Can I get some opinions on my roulette strategy?

And some double checking of things? Because according to my math, my systems wins in the long run.

Here is my system.

Choose a number to bet on, and if I lose, I just add one more chip than last time.
So bet 1 would be risking 1 for a chance to win 35
bet 2 would be risking 2 for a chance to win 70 and so on.
I keep adding 1 more chip each time until I reach 25, then I restart.
The chances of hitting a certain number in 25 spins is 50% (36/37)^25 = .504
The risk is 325$, meaning if i lost all 25 spins, I would lose 325$

Here is a break down of each spin

spin #/ amount won/ Risk/ Actual amount won
1-------35------------- -1------ 35
2-------75------------- -3------69
3-------105------------ -6 ------ 102
4-------140------------ -10------ 134
5-------175------------- -15 ------165
6-------210------------- -21------ 195
7-------245------------- -28 ------ 224
8-------280------------- -36------ 254
9-------315 ------------- -45 ------ 279
10------355------------- -50 ------ 305

11 ------- 385 ----------- -66 ------ 330
12 ------- 420 ----------- -78 ------ 354
13 ------- 455 ----------- -91------ 377
14 ------- 490 ----------- -105------ 399
15 ------- 525 ----------- -120 ------ 420
16 ------- 560 ----------- -136 ------ 440
17 ------- 595 ----------- -153 ------ 459
18 ------- 630 ----------- -171 ------ 477
19 ------- 665 ----------- -190 ------ 494
20 ------- 700 ----------- -210 ------ 510
21 ------- 735 ----------- -231 ------ 525
22 ------- 770 ----------- -253 ------ 539
23 ------- 805 ----------- -276 ------ 552
24 ------- 840 ----------- -300 ------ 564
25 ------- 875 ----------- -325 ------ 575

Since the risk is 325, I separated the first 10 spins. the average of 1-10 spins is 176.
the average of spins 11-25 is 467. The chances of earning higher than the risk amount (if i win) is 2/3

So lets say I use the system 6 times. Since the average rate of win of 50%, i lose 3, I win 3.
lose = -325, so 325 x 3 = 975 loss
but for my 3 wins, I would average 166, 467, and 467, which = 1110
1110-975 = 135 profit in 6 tries of the system.

So what do you guys think?

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Quote: sodawater

I'd like to purchase your system. Do you have a pamphlet I can buy?

What? o.o
I'm not selling anything. This is just something I thought of a few weeks ago, and I'm having trouble seeing where I went wrong, since no system is suppose to work.
I wouldn't even know how to go about selling a system or making a pamphlet XD

Quote: ecchiowl

Because according to my math, my systems wins in the long run.
...
So what do you guys think?

Your math is bad.

Edit: The probability of each row occurring is not equal. You have a fairly large chance of losing 25 spins in a row on one number: even on 0 roulette, you have 50% chance of losing it all. The other outcomes do not weighted-average out to a win.

elaborate?

Quote: sodawater

I'd like to purchase your system. Do you have a pamphlet I can buy?

I already bought this system and retired to Dollyworld
on the profits. I'll sell it to you for $1.50..

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Quote: ecchiowl

Because according to my math, my systems wins in the long run.

Only the casino ever wins in the long run. Everyone else just drinks, eats, screws, dreams... and then goes home. The house edge applies at all times. Short term you can be lucky or unlucky, but in the long run... its the house that wins!

>So what do you guys think?
Its as good as any other system but if its not as much fun then look for a different system.

The catch is that it's more likely you'll win on the first spin than the second, the second than the third, etc., and crucially, the tenth than the eleventh, eleventh than the twelfth... because it's less likely you'll get to each subsequent spin. If you weight your average win with that in mind, and count all the spins together rather than compounding your rounding error by separating them, you'll find this strategy is a loser to the tune of the average amount bet times the house edge.

According to my math, you're going to lose 5.263% over the long haul.

"Can I get some opinions on my roulette strategy?"

Sure.
I think it would be exciting to watch you play this method!
I also think it would be fun to watch 5 players at the same time play this method with different numbers bet.

Quote: ecchiowl

The chances of hitting a certain number in 25 spins is 50% (36/37)^25 = .504

I think you know you showed the probability of NOT hitting your number in 25 spins.

Quote: ecchiowl

So what do you guys think?

You need to add another column to your table for the probability of winning at each spin.
A few others have mentioned that each step does not have the same prob of winning.

The math is simple for the new column
((36/37)^(Spin#-1)) * (1/37)
should return something like this.
Prob
0.027027027
0.026296567
0.025585849
0.024894339
0.024221519
0.023566884
0.022929941
0.022310213
0.021707234
0.021120552
0.020549726
0.019994328
0.019453941
0.018928159
0.018416587
0.017918841
0.017434548
0.016963344
0.016504876
0.016058798
0.015624776
0.015202485
0.014791607
0.014391834
0.014002865

Now you can multiply each value by your net win and add them up.
You win prob: P=0.495896843
Your average win after some attempts, no just one, is $158.0879219

You lose prob: 0.504103157
Your average loss after some attempts, no just one, is $163.8335261

You can get all sorts of info like the average number of bets needed and so on by the sum-product of 2 columns.

If you want to win, say 2 times in a row, that would be P^2
or about 1 in 4 would be successful.

If 1,000,000 players followed your method,
only 245,913, on average, would win 2 in a row for an average win of $316.18. There is a lot of variance so the wins could go higher, but do not count your chickens before they hatch, I say.

Some would win the first time and lose the second time, flip, most would say... I'm done here.
Many (about 1 in 4)
would lose both times for a total loss of $650.
Ouch! Losing 2 times in a row takes the fun out of playing this system.
I think they are done too.
Not all can be winners.


So, your perceived advantage came from not doing all the required math.

But I still say, I will watch you play this whenever you try,
and I would be cheering for you to win!

Have a Nice Day

24Bingo is absolutely correct.

You have a system that can only lose one way v. the ability for the system to win on any given spin. Eventually, for those times that you do lose the amount will overcome your wins to the tune of 5.26%. The only fundamental difference between your negative-progression system and any other is that you are making a bet on something that is less likely to win, but pays out at a higher amount (relative to the bet) for each win. Ultimately, your system will prove to be no different in the long run than slapping the Martingale or Labouchere on Red, except your failure rate will be greater than something such as a $5-$320 Martingale on Red.

Edit: 7Craps was also posting at the same time, I also concur with 7Craps.

To win at Roulette: find a warped wheel.

Don't tell Paigowdan that I posted this......please...ha ha ha