sodawater
sodawater
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March 10th, 2015 at 11:57:18 PM permalink
Borgata is hosting a free-throw tournament for cash.

It's $20 buy-in, one optional rebuy in round 1. Max 750 players.

Prizes:

1. 50%, at least $5,000
2. 30%, at least $3,000
3. 10%, at least $1,000
4. 10%, at least $1,000
5-18: $100 slot play (not part of the top 4 prize pool)

So for example, if the max 750 players join and all of them make the optional rebuy, first prize would pay $15,000.

Round 1 will be 15 free throws (13 1-point balls and 2 2-point balls), top score of 17, top 64 players overall advance.

Round 2 will be 15 free throws (13 1-point balls and 2 2-point balls), top score of 17, top 16 players advance

Finals will take the 16 players and randomly pair them in a bracket, 4 levels of heads up play. Each level will be 15 free throws (13 1-point balls and 2 2-point balls), top score of 17.

So to win this tournament, you will have to shoot 90 free throws (78 1-point balls and 12 2-point balls) -- assuming you are never in a tiebreak situation.

So here are my questions:

Assume 750 players and half of them make a rebuy, for 1,125 entries. Assume the median player of the 750 shoots free throws at 65%

1. What would your personal average percentage have to be to get +EV in this format? I assume it has to be somewhat higher than 65.01% because there will be players much higher than the median. Is there a statistical "distribution" that deals with this?

2. What would you expect the winning number of free throws made out of 90 for first place to be?

As a reference, the entire NBA shoots free throws at around 75%, and the best free throw shooters in the NBA shoot around 90%.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 11th, 2015 at 4:51:52 AM permalink
Depending on ball, rim, indoors versus outdoors, etc... the guesstimated winning percentage would vary. I have recently shot over 60 consecutive foul shots, and have frequently bested 90 out of 100. I would guess there are a large number of non professional players who can consistently hit 90%. How many of them would show up is the question. I have won many shooting contests (mostly 3 point shots) and have hit 25 in a row after age 50. I would love to participate in this contest. I just don't want to go to AC!
I'll guess winning number at 86.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 11th, 2015 at 6:21:43 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I would guess there are a large number of non professional players who can consistently hit 90%. How many of them would show up is the question.


Don't expect any college players (or high schoolers thinking about playing in college) to show up; I am pretty sure the NCAA would treat any winnings as "using his or her athletics skill (directly or indirectly) for pay in any form in that sport", which automatically makes the athlete professional. (The only real exception to this rule; if you haven't started college yet, you can earn up to $10,000 per year playing tennis.) This has happened before; a college golfer entered some hole-in-one contest, won (I think) a million dollars, and had to give up the rest of his college golf eligibility (it was that, or not accept the money).
DRich
DRich
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March 11th, 2015 at 9:10:18 AM permalink
The best free throw shooters in the world can regularly make 90 in a row. I don't know they if they would be competing or not. I will put the number at 88.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
chaunceyb3
chaunceyb3
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:02:17 AM permalink
Dr. Tom Amberry once made 2,750 free throws in a row, but he used his own basketball and had a rebounder, and the rim and backboard were NCAA standard.

I have Amberry's book. He advises using the painted nail in the center of the free throw line and he always covers the inflation hole with the tip of his middle finger. But even that won't help you in this contest.

Borgata will provide "Optima house basketballs" for use, and you have to shoot two different colored basketballs (regular and bonus balls). Plus you are rebounding your makes and misses. And who knows if the rims are "double rims" or not. And you only get 6 seconds per free throw. And lane violations are a factor.

Will someone make 15/15 in round 1? Of course, many will. Will there be 64 perfect round 1 entries? I don't think so.

There are 3 rounds. Will someone make 45/45 free throws? I'll say no. The time pressure will force you off your rhythm.

Bob Dancer said there were professionals flying in from Australia. What a waste of time that would be to come to the United States just to shoot free throws.

That being said, I have knocked down 30+ in a row in officiated game conditions (over several games). Will I be donating my $40.00? You bet.

http://www.theborgata.com/assets/webpage/PLAY/free_throw_tournament/rules/index.html
DRich
DRich
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:25:35 AM permalink
This guy made 5221 in a row.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_St._Martin
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Baccaratfrom79
Baccaratfrom79
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:30:42 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Borgata is hosting a free-throw tournament for cash.

.



I have been around the casinos, including Atlantic City since 1979 when the Playboy casino stood after Atlantis and before Trump's failed Plaza. Casinos don't do anything for 'free', sorry. Referring to the name of the event in sport or the 'price'.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
sodawater
sodawater
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March 11th, 2015 at 1:56:35 PM permalink
Quote: chaunceyb3

Dr. Tom Amberry once made 2,750 free throws in a row, but he used his own basketball and had a rebounder, and the rim and backboard were NCAA standard.

I have Amberry's book. He advises using the painted nail in the center of the free throw line and he always covers the inflation hole with the tip of his middle finger. But even that won't help you in this contest.

Borgata will provide "Optima house basketballs" for use, and you have to shoot two different colored basketballs (regular and bonus balls). Plus you are rebounding your makes and misses. And who knows if the rims are "double rims" or not. And you only get 6 seconds per free throw. And lane violations are a factor.

Will someone make 15/15 in round 1? Of course, many will. Will there be 64 perfect round 1 entries? I don't think so.

There are 3 rounds. Will someone make 45/45 free throws? I'll say no. The time pressure will force you off your rhythm.

Bob Dancer said there were professionals flying in from Australia. What a waste of time that would be to come to the United States just to shoot free throws.

That being said, I have knocked down 30+ in a row in officiated game conditions (over several games). Will I be donating my $40.00? You bet.

http://www.theborgata.com/assets/webpage/PLAY/free_throw_tournament/rules/index.html



Good news, there will be a rack of all 15 balls -- you don't have to do any rebounding, as I understand it.

I still want to know if someone who shoots 70% would be +EV in this tournament -- doubt it though.
Boz
Boz
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March 23rd, 2015 at 4:27:42 PM permalink
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/new_jersey/20150322_Borgata_shoots_for_younger_crowd_with_free-throw_tournament.html


Looks like it was more of a success than planned with multiple people re entering the tourney.
sodawater
sodawater
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March 23rd, 2015 at 7:47:59 PM permalink
Chauncey, how did you do?

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