DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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Thanks for this post from:
EdCollins
January 24th, 2020 at 5:50:54 AM permalink
Westgate prop bets are published here:
https://www.scribd.com/user/234057260/Las-Vegas-Review-Journal#from_embed
You can view or download the THIRTY SEVEN pages at that link.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
EdCollins
EdCollins
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January 24th, 2020 at 5:58:44 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Westgate prop bets are published here:
https://www.scribd.com/user/234057260/Las-Vegas-Review-Journal#from_embed
You can view or download the THIRTY SEVEN pages at that link.

Is this the best thread to talk about the prop bets... or should we start another one?

By the way, when did they finally stop referring to it as "The Big Game?" (I assume the NFL now allows them to refer to it properly.)
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 24th, 2020 at 6:18:41 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Is this the best thread to talk about the prop bets... or should we start another one?



I just split of DJ's post here. Prop betting should be discussed here. Discussion about the game in general and betting on the winner and total points should be discussed at SUPER BOWL LIV.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 24th, 2020 at 6:21:44 AM permalink
Here is an interesting prop at 5dimes:

Total Tweets from Donald Trump during the game (only tweets from @RealDonaldTrump will count towards grading, kickoff until final whistle)

Trump total tweets during game over ½ 100
Trump total tweets during game under ½ -140

Does anyone know his Tweeting history previous Super Bowls? Isn't he fairly likely to make any Tweet during the game about something else, which I assume counts?

BTW, I am conscious of the rule against political statements. Since this is directly gambling related, it is allowed. Be careful with posts of a general nature of Trump, as the no-political-statements rule still applies in this thread.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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January 24th, 2020 at 6:40:12 AM permalink
Sorry for not starting a new thread.

Hereís the William Hill props:
https://www.scribd.com/document/444061391/Super-Bowl-54-prop-bets-WIlliam-Hill
Itís *only* 12 pages.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
Hullabaloo
Hullabaloo
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January 24th, 2020 at 7:23:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Does anyone know his Tweeting history previous Super Bowls? Isn't he fairly likely to make any Tweet during the game about something else, which I assume counts?



I don't, but this may be of help:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/23/trump-record-most-tweets-since-taking-office/4551815002/

Quote:

Trump shattered his record of 123 Twitter posts in a day Ė which was set Dec. 12 as the House Judiciary Committee debated two articles of impeachment against him Ė with 142 tweets and retweets, according to data compiled by Factbas.se.



I would guess that the total won't have a lot to do about the game, but what's going on in politics. If things are quiet, he probably will be too. If there's some issue/news then he seems to tweet more. And in answer to your question, yes, he's likely to post about everything and anything.

I may very well be wrong, but I would guess it would be under.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 24th, 2020 at 7:39:54 AM permalink
Quote: Hullabaloo

I would guess that the total won't have a lot to do about the game, but what's going on in politics. If things are quiet, he probably will be too. If there's some issue/news then he seems to tweet more. And in answer to your question, yes, he's likely to post about everything and anything.

I may very well be wrong, but I would guess it would be under.



According to How Many Times Does Trump Tweet A Day? , the answer is 11 or 12. However, it would be dangerous to use this figure alone. It seems they tend to be clumped together on hot news days, as you mention.

I still think the important thing to know is does he tend to Tweet about sports while in play? I could see him congratulating the winner, but that would likely be after the whistle.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
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January 24th, 2020 at 7:43:08 AM permalink
This runs from 2010-2018. Have to be careful with the time stamps to figure out if during actual game.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wtsp.com/amp/article/news/nation-world/trump-always-tweets-during-the-super-bowl-heres-what-hes-said-since-2010/507-514152302
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 24th, 2020 at 12:24:04 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Sorry for not starting a new thread.

Hereís the William Hill props:
https://www.scribd.com/document/444061391/Super-Bowl-54-prop-bets-WIlliam-Hill
Itís *only* 12 pages.


Too bad I don't live in the US, as some props are a lot better than what I took.
EdCollins
EdCollins
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
January 24th, 2020 at 1:45:43 PM permalink
Westgate Prop Bet #12509 through #12512

These four individual props bets

#12509: Total Points 46-50 +600
#12510: Total Points 51-55 +600
#12511: Total Points 56-60 +600
#12512: Total Points 61-65 +600


work out to a prop bet of

Total Points 46-65 -133.33

if you risk an equal amount on all four of them. (Assuming I did the math correctly.)

As I was computing it to determine the overall odds, I first guess-timated it would come out to maybe -150 to -175 or so. So I was a little surprised to see it was only -133.

Risking $133.33 to win $100 has to win 57.15% of the time to show a profit. So if you think 57% of the time or better the final point total will fall in that range of 46 to 65, well, there you go. (Note that 7 of the last 11 (63.6%) Super Bowls ended within this range, as were 8 of the past 13 (61.5%) Super Bowls. So this can't be too bad of a prop.)

As a comparison, William Hill also has props for Total Points per game. They offer these three prop bets:

Total Points 43-49 +350
Total Points 50-56 +300
Total Points 57-63 +350


However, if you do the math, William Hill's payout isn't anywhere near as good as Westgates. Hills is between -233.33 and -237.5, if you wager on all three of these, assuming I did that math correctly.

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