Need urgent help.
January 27th, 2013 at 10:54:50 AM
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Can someone do a simulation of 100,000 or 1 million shoes and on average how many shoes start out with a run of 6 Players or more? Ties are ignore.
For example,
P B......
P
P
P
P
P
Ex: a run of 6 Players or more, ignore ties.
P
P
T
P
P
T
P
P
P
......
Thanks in advance.
For example,
P B......
P
P
P
P
P
Ex: a run of 6 Players or more, ignore ties.
P
P
T
P
P
T
P
P
P
......
Thanks in advance.
January 27th, 2013 at 10:59:32 AM
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uh oh
Thank you, Thank you very much.
January 27th, 2013 at 11:06:15 AM
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Quote: gracelanduh oh
Love the signature graceland! Just don't leave the building.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
January 27th, 2013 at 11:16:32 AM
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I did 364 shoes, I got positive return. But the sample size is small. Hoping someone can give me some data.
January 27th, 2013 at 11:18:15 AM
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didnt run a simulation but can I ask why you need it for?
there is ZERO edge in betting it if you are looking for a streak, it doesnt matter whether it is to start the shoe or finish or the middle , ZERO Pattern EVER
there is ZERO edge in betting it if you are looking for a streak, it doesnt matter whether it is to start the shoe or finish or the middle , ZERO Pattern EVER
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
January 27th, 2013 at 11:26:54 AM
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.446^6=1 in 127.
(1-.459)^6=1 in 40. but I suppose 2 or 3 of these are ties. So, (1-.459)^9=1 in about 250.
(1-.459)^6=1 in 40. but I suppose 2 or 3 of these are ties. So, (1-.459)^9=1 in about 250.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 27th, 2013 at 11:28:45 AM
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I love betting systems.Quote: KiraCan someone do a simulation of 100,000 or 1 million shoes and on average how many shoes start out with a run of 6 Players or more? Ties are ignore.
Had to dig around for this one.
8 deck, a 2 million shoe simulation
averages only (not the actual distribution)
Player: 1 in 136 shoes
Banker: 1 in 118 shoes
(results are very close to just doing the calculations)
run mean recurrence time formula =(1/(p^n)-1)/(1-p)
p = prob of success
n = run length
Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
January 27th, 2013 at 11:30:23 AM
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I'm not following a streak, I'm betting against it at the beginning of the shoe using martingale 5 (1,2,4,8,16). I did 364 shoes, 5 shoes have a run of 6 Players or more.
1+2+4+8+16+(.05+.1+.2+.4+.8)= 32.55( including 5% fee for each bet) round up to 33 units. I'm risking 33 units to win 1 unit. Each shoe I lose I would lost 33 units, if I win I would win 1 unit per shoe.
Base on 364 shoes, profit = (364-5)-33(5) = 194 units. Average win 194/364 = 0.53 unit.
The sample size is small. I don't know if it would give a possitive return in a long run.
1+2+4+8+16+(.05+.1+.2+.4+.8)= 32.55( including 5% fee for each bet) round up to 33 units. I'm risking 33 units to win 1 unit. Each shoe I lose I would lost 33 units, if I win I would win 1 unit per shoe.
Base on 364 shoes, profit = (364-5)-33(5) = 194 units. Average win 194/364 = 0.53 unit.
The sample size is small. I don't know if it would give a possitive return in a long run.
January 27th, 2013 at 11:32:11 AM
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1 in 127 ????
(127-1)-33 = 93 units of profit. Positive return in a long run??
1/127 odd of losing 33 units is .8% odd of winning 1 unit 99.2%.
Average return 93/127= 0.73 units
(127-1)-33 = 93 units of profit. Positive return in a long run??
1/127 odd of losing 33 units is .8% odd of winning 1 unit 99.2%.
Average return 93/127= 0.73 units
January 27th, 2013 at 11:35:05 AM
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1 in 136 is even better lol
(135-1)-33(1) = 101 units
Average profit 101/135 = 0.74 unit.
(135-1)-33(1) = 101 units
Average profit 101/135 = 0.74 unit.
January 27th, 2013 at 11:44:08 AM
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Quote: Kira
I don't know if it would give a possitive return in a long run.
Of course not. The house edge is unaffected by your betting system, and will still cause you to suffer a loss in the long run.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 27th, 2013 at 11:54:56 AM
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Check my calculation, I still get positive return betting this way, is this a good way to bet?
January 27th, 2013 at 12:05:02 PM
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yeah, that cant be even close.Quote: Kira1 in 136 is even better lol
That sim has to be re-done or it is badly labeled.
But you only bet for 5 hands and then stop??
Why not 6 hands and stop?? Better yet, the first 10 hands then stop.
So you really fear 5 losses in a row because you only bet against Player for 5 hands??
This is unheard of.
Player 8 deck win probability p=0.49317517
1 / (p^6) = 69.50
1 / (p^5) = 34.28
Many can show a profit when the results are not exactly perfect over a small sample size.
Flip a fair coin 10 times, 10 times, and see how many times you get exactly 5H5T.
Good Luck
what casino are you going to take a lot of money from first??
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
January 27th, 2013 at 12:08:57 PM
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Why 5 hands? Because the loss increases so high if you lose 6th hand after 5 loses in row. By the time you lost 6 hands in row, you dont have enough winning units to cover that loss.
January 27th, 2013 at 12:29:44 PM
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this should end well
January 27th, 2013 at 12:36:14 PM
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Quote: KiraBy the time you lost 6 hands in row, you dont have enough winning units to cover that loss.
you should win 1 unit at the end of any completed sequence. 1+2+4+8+16+32=63 units lost. The next bet is 64, which covers those losses + 1 unit.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 27th, 2013 at 12:44:24 PM
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But what power says you have to make a 32 unit bet after 5 Ls in a row?Quote: KiraWhy 5 hands? Because the loss increases so high if you lose 6th hand after 5 loses in row. By the time you lost 6 hands in row, you dont have enough winning units to cover that loss.
Just increase the bet to cover the net losses and the Banker vig and you are home free.
Seems to me you are stopping way to early at 5 hands.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
January 27th, 2013 at 12:45:03 PM
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With all due respect, how do you know when and where the shoe is going to end?
January 27th, 2013 at 12:51:19 PM
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Quote: KiraWith all due respect, how do you know when and where the shoe is going to end?
? Well, your first post says the shoe starts out with this sequence. 8 decks is 416 cards. Even if both P and B draw to 3 cards for each of these 6 hands, there's still at least 380 cards to go...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 27th, 2013 at 1:22:32 PM
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Quote: KiraThe sample size is small. I don't know if it would give a possitive return in a long run.
1. No, this isn't going to give a positive return in the long run. As with all of these systems, you have a high probability of a small win, and a small probability of a very large loss. The product of the loss amount and probability of that large loss will be higher than the product of the win amount and probability of winning.
2. Why is this urgent?
3. There are a million ways to illustrate why this doesn't give you anything positive in the long run. The best one I heard was from someone on this board a while ago, regarding a similar system for roulette, or craps, or some other casino game. Imagine 6 different players are making bets of 1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 respectively, but 1 at a time. The first guy only bets 1 if it's the beginning of the shoe, and never again. The second guy only bets 2 if the first guy lost, and never again. Same deal for the other guys. You'd probably concede that none of them have a winning system - most of them are just sitting around most of the time, and occasionally flat betting. If they're all playing with a negative expected return, mashing it together will not make it positive.
Sorry, but this is system is a loser.
January 27th, 2013 at 2:01:09 PM
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system is a complete waste of time unfortunately, its not different then playing roulette and betting black for 6 in a row after the number 14 comes out, you can really think this works or is URGENT
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
January 27th, 2013 at 2:18:57 PM
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Everyday, somewhere in the world, somebody discovers
the Marty and start buying Cadillacs and diamonds, in
their imaginations. I love it so..
the Marty and start buying Cadillacs and diamonds, in
their imaginations. I love it so..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 27th, 2013 at 2:26:55 PM
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Quote: G71Why is this urgent?
Uh, because if someone figures it out before him then the casino will figure out a way to stop people from doing it. Obviously.
January 27th, 2013 at 2:41:10 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleUh, because if someone figures it out before him then the casino will figure out a way to stop people from doing it. Obviously.
Yup. Even ol John Patrick discovered the Marty in Vegas
in the 50's, playing 10 cent roulette. He won steadily with
it for 2 weeks then lost his whole BR. Thought he had world
on a string for 2 weeks, though.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 27th, 2013 at 4:03:02 PM
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Quote: Kira
The sample size is small. I don't know if it would give a possitive return in a long run.
I do know. It will not.
Just think deeply about this...... Do you REALLY believe that there would be a betting system so simple,that actually works, that NOBODY in the history of playing baccarat would have stumbled upon it........ until you.... ???
For whatever it is worth, I think you forgot to include your first 5 losing bets.... you are risking 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 33 = 64 units, NOT 33.
