Borgata basketball tournament math -- questions

Borgata is hosting a free-throw tournament for cash.

It's $20 buy-in, one optional rebuy in round 1. Max 750 players.

Prizes:

1. 50%, at least $5,000
2. 30%, at least $3,000
3. 10%, at least $1,000
4. 10%, at least $1,000
5-18: $100 slot play (not part of the top 4 prize pool)

So for example, if the max 750 players join and all of them make the optional rebuy, first prize would pay $15,000.

Round 1 will be 15 free throws (13 1-point balls and 2 2-point balls), top score of 17, top 64 players overall advance.

Round 2 will be 15 free throws (13 1-point balls and 2 2-point balls), top score of 17, top 16 players advance

Finals will take the 16 players and randomly pair them in a bracket, 4 levels of heads up play. Each level will be 15 free throws (13 1-point balls and 2 2-point balls), top score of 17.

So to win this tournament, you will have to shoot 90 free throws (78 1-point balls and 12 2-point balls) -- assuming you are never in a tiebreak situation.

So here are my questions:

Assume 750 players and half of them make a rebuy, for 1,125 entries. Assume the median player of the 750 shoots free throws at 65%

1. What would your personal average percentage have to be to get +EV in this format? I assume it has to be somewhat higher than 65.01% because there will be players much higher than the median. Is there a statistical "distribution" that deals with this?

2. What would you expect the winning number of free throws made out of 90 for first place to be?

As a reference, the entire NBA shoots free throws at around 75%, and the best free throw shooters in the NBA shoot around 90%.

Depending on ball, rim, indoors versus outdoors, etc... the guesstimated winning percentage would vary. I have recently shot over 60 consecutive foul shots, and have frequently bested 90 out of 100. I would guess there are a large number of non professional players who can consistently hit 90%. How many of them would show up is the question. I have won many shooting contests (mostly 3 point shots) and have hit 25 in a row after age 50. I would love to participate in this contest. I just don't want to go to AC!
I'll guess winning number at 86.

Quote: SOOPOO

I would guess there are a large number of non professional players who can consistently hit 90%. How many of them would show up is the question.

Don't expect any college players (or high schoolers thinking about playing in college) to show up; I am pretty sure the NCAA would treat any winnings as "using his or her athletics skill (directly or indirectly) for pay in any form in that sport", which automatically makes the athlete professional. (The only real exception to this rule; if you haven't started college yet, you can earn up to $10,000 per year playing tennis.) This has happened before; a college golfer entered some hole-in-one contest, won (I think) a million dollars, and had to give up the rest of his college golf eligibility (it was that, or not accept the money).

The best free throw shooters in the world can regularly make 90 in a row. I don't know they if they would be competing or not. I will put the number at 88.

Dr. Tom Amberry once made 2,750 free throws in a row, but he used his own basketball and had a rebounder, and the rim and backboard were NCAA standard.

I have Amberry's book. He advises using the painted nail in the center of the free throw line and he always covers the inflation hole with the tip of his middle finger. But even that won't help you in this contest.

Borgata will provide "Optima house basketballs" for use, and you have to shoot two different colored basketballs (regular and bonus balls). Plus you are rebounding your makes and misses. And who knows if the rims are "double rims" or not. And you only get 6 seconds per free throw. And lane violations are a factor.

Will someone make 15/15 in round 1? Of course, many will. Will there be 64 perfect round 1 entries? I don't think so.

There are 3 rounds. Will someone make 45/45 free throws? I'll say no. The time pressure will force you off your rhythm.

Bob Dancer said there were professionals flying in from Australia. What a waste of time that would be to come to the United States just to shoot free throws.

That being said, I have knocked down 30+ in a row in officiated game conditions (over several games). Will I be donating my $40.00? You bet.

http://www.theborgata.com/assets/webpage/PLAY/free_throw_tournament/rules/index.html

This guy made 5221 in a row.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_St._Martin

Quote: sodawater

Borgata is hosting a free-throw tournament for cash.

.

I have been around the casinos, including Atlantic City since 1979 when the Playboy casino stood after Atlantis and before Trump's failed Plaza. Casinos don't do anything for 'free', sorry. Referring to the name of the event in sport or the 'price'.

Quote: chaunceyb3

Dr. Tom Amberry once made 2,750 free throws in a row, but he used his own basketball and had a rebounder, and the rim and backboard were NCAA standard.

I have Amberry's book. He advises using the painted nail in the center of the free throw line and he always covers the inflation hole with the tip of his middle finger. But even that won't help you in this contest.

Borgata will provide "Optima house basketballs" for use, and you have to shoot two different colored basketballs (regular and bonus balls). Plus you are rebounding your makes and misses. And who knows if the rims are "double rims" or not. And you only get 6 seconds per free throw. And lane violations are a factor.

Will someone make 15/15 in round 1? Of course, many will. Will there be 64 perfect round 1 entries? I don't think so.

There are 3 rounds. Will someone make 45/45 free throws? I'll say no. The time pressure will force you off your rhythm.

Bob Dancer said there were professionals flying in from Australia. What a waste of time that would be to come to the United States just to shoot free throws.

That being said, I have knocked down 30+ in a row in officiated game conditions (over several games). Will I be donating my $40.00? You bet.

http://www.theborgata.com/assets/webpage/PLAY/free_throw_tournament/rules/index.html

Good news, there will be a rack of all 15 balls -- you don't have to do any rebounding, as I understand it.

I still want to know if someone who shoots 70% would be +EV in this tournament -- doubt it though.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/new_jersey/20150322_Borgata_shoots_for_younger_crowd_with_free-throw_tournament.html


Looks like it was more of a success than planned with multiple people re entering the tourney.

Chauncey, how did you do?

This skill game stuff is all very interesting. I am very interested in seeing how it all plays out. I think this stuff will be very successful, I imagine all kinds of contests WII, put put, guitar hero, dance dance revolution, trivia. But don't they have contests like this all ready? What's the difference?

I'm wondering if there's an advantage backing skilled players in various events? Obviously they will have to cost more than $20.
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What skill do you have that you would be willing to participate in a tournament?

I'm really good at galaga and can swim fast over a short distance.

Quote: rudeboyoi

I'm really good at galaga and can swim fast over a short distance.

Just stay away from McNugget contests and you will be fine, lol!

And the story stated there were looking at Xbox and Angry Birds type contests.

I am not surprised they had a big turn out. I'm sure if they had a putting contest, or golden tee golf. Or something else for real money they'd get a big turnout too. The question is are the other casinos in AC smart enough to learn from this? Lets face it Borgata is the one casino in AC that doesn't need the extra money. Can the other properties in town duplicate this success in some way? Will it be enough to bump up the bottom line some? Remains to be seen. I think there is certainly a market for "skilled" gaming. Which remains largely untapped...interesting to see what happens.

If they combined this with actual sports wagering. AC might have a chance at recovery. But the politicians will screw it up I'm sure.

Gambling on average joes doing silly things like running with eggs on spoons would be very hard not to gamble on :-)

Quote: Boz

Just stay away from McNugget contests and you will be fine, lol!

And the story stated there were looking at Xbox and Angry Birds type contests.

I never want to eat another mcnugget again lol.

I suck at new video games. Well anything in 3d I'm not good at. If it's a retro style 2d or 2.5d game I'd prob be pretty decent.

I would need to practice up, but I bet I could give you a run for your money in a Galaga tourney, Rude! Loved that game back in the day; it was very economical, especially if you could find one set to the "easy" settings. 20-30 min for $.25. :)