734061924 * -605 = 21.99 24.43

Quote: miplet

Found it:

Quote:

LOSE ALL: 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 * 20/38 = 0.04038610734061924 * -605 = 21.99 24.43

Thanks again, Miplet!

Seeing that, I can tell you exactly what I did wrong: I did the equation for the average bet on losing four and then winning one, and then I assumed that LOSE ALL would be the same, from an average bet standpoint, because it is the same number of bets. I failed to consider that the probabilities of each bet occuring still play a factor (and not just number of bets + total amount bet) in each result.

I'm still relatively dumb, but I feel a little better now that I know it was just a faulty assumption.