Very short session Martingale
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:05:01 AM
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I realize that with a negative expectation game all betting systems are worthless over an extended period of time. What about over a very very short period of time though? I've read that in any session you can expect the dealer to win 48-49% of the hands while the player win percentage is only 42-43%, leaving 8-9% as pushes. If my session goal was to only win 5 units then shouldn't I generally be able to accomplish this in 12-15 hands? Using a simple Martingale system what would the probability be that I would lose 5 consecutive hands before winning 5 hands overall if I was playing only 12-15 hands? 6 consecutive hands?
September 27th, 2012 at 12:08:46 AM
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Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
September 27th, 2012 at 12:10:55 AM
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Oh the Martingale discussion, here we go again.....
September 27th, 2012 at 12:13:58 AM
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Quote: NicksGamingStuffOh the Martingale discussion, here we go again.....
I'm not advocating for the system to win anyone a butt load of money. I'm simply trying to figure out what the odds are for a very short session. 12-15 hands.
September 27th, 2012 at 5:58:48 AM
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Quote: BlkjckMulligoonI'm not advocating for the system to win anyone a butt load of money. I'm simply trying to figure out what the odds are for a very short session. 12-15 hands.
12-15 hands is too long of a session.
If I wanted to make $5, I might use it in a 2-3 hand session. About an 85% chance of it working in a 3 hand session depending on the game (BJ is the worst to use). After that, the risk starts becoming too great. A 15 hand session, HA. You only need about 150K for that.
September 27th, 2012 at 7:05:49 AM
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For 5 hands, here are the rough numbers starting with a $100 bet:
48%
24%
12%
6%
3%........roughly 97% chance of winning $100
$100
$200
$400
$800
$1,600.....3% chance of losing $3,100
These numbers are close but not exact. From memory, you have a 47.5% chance at winning one hand. Plus I did not calculate the plus side if you get a blackjack.
P.S. I hate this system!!! In MLB this year, I went 5-0 and 0-5 in the same week. Variance....ouch.
48%
24%
12%
6%
3%........roughly 97% chance of winning $100
$100
$200
$400
$800
$1,600.....3% chance of losing $3,100
These numbers are close but not exact. From memory, you have a 47.5% chance at winning one hand. Plus I did not calculate the plus side if you get a blackjack.
P.S. I hate this system!!! In MLB this year, I went 5-0 and 0-5 in the same week. Variance....ouch.
September 27th, 2012 at 9:02:28 AM
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Why is it you want to do this "Double Up To Catch Up" for "X" hands rather than the Win, Press, Win Again, Press Again system? I mean if you think that a quick dip into the Negative Expectation waters for some arbitrarily short time will prove profitable, why not go for a quick dip into those same waters for a winning session?Quote: BlkjckMulligoonI'm not advocating for the system to win anyone a butt load of money. I'm simply trying to figure out what the odds are for a very short session. 12-15 hands.
October 12th, 2012 at 8:20:03 AM
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Dangerous martingale system is the fact that rates are rising rapidly. I recommend playing Fibonacci sequence or the Labouchere system.
I play with PlayBets Casino.
October 12th, 2012 at 11:19:11 AM
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I agree and use a positive progression when not counting. I use the Fibonacci of 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and top bet of 8.
I buy in with 5 units. 15 unit max loss for the day.
You go back to one unit after a losing hand.
Anyone can PM me with their email address for BJ chapter for free. Too long to post here. 7 pages
I buy in with 5 units. 15 unit max loss for the day.
You go back to one unit after a losing hand.
Anyone can PM me with their email address for BJ chapter for free. Too long to post here. 7 pages
October 12th, 2012 at 10:29:51 PM
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The bottom line is that you are risking a lot of money to try to get a small win. Sure, you will win most of the time. But when you lose, you will lose a lot. And your occasional losses add up to more than all your small wins.
By modifying your betting strategy and bankroll, you can set the probability of a win as high as you want it. But you will always be risking too much to justify it.
By modifying your betting strategy and bankroll, you can set the probability of a win as high as you want it. But you will always be risking too much to justify it.
January 20th, 2013 at 10:09:07 AM
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To lose 5 times in a row is a chance of 2.88% or 1 turn out of 34.77.
If you're going to play 15 hands means, 15/34.77, that averagely it should happen once out of 2-3 times.
Try to minimize the amount of games, by increasing the bet, this way your chance to lose is lower, however that one time that you will lose... you will lose more.
But if you're going to play only one time in your life, then this "strategy" is better for you =)
If you're going to play 15 hands means, 15/34.77, that averagely it should happen once out of 2-3 times.
Try to minimize the amount of games, by increasing the bet, this way your chance to lose is lower, however that one time that you will lose... you will lose more.
But if you're going to play only one time in your life, then this "strategy" is better for you =)
February 24th, 2013 at 7:57:56 PM
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There are 32 possible combinations in 5 turns of a 50/50 bet, so you will win 1 unit 31 times and loose 31 units 1 time.
In my second last session I was playing Big and Small on Sic Bo. I lost my first 9 bets. It took another 45 turns to break even. I ended with a 87 unit gain ($5.00 chips).
On several occasions I have lost 15+ in sequence. If I recall correctly my longest string of losses was 17 hands of Blackjack. I use a negative progression of my own design that permits 25 successive losses. Any time I have 25 more losses than wins in any order I get wipped out. I need 40% wins to breakeven. I loose my bankroll once every 5 sessions.
In my second last session I was playing Big and Small on Sic Bo. I lost my first 9 bets. It took another 45 turns to break even. I ended with a 87 unit gain ($5.00 chips).
On several occasions I have lost 15+ in sequence. If I recall correctly my longest string of losses was 17 hands of Blackjack. I use a negative progression of my own design that permits 25 successive losses. Any time I have 25 more losses than wins in any order I get wipped out. I need 40% wins to breakeven. I loose my bankroll once every 5 sessions.
Whom the Gods Would Destroy They First Mock
February 24th, 2013 at 11:51:20 PM
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I suppose the harm in it [besides psychological harm] is that you are betting more by definition. More dollars up against the house edge.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 25th, 2013 at 7:17:13 AM
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I am happy with the progression, it is about as good as one can get. I'll share it with anyone who wants to know. My main focus now is on bet selection in games offering opposing wagers. Statistically it should not matter but experience tells me that knowing when to be defensive and aggressive is important. Though I don't know if this is really possible in practice.
Whom the Gods Would Destroy They First Mock
