How did my baccarat system survive 100 shoes?
The Wizard states all betting systems are worthless (including Martingale), but it seems like this one works pretty well in the short run.
To my amazement, I managed to win 3471 units of profit over the 100 shoes and I got hit with only one unlucky streak of 7 straight losses in shoe #53. By shoe #57, I was able to completely recoup all losses from that streak.
For all the math people here, what is the probability of reproducing similar results in the casino if my bankroll is large enough for 8 separate sessions (1024 units)?
What is the probability of doubling my bankroll to 2048 units before going broke?
Assume I play EZ baccarat with no banker commission and bet on both banker and player. If I lose 7 hands in a row, I restart my system and bet 1 unit.
Quote: drjohnnyFor the past month I've been testing a 7 step Martingale system over 100 hand-dealt shoes.
The Wizard states all betting systems are worthless (including Martingale), but it seems like this one works pretty well in the short run.
To my amazement, I managed to win 3471 units of profit over the 100 shoes and I got hit with only one unlucky streak of 7 straight losses in shoe #53. By shoe #57, I was able to completely recoup all losses from that streak.
For all the math people here, what is the probability of reproducing similar results in the casino if my bankroll is large enough for 8 separate sessions (1024 units)?
What is the probability of doubling my bankroll to 2048 units before going broke?
Assume I play EZ baccarat with no banker commission and bet on both banker and player. If I lose 7 hands in a row, I restart my system and bet 1 unit.
1.) The Martingale can, not does work well in the short run. The Martingale is a sytem based on probabilities rather than odds, you're essentially risking $635 to win $5 on a 99%+ probability. The necessary result of this is that the Martingale will rarely fail, but when it does, it will be catastrophic.
The thing about a 99%+ probability is that (and for the sake of simplicity, we'll assume 99%, that and I don'y know the loss rate of Baccarat off the top of my head) 99 wins at $5 bet is $495 and you should be expected to lose once for every 99 wins. If you win $5 99 times and lose $635 once per, you're down. The math on that really is that simple.
2.) 100 shoes is a small sample size. It seems like a lot, because it takes time to play those, but that is a small sample size.
3.) You did perform better than expected, but that should come as no surprise. If nobody ever performed better than expected (the expectation being a loss) then there would be no casinos because nobody would go.
I will answer the other few questions more specifically at a later time unless someone beats me to it.
Quote: Mission146The thing about a 99%+ probability is that (and for the sake of simplicity, we'll assume 99%, that and I don'y know the loss rate of Baccarat off the top of my head) 99 wins at $5 bet is $495 and you should be expected to lose once for every 99 wins. If you win $5 99 times and lose $635 once per, you're down. The math on that really is that simple.
I'm pretty sure the probability of losing 7 EZ baccarat hands is roughly 1/128 if you bet on banker and player and ignore ties.
If I win a unit 127 times and then get hit by a losing streak, I'll be even.
In the 100 shoes I tested, I was up 1901 units in shoe #53 before a losing streak hit!
Quote: drjohnnybut it seems like this one works pretty well in the short run.
Incorrect tense. This one 'worked' pretty well in the short run. Someone else can do the math, but your odds of doubling your bankroll before going broke is less than 50%. Excatly how low will be up to the more well versed at math, but I'll guess 25%. For whatever its worth, are baccarat minimums and maximiums that far apart that you can even bet 1024 units on one hand?
For simplicity, assume the probability of losing 7 in a row is 1 in 128. (It's actually more likely).
It doesn't work exactly like this, but if you assume each hand has an equal an independent chance of starting a 7-hand losing streak, then each hand you have a 1/128 chance of losing those 127 units. The probability of not losing is 127/128, and the probability of not hitting a streak in n hands is (127/128)^n. I'll repeat that this math is a gross oversimplification, but will give an ok estimate.
With around 80 hands in a 8-deck baccarat shoe, you claim you went 53 shoes before hitting a losing streak. This is n = 4240, with an estimated probability of 1 in 277 trillion. Your odds of doing that again (if ever) are astronomical.
On average, you should hit one of these losing streaks every 1.5 shoes. Your martingale system will not work in a casino environment for long.
Remember: the second worst thing that can happen to a new gambler is losing.
Quote: dwheatleyWith around 80 hands in a 8-deck baccarat shoe, you claim you went 53 shoes before hitting a losing streak. This is n = 4240, with an estimated probability of 1 in 277 trillion. Your odds of doing that again (if ever) are astronomical.
On average, you should hit one of these losing streaks every 1.5 shoes. Your martingale system will not work in a casino environment for long.
Shouldn't n = 1901 since that is how many times the system worked before the losing streak hit?
How did you come up with 1 in 277 trillion?
Also, shouldn't I theoretically hit a losing streak every 4 shoes since on average I'm implementing my system 34 times per shoe?
By the way, I've played hundreds of shoes in the casino over the past decade and I've lost 7 in a row only once or twice the entire time.
Quote: SOOPOOFor whatever its worth, are baccarat minimums and maximiums that far apart that you can even bet 1024 units on one hand?
There's a casino near me that has a $25 min and $100,000 max bet.
Also, if I lose my 7th bet (64 units), I restart with 1 unit since I should be able to recoup my losses within the next 4 shoes.
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/
Input a series length of 80 (1 shoe), a streak length of 7, and a prob of loss of 51% to see the chance of hitting a 7 loss martingale in 1 shoe is over 28%. Stretch to 160 to see a probability of over 50%.
By 20 shoes, or 1600 hands, the probability of seeing a losing streak is over 99.9%
It is inconceivable that you could play 50 shoes (n = 4000) and not see a streak of 7.
That calculator, It is not that accurate.Quote: dwheatleyHere's a random calculator I found, I cannot vouch for its accuracy, but it seems reasonable.
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/
Input a series length of 80 (1 shoe), a streak length of 7, and a prob of loss of 51% to see the chance of hitting a 7 loss martingale in 1 shoe is over 28%. Stretch to 160 to see a probability of over 50%.
By 20 shoes, or 1600 hands, the probability of seeing a losing streak is over 99.9%
It is inconceivable that you could play 50 shoes (n = 4000) and not see a streak of 7.
This one is.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html
BruceZ at 2+2 repaired the JavaScript
That page has good links to do the math
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/4855-ask-the-wizard-correction/
The OP claims to have a better bet selection method than other Bac players.
Always possible to choose more winners than the averages show in a finite number of trials.
It is possible for him to win overall but not for 1 million others that want to play his method.
IMO, very poor instructions on how he plays his method BTW... in other words
one can not have a computer play 1 billion shoes with his betting instructions. Way to vague.
Even a few blind gorillas can pick winning sports bets at a 60% rate.
Way better than most human cappers.
I am sure one could do the same at playing Baccarat (not equating that the OP is a blind gorilla)
They are still in the large minority.
Quote: dwheatleyIt is inconceivable that you could play 50 shoes (n = 4000) and not see a streak of 7.
One of the keys to my system is that I bet with streaks and chops, never against them.
I encountered a banker streak of 9 in the very first shoe.
In the 4th shoe I encountered a banker streak of 13 and in the 74th & 80th shoes I encountered banker streaks of 12.
I've seen 2 separate streaks in the casino that exceeded 20 and after many years of getting wiped out by betting against them, I finally realized it's much wiser to bet with them.
Quote: 7crapsIMO, very poor instructions on how he plays his method BTW... in other words
one can not have a computer play 1 billion shoes with his betting instructions. Way to vague.
Unlike a card counting system for blackjack, my system cannot be accurately reproduced with a computer program since many of my bets are based on gut feeling when I don't see any patterns or streaks.
I lost 6 in a row multiple times but I was lucky enough to win the 7th bet almost every time.
I highly doubt I won 60% of my bets. I'm guessing it's very close to 50%.
You are still not specific on exactly how you bet.Quote: drjohnnyOne of the keys to my system is that I bet with streaks and chops, never against them.
What length of winning streak do you start to bet with?
If Player wins 3 in a row, you Marty the next 7 Player hands?
If Banker wins 3 in a row, you Marty the next 7 Banker hands?
or is it 4 in a row.
You Need to be very exact so this can be programmed into a computer.
You bet with a chop.
A chop with what exact length?
example:
BPB
so you bet PBPBPBP max until a win?
Or is your chop trigger a
PBPB and you bet BPBPBPB for one win
if not, then what is the exact triger you use.
Exact betting methods can be calculated exactly by math and simulations.
But you should be a multi-billionaire if you have only lost 7 in a row one time in 10 years.
You should have the largest Baccarat syndicate in the Universe playing every Bac table in every casino.
What has stopped you?
Then why are you here asking about the math knowing your method it can not be calculated?Quote: drjohnnymy system cannot be accurately reproduced with a computer program since many of my bets are
based on gut feeling when I don't see any patterns or streaks.
Gut feelings are great!
We can ALL take that to the bank
Good Luck Bac player
Quote: drjohnnyOne of the keys to my system is that I bet with streaks and chops, never against them.
I encountered a banker streak of 9 in the very first shoe.
In the 4th shoe I encountered a banker streak of 13 and in the 74th & 80th shoes I encountered banker streaks of 12.
I've seen 2 separate streaks in the casino that exceeded 20 and after many years of getting wiped out by betting against them, I finally realized it's much wiser to bet with them.
Oh, no.
Quote: 7crapsYou are still not specific on exactly how you bet.
What length of winning streak do you start to bet with?
If Player wins 3 in a row, you Marty the next 7 Player hands?
If Banker wins 3 in a row, you Marty the next 7 Banker hands?
or is it 4 in a row.
You Need to be very exact so this can be programmed into a computer.
You bet with a chop.
A chop with what exact length?
example:
BPB
so you bet PBPBPBP max until a win?
Or is your chop trigger a
PBPB and you bet BPBPBPB for one win
if not, then what is the exact triger you use.
Exact betting methods can be calculated exactly by math and simulations.
But you should be a multi-billionaire if you have only lost 7 in a row one time in 10 years.
You should have the largest Baccarat syndicate in the Universe playing every Bac table in every casino.
What has stopped you?
I learned many years ago that sticking to an inflexible bet selection is a sure recipe for disaster.
A pattern of 3 or 4 will normally trigger me to follow that pattern, but if it suddenly breaks then I'll just make a random bet.
I should've been more specific in saying that I just developed this system in the past few months after discovering that most pro BJ and craps teams play with +500 unit bankrolls.
3 OR 4?Quote: drjohnny
A pattern of 3 or 4 will normally trigger me to follow that pattern, but if it suddenly breaks then I'll just make a random bet.
IT can not be 3 or 4.
Either 3 and not 4 or 4 and not 3.
What is the difference.
I forgot.
Your gut.
Do you flip 2 coins and when BOTH are HEADS you bet banker and when BOTH are TAILS you bet Player?
And you flip one more time if the first 2 flips end in a tie?
I think this would work even better than a gut feeling or betting with a streak or a chop.
I'm off to BBQ and prove my method.
Results For Baccarat Syndicates Only.
Good Luck
Gee, and I thought you were just gambling. SILLY ME .
I didn't think a Martingale system could survive after 100 hand-dealt shoes, but it did and that's why I'm posting about it.
I included complete results for each shoe in a small text file I attached to the baccaratforums.com post if you want to know my betting patterns.
I know because I did something similar. About 6 months ago (before I started following this site and learning a hell of a lot) I turned £20 into £250 simply using martingale on Betfair's zero Baccarat (although I did it by betting on the player so actually the house had the same edge as normal baccarat). After I was up to £100 I naively thought I had a foolproof 'system' so I wrote a quick bot that would play for me using my strategy (in my case the stakes went £1, £2, £4, £8, £16, then back to £1 if I'd lost 5 hands in a row).
I was so confident I set the bot running and went to bed for an hour or so. When I woke up I had over £260 so I stopped the bot and decided to not ride my luck any further. I withdrew the cash (online casino) and used it as spending money on my holiday.
When I got back from sunny Spain, I thought I'd do it again. I deposited £20 and set the bot off. Within 10 minutes I'd lost my entire bank roll. So I put in another 20 but this time bet on the banker and again I soon was bankrupt, I tried once more with a tenner betting on whoever won the last hand and once again that deposit didn't last very long.
It was at that point I realised I'd just been a 'victim' of beginners luck and it was around that time I found the Wizard Of Odds site and started doing some calculations. I'm still up on the said site but I've dropped the dreams of making a living from my 'system' and just play for fun now.
Quote: Mission146Is there not a stipulation in the Rules that you may not use any kind of computer program to play for you, or do they not care provided it is not Poker?
To be honest, I don't actually know.
But seeing as baccarat is a game of chance, which means there is no 'best play' strategy I don't see why they'd have a problem. If I was playing black jack then maybe because that does require human concentration which when lapsed gives them an advantage.
Quote: estebanreyTo be honest, I don't actually know.
But seeing as baccarat is a game of chance, which means there is no 'best play' strategy I don't see why they'd have a problem. If I was playing black jack then maybe because that does require human concentration which when lapsed gives them an advantage.
Betfair Rules: Section: Gaming, Article 4. vi. states as follows:
Quote:vi.You will place all wagers on Games through the various user interfaces provided on our site and you will not wager through other means, including the use of a "robot" player. The use of programs designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters (i.e. “robot” players) is not permitted on any Games (including Poker, Casino, Arcade Games, Exchange Games or any other Games) on any part of our site;
http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Terms.and.Conditions/
I'd have also agreed not to copy or disseminate that information if I were Registered, but I'm not Registered.
This has nothing to do with whether or not I believe what you are saying because I do. I am imparting this information to you because it is very important that you know that almost every (if not all) on-line gambling site has a Rule such as this one or something very close to it. I would also say that if Variance had been seriously on your side (remember that you are expected to lose) to the tune of $1,000+, then perhaps they would have looked into it a bit more closely. Do you think they care that you actually still played a fair game and merely experienced Positive Variance? They don't.
If they can find any reasonable violation and justification for not paying you the money, you're not getting it, PERIOD. I don't mean to sound so strict about this matter as I personally do not care whether or not you violate their Rules, but I'm merely helping you by telling you this for your own good. I can almost guarantee that there is a certain amount that you hit where they automatically look for any problems with your play, and I'm sure it's an easy matter to see how many hands you play in an hour, and I also believe (even with the miniscule delay it would take for a human to click a mouse) you played impossibly fast. Furthermore, the time interval between bets was probably exactly the same EVERY TIME. You should also keep in mind that to avoid paying you, they don't have to know it, all they need do is suspect it. If they suspect it, best case scenario, "Ok, no bet, here's your original money back."
However, had they not paid out I would have taken them to a small claims court. Living in the UK we have that option if a bookie isn't paying up (not saying I'd win though of course).
Betfair though have one of the best reputations for not playing silly monkeys so I doubt they'd refuse unless they could prove you were cheating (i.e were doing something with a mathematical advantage).
Quote: estebanreyI suspected they probably would have a rule like that and advice heeded.
However, had they not paid out I would have taken them to a small claims court. Living in the UK we have that option if a bookie isn't paying up (not saying I'd win though of course).
Betfair though have one of the best reputations for not playing silly monkeys so I doubt they'd refuse unless they could prove you were cheating (i.e were doing something with a mathematical advantage).
If you're actually in the UK, then by Agreeing to their Terms & Conditions you have entered into a legally binding contract. The only way that you wouldn't lose in court for violating the contract is if a representative of Betfair failed to appear.
IANAL.
Quote: Mission146If you're actually in the UK, then by Agreeing to their Terms & Conditions you have entered into a legally binding contract. The only way that you wouldn't lose in court for violating the contract is if a representative of Betfair failed to appear.
IANAL.
Glad your such an expert on British Law ;)
But seriously there's no point debating a hypothetical situation when I've had no problems with Betfair so far. As I said, there is absolutely no advantage (and arguable disadvantages) to using a bot to auto play a game of chance so why would they care? And what does it matter if I would have just done the same thing anyway?
Again I reiterate, Betfair have a very good reputation for not needlessly annoying their customers. The only real time they refused to payout was when they screwed up some in-play odds once and ended up losing £29 million as a result.
Quote: estebanreyGlad your such an expert on British Law ;)
That's not what I meant. I just meant that you actually could take them to Court, even if you tried to take the to a Britain Court, but lived in the U.S. (and played from the U.S.) you couldn't because the contract is invalid due to you not being a legal participant.
Quote:But seriously there's no point debating a hypothetical situation when I've had no problems with Betfair so far. As I said, there is absolutely no advantage (and arguable disadvantages) to using a bot to auto play a game of chance so why would they care? And what does it matter if I would have just done the same thing anyway?
I don't see what the possible disadvantages are, can you not pre-program certain win/loss parameters? I don't see where there exists any possible disadvantage. I'm guessing that it matters, somehow, or they wouldn't have it as a rule.
Quote: Mission146That's not what I meant. I just meant that you actually could take them to Court, even if you tried to take the to a Britain Court, but lived in the U.S. (and played from the U.S.) you couldn't because the contract is invalid due to you not being a legal participant.
But I'm not from the US, in fact I've never even stepped one foot in America in my life. I'm British, I live in Britain and Betfair is a British company so any dispute would be in a British court based on British law.
Quote: Mission146
I don't see what the possible disadvantages are, can you not pre-program certain win/loss parameters? I don't see where there exists any possible disadvantage. I'm guessing that it matters, somehow, or they wouldn't have it as a rule.
Certain win/loss parameters? What do you mean? I can't program a bot to do anything than I couldn't do manually in a game of chance.
The main disadvantage (which earlier you thought was an advantage) is the fact hands can be played more quickly (not stupidly fast as you are still limited by the program's animations etc), as the wizard will tell you the quicker you go through hands the quicker the 'grind' kicks in. Remember the one time I did it I was betting on the player (ergo the house had an edge), so playing more hands, more quickly is advantageous to the casino as short term wins are more common that long term wins.
Again, this is mostly irrelevant as it was a while I go I used the 'bot'. Now I just play manually for fun and I've never had a problem with Betfair in terms of withdrawing money (they are brilliant in fact and I get it within 3 days).
Quote: estebanrey
But I'm not from the US, in fact I've never even stepped one foot in America in my life. I'm British, I live in Britain and Betfair is a British company so any dispute would be in a British court based on British law.
Yes, that's what I meant. You actually could take them to Court as opposed to other players that could not because they didn't even enter legally into the contract. You did enter into it legally, however, and violated it, so you'd lose if it went that far.
Quote:Certain win/loss parameters? What do you mean? I can't program a bot to do anything than I couldn't do manually in a game of chance.
W/L parameters, you could program it to quit playing after winning or losing a certain amount.
Quote:The main disadvantage (which earlier you thought was an advantage) is the fact hands can be played more quickly (not stupidly fast as you are still limited by the program's animations etc), as the wizard will tell you the quicker you go through hands the quicker the 'grind' kicks in. Remember the one time I did it I was betting on the player (ergo the house had an edge), so playing more hands, more quickly is advantageous to the casino as short term wins are more common that long term wins.
I understand that, I never implied that the bot gave you an actual advantage.
Quote:Again, this is mostly irrelevant as it was a while I go I used the 'bot'. Now I just play manually for fun and I've never had a problem with Betfair in terms of withdrawing money (they are brilliant in fact and I get it within 3 days).
I'm glad to hear you have experienced no problems.
After utilizing this 7 step Martingale system several times in the casino over the past few weeks, I have decided to abandon this system of doom.
I got smashed once after losing 7 hands in a row and had to go "all in" a bunch of other times after losing 6 hands in a row. I was winning only about $150-200 per hour at the $10 tables and I only got to play a few minutes the day I got smashed for $1200.
I have had much better success betting the minimum or nothing at all when the shoes were "random" and then upping my bets when long chops and streaks appeared.
All of my huge wins this year have come from betting $100-500 per hand on chops or streaks that lasted 7-13 hands in a row.
So far the longest pattern I've seen this year was a perfect chop of 20 hands in a row. Unfortunately I approached the table halfway into it and I ended up only betting $25 per hand. If I see something similar now, I will definitely make sure I leave the table with pockets stuffed with orange chips!
How about a 5 step martingale and if u lose go back to one unit after 5 losses
If I was going to do any martingale it wouldnt be 7 thats for sure
Id reset between 3 and 5 hands
Quote: donchtJust to check on this, can anyone please confirm if 7 step Martingale system still works?
why do you keep replying to threads that are many years old.
to answer your question, the 7 step works the same today as it did in 2012.
"still?" No, it does not work. It never did.Quote: donchtJust to check on this, can anyone please confirm if 7 step Martingale system still works?
Quote: BaccaratKidA 'bot' can easily simulate a human player such that the difference is undetectable. If they start putting 'tests' every 20 minutes or so, at random times, to snare bots, using 'Capcha'-type visuals, then they could weed out anyone using bots, but why would they if they were still retaining the edge?
My favorite wrestler in the 80s was the Dynamite Kid.
Any relation ?
I keep thinking lately that I need to play 100 hands to have a good shot at winning or losing 10 hands; play 400 hands to win or lose 20 hands; 900 hands to win or lose 30 hands; 1600 hands to win or lose 40 hands, etc. So the higher my win goal, the exponentially higher number of hands need to be played. I'm sure there's exceptions in the land of winning streaks and losing streaks, but there's only so much that can be done in a day.
I am new here but not new for baccarat :)
I have been playing for 10 years and i also won online bac tournament which was survival mode ( not based on pure luck ). In 2 weeks, whoever had the highest real money winning won the tournament and i was rank 1.
I will give you my system here :
1. I use positive progression. Up 1 u when I win ( for the double bets i use special trigger )
2. Target +4. SL -5
So cut the crap, let's begin.
Basically, i reconstruct to what happen on the shoes i play.
For example BBBBBBBPBBPB, if you notice, cokroach layout appears for the first time. It is blue dot.
So i reconstruct it.
Download baccarat scoreboard by gamespring. It is free.
So i start to enter the cokroach result which is P then so on.
When Bigeye appears and forms second liner, just follow the cokroach ( the reconstruct one ). If it jumps, you have to bet jump. If it goes down, then bet down.
Try it. That is the system i use everyday n with it i also beat all online players ( iam talking about the tournament )
If you have questions, you can email me : (redacted)
c ya
There's an interesting set of calculations you can do.Quote: BaccaratKidI find it interesting (and paranoia-inducing) that so many people 'get lucky' in the early goings.
(1) If you are playing a losing game, how much are you likely to win before going negative?
(2) On a winning game, how much are you likely to lose before going positive?
A counter playing $5 blackjack might lose about $400 before going lifetime positive.
A random $5 blackjack player might win about $400 before losing.
Technical note:
(1) Do you look at 90%/95%/99% thresholds?
(2) Zero-crossings is an interesting aspect of the math. People tend to stay positive or negative for long stretches.
Quote: michael99000My favorite wrestler in the 80s was the Dynamite Kid.
Any relation ?
Loved the guy.
But yeah all these systems are bogus. I have a friend that keeps buying these systems for a grand. You'd think these people selling the system wouldn't need to sell that high if the in fact were making tons of cash off their systems.
