ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 24th, 2020 at 2:59:02 PM permalink
The one prop I like: William Hill's +130 that the opening kickoff will not be a touchback. Teams are getting better at leaving kicks short of the goal line. There's also the possibility of pulling "the opening kickoff is an onside kick" out of the hat.

One to think about: bet on both teams that the last scoring play of the game will be them with a safety; it effectively pays 14.5-1.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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January 24th, 2020 at 11:39:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is an interesting prop at 5dimes:

Total Tweets from Donald Trump during the game (only tweets from @RealDonaldTrump will count towards grading, kickoff until final whistle)

Trump total tweets during game over ½ 100
Trump total tweets during game under ½ -140

Does anyone know his Tweeting history previous Super Bowls? Isn't he fairly likely to make any Tweet during the game about something else, which I assume counts?

BTW, I am conscious of the rule against political statements. Since this is directly gambling related, it is allowed. Be careful with posts of a general nature of Trump, as the no-political-statements rule still applies in this thread.

That sounds like a lock, doesn't he have an add running which was pushed to the beginning of the game to avoid controversy at the end? I'm pretty sure he does, and he will have to pat himself on the back for it as soon as he can. This seems better to me than the SB under you talked about, unless he has some kind of history of silence until the game is over.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 27th, 2020 at 8:40:40 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

This seems better to me than the SB under you talked about, unless he has some kind of history of silence until the game is over.



I'm very tempted to bet the over 1/2 too, but the fact that I'm getting even money suggests somebody knows something I don't.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 27th, 2020 at 8:42:42 AM permalink
Here are 20 pages of Super Bowl props from the Red Rock (PDF -- 15 MB). These were picked up on the evening of Jan 25.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
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January 27th, 2020 at 9:02:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm very tempted to bet the over 1/2 too, but the fact that I'm getting even money suggests somebody knows something I don't.



I would think he'd tweet during the game as well. That said, an unscientific Google search reveals he tweeted 2 times on Feb 3, 2019, both prior to kickoff. Anyone see different?
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
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January 27th, 2020 at 9:44:14 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The one prop I like: William Hill's +130 that the opening kickoff will not be a touchback. Teams are getting better at leaving kicks short of the goal line.



Stats from nfl.com -- URL too unwieldily to post here and/or my html skills are rusty

Regular Season:
KC touchback rate: 61.2% > not a touchback 38.8% (+158)
SF touchback rate: 50.0% > not a touchback 50.0% (+100)
Combined touchback rate: 55.6% > not a touchback 44.4% (+125)

Playoffs:
KC: 53.3% > not a touchback 46.7% (+114)
SF: 50.0% > not a touchback 50.0% (+100)
Combined touchback rate: 51.7% > not a touchback 48.3% (+107)

Is my math correct in calculating true fair line?

FWIW: FanDuel (IN) offering the following:
Opening Kickoff to be a Touchback
Yes: -170
No: +135
Last edited by: IndyJeffrey on Jan 27, 2020
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 27th, 2020 at 10:24:45 AM permalink
Here are Suncoast/Boyd Gaming props (PDF -- 7.2 MB)
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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Thanks for this post from:
EdCollins
January 27th, 2020 at 2:40:22 PM permalink
Here's an article on a mystery bettor whose action caused some Las Vegas books to take a loss on the Big Game in 2018. The article also mentions how the books had only lost on the Super Bowl 3 out of the past 28 years (prior to Super Bowl 52 in 2018).
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 27th, 2020 at 2:44:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm very tempted to bet the over 1/2 too, but the fact that I'm getting even money suggests somebody knows something I don't.



Unless there's a controversial call, I don't think the President is in the habit of sending messages during championship games. I think this wager would hinge on whether you believe something controversial is going to occur.

Does the wager include non-game time during half-time?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 27th, 2020 at 3:16:56 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Does the wager include non-game time during half-time?



Yes.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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