my last trip to Macao, March, 2016-CSM and baccarat tourament

last week, i visited Macao. here was the summary.
1) i tried to count dragon 7. not working well, by totally 24 hours, i hit nothing. it is normal that 300 bets after counting is for nothing. the following days were better. maybe i still lost a little bit. not sure. i also had an interesting counting system: 0=0.25, others are the same.

2) i did good on blackjack this time, maybe because l lost too much before, i won some money and the wynn's sister(Encore Tower) gave me suite rooms for 2 nights worthy of about USD 600/night, it is just too beautiful.

3) in wynn, i had twice or 3 times, A, A, A, all split. so it is more confirmed now that: A can be split 4 times.

4)wynn's minimum: 1 or 2 tables: USD40. most: USD70.

4) i did some checkings on how csm works,
1) the inside should be with about 40 racks, i counted them one by one when they were replacing cards. 2 racks are empty. then i concluded: 52*6/40 cards in each rack, every newly inputed cards into the chute are from 2 racks. the cards in the racks are not evenly distributed.
2) the cards in the chute: i counted it twice when they were replacing cards, one time, it is about 24 cards, one time is about 12 cards, one dealer told me, it should be about 30 cards.
3) after about 7-10 cards are given to the players, the csm will make noise. which means new cards(from 2 racks, by my above assumption) are going into the chute, which also means that the cards from last hand(at most 2 cards by how csm eats new-in cards) may enter the chute.
4) that is all, i didn't find more info useful.

5)the cards in wynn are well designed, not edge sorting chances. but other places, i can see there are problems, Eliot is always right.

thanks for reading.

now wynn is inviting me to join a baccarat tournament. i finished reading Stanford Wong's book on it, also some of Ken Smith's writings, could anyone recommend more? best to be maths-heavy like Eliot's.

Quote: tomchina123

now wynn is inviting me to join a baccarat tournament.

Hi Tom,
When will the tournament start?

Are you still looking for the baccarat sim data?

Congrats on your Blackjack win. And thanks for posting the csm info! You might want to try to count the O/U 13 bet next time you're in Macau. I'll be there late August if you're around and want to shoot dice or play some bj.

Have you been offered a dead chip program?

Quote: nickolay411

Congrats on your Blackjack win. And thanks for posting the csm info! You might want to try to count the O/U 13 bet next time you're in Macau. I'll be there late August if you're around and want to shoot dice or play some bj.

Have you been offered a dead chip program?

Is it the casinos that are offering the dead chip promo or is it the junket operators? With the crack down on junket operators I assumed the dead chip promos were going away.

I believe there are VIP promoters/agents still running around offering these to players. I don't know if they will ever go away but rather evolve into some sort of hybrid system. It's interesting to see it play out.

I wonder if tomchina has anymore info about it?

Quote: DRich

Is it the casinos that are offering the dead chip promo or is it the junket operators? With the crack down on junket operators I assumed the dead chip promos were going away.

Both offered it. The junkets tended to offer more generous percentages.

Quote: tomchina123

last week, i visited Macao. here was the summary.
1) i tried to count dragon 7. not working well, by totally 24 hours, i hit nothing. it is normal that 300 bets after counting is for nothing. the following days were better. maybe i still lost a little bit. not sure. i also had an interesting counting system: 0=0.25, others are the same.

now wynn is inviting me to join a baccarat tournament. i finished reading Stanford Wong's book on it, also some of Ken Smith's writings, could anyone recommend more? best to be maths-heavy like Eliot's.

Did U follow Eliot's counting method for Dragon 7? Tell me why it did not work after 24 hours? Is the method not good enough, incorrect, or you lost patience? Remember, "Eliot is always right". You're his fan :-)))))

Tom, can you tell me how the player cards/points system works in Macao? How did you get the free rooms? Anything else they can comp?

hi, 7 up,

the tournament was over long time ago.

it is some time i haven't visited this forum.

the tournament is like this:
100,000 value of chips. playing 5 hands, 30 players with top chips will be entitled to the 2nd round.
i played it 90% perfectly, but the luck wasn't on my side.
the reason i played it perfectly is:
1) i went in at the last minute, knowing that 6 times of original chips wil be into the top 30 players.
2) i did all in at the 1 hand, with most chips in the banker, some chips into the tie, some into pairs, if any bet wins, i get 2nd chance. while others went into the game without konwing the chip target, and all in at the banker/player for the 1st bet.
as for how much into the banker, tie, pair, i wouldn't do another calculation here again, but i am sure i know the maths. it is simple. also i know some maths of another form of tournament---the most chips in a table will be entitled. the last bet is the key. if the logic is right, what matters is the dialectical relationship among all players.
the pity is that i have no chance to use it.

for bac sim data, no, Eliot helps me with this. thanks for your concern.

pity i didn't read this.
O/U 13 is possible? the Macao is all about csm for bj.

for dead chip program, it is said all are in VIP room,

and it is heard in goldendragon casino, it is 1% for ground play.

and 100% for bac, not for bj.

for dead chip program in bac, i read Wizard(Jame's?)'s way and Eliot's way to calculate it, here is how:
Wizard:
1-1.0579% / 0.446247=0.976293398050855. it means, the real value=dead chip value * 0.976.
by this way:
1.0100 0.986063
1.0125 0.98850375
1.0130 0.9889919
1.0150 0.9909445
1.0160 0.9919208
1.0170 0.9928971
1.0180 0.9938734
1.0190 0.9948497
1.0200 0.995826
1.0210 0.9968023
1.0220 0.9977786
1.0230 0.9987549
1.0240 0.9997312
1.0250 1.0007075
1.0260 1.0016838
1.0270 1.0026601
1.0280 1.0036364
1.0290 1.0046127
1.0300 1.005589

it means, only dead chip value is 2.5%, winning bac is possible. which explains in Myanmar,they offered. 2.2%.

for Eliot's way, i remembered i understood it, but i couldn't recall it.

i did another way to calculate it:
it is to check how many times to lose all the dead chip... i even forgot the steps. but the result is more or less the same, who cares, because no one is playing with it.

Quote: Wizard

Both offered it. The junkets tended to offer more generous percentages.

the dead chip program is still there. i personally heard it was at most 1.25% in larc macao in 2015. it is heard the highest is 1.35% officially.
in underground market, who knows?

Quote: UCivan

Did U follow Eliot's counting method for Dragon 7? Tell me why it did not work after 24 hours? Is the method not good enough, incorrect, or you lost patience? Remember, "Eliot is always right". You're his fan :-)))))

well, the standard deviation is like this. to be vivid,
the dragon 7's paying ratio is 40:1, let's say EV is 0. i can bet 40*8 without winning. like banker/player, i can lose 8 time easily.
if the EV is 8%, it can be 37*8 without winning.
i remembered one test i did: for the paying ratio: 40:1, if the EV is less than 10%, the standard deviation is killing the game.
for 24 hours betting without winning, it is much more than natural, the black swan is not that much black acutally.

it doesn't mean 'Eliot is wrong.' at all. Eliot is showing the Maths. he cannot control how maths will work when it is into one's betting in short term.

i didn't see many changes. i just hope Macao will present games which is shown countable as in USA.

Quote: tomchina123

it doesn't mean 'Eliot is wrong.' at all. Eliot is showing the Maths. he cannot control how maths will work when it is into one's betting in short term.

Oh oh, time for the Guinness and cashew, hey hey.