Baccarat money management

I played with a guy who was offsetting (progressing and regressing) his bets by $10. He said he thought since his chances of guessing were approximately 50/50 he would win $10 for every time he was right and wrong.

So heres what he did he started with $60 and if he won he went to $50 so every time he won he went down $10 and every time he lost he went up $10, so if he was right 50% of the time he was still up $10 for every win and loss together. He happed to win alot of money so I did what he did and I won money too.

My question is: Is this actually feasable or is it just non sense?

Did you get the guys name ? Was he John Patrick ?

You won one time.
Excellent

Keep doing it until you lose and see how much money you have left after your first loss.

This method of play is easily simulated and has been already done.
It is a very short term winner and a long time loser.

This method of play has been around for hundreds of years and as of today, no casino has yet to have been wiped out by it.
But most all players that play this way have had their bankrolls wiped out.
That should tell one something.


This is the D’Alembert system

From S Ethier's Doctrine of Chances book
""After a loss, the bet size is increased by one unit, and after a win, the bet size is decreased by one unit."

"It seems likely that he was therefore credited with this betting system, which relies
on the “Theory of Equilibrium” in probability, the belief (erroneous unless p = 1/2 )
that wins and losses must eventually equalize."


One has overall better winning results the longer one plays by flat betting than the D’Alembert system

No one will believe the math or simulation results for this,

so prove it to yourself that it is a long time winner for everyone.

His name was Steve didnt get his last name, but after playing the same way he did I started thinking about it and it kinda makes sense to just try and be around 50/50 rather than trying to actually beat the casino.

Hey Im with you, I dont think there is a way beat the casino, I was just wonder what other people might think of it.

Since you don't know who John Patrick is, or wonder if this has been discussed before. I looked at your profile. My over/under for your age is 25 ?

The only stupid question is the one you do not ask. Welcome to the forum !

Quote: migoblue

Hey Im with you, I dont think there is a way beat the casino, I was just wonder what other people might think of it.

To complete my thoughts, I set up my program to calculate the probability to double a bankroll with the D'A system vs flat betting. (using same average bets)
It matched my simulation results from years ago.

They are just about the same.
Right around 46% success for one time using a $600 bankroll.

A $1200 bankroll
Right around 42% success for one time.
That means 580,000 out of 1 million that tried both ways still busted their starting bankroll but had some money left over for dinner and a drink.

But unfortunately, not enough to drown your sorrows.

Quote: buzzpaff

The only stupid question is the one you do not ask. Welcome to the forum !

Buzzpaff, I am glad to see that tag-line. I have been saying it for years, after hearing, "There is no such thing as a stupid question." As you point out, there is. Sorry for the hijack.