Miscellaneous Discussion Thread
Royal Canadian Mounted Police Sgt. Janelle Shoihet had already been speaking to the press about the deaths of North Carolina woman Chynna Noelle Deese and Lucas Robertson Fowler, of Australia, when the filter popped on, The Daily Hive reports.
Something similar happened in Pakistan.
Quote: petroglyphCan I ask, are most of those surgery's spine related?
No, this will be my first back surgery. I have had everything from my eyes to my toes operated on.
once the weather gets nicer the cops will be more than happy to protect and serve at that time
-108/-110 means house is making 18 on the game, right? If the same game is at another book at -106/-110 they are making 16 on the game?
Different game is -128/+100, they are making 28? So on that game is one of the sides more than likely wrong? Or is it that both sides are taking extra?
Or am I completely wrong as to how these work?
Quote: GWAEI asked my stupid question a few pages ago but got no answer. New to sportsbetting. Trying to figure out vig.
-108/-110 means house is making 18 on the game, right? If the same game is at another book at -106/-110 they are making 16 on the game?
Different game is -128/+100, they are making 28? So on that game is one of the sides more than likely wrong? Or is it that both sides are taking extra?
Or am I completely wrong as to how these work?
no, that is not what it means - -106 means on that side you would have to bet $106 to get $100 profit if you win - on the other side -110 means you would have to bet $110 to get $100 profit if you win
if a line is posted at for example +125 that means when you bet $100 you get $125 profit if you win
I've linked the Wiz's straight bet calculator which will figure out the house edge for you
in your example -108/-110 the house edge is 4.13%
-106/-110 the house edge is 3.7%
-128/+100 the house edge is 5.79 % ......................+100 means the bet has an even money payback...................
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
What are you doing over on this thread? you were bitching about not enough poker discussion, yet, there's an interesting one going on right now and you're nowhere to be seen. :-)Quote: lilredroosterno, that is not what it means - -106 means on that side you would have to bet $106 to get $100 profit if you win - on the other side -110 means you would have to bet $110 to get $100 profit if you win
if a line is posted at for example +125 that means when you bet $100 you get $125 profit if you win
I've linked the Wiz's straight bet calculator which will figure out the house edge for you
in your example -108/-110 the house edge is 4.13%
-106/-110 the house edge is 3.7%
-128/+100 the house edge is 5.79 % ......................+100 means the bet has an even money payback...................
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
Don't just complain about the problem, be part of the solution.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat are you doing over on this thread? you were bitching about not enough poker discussion, yet, there's an interesting one going on right now and you're nowhere to be seen. :-)
Don't just complain about the problem, be part of the solution.
decided to lighten up - everywhere I go people seem to be implying I'm an idiot
I dunno - maybe I am - so what - idiots can have fun too - gonna go eat some good pizza and bet some horses - life is sweet
I don't think anyone here thinks you're an idiot, perhaps some other things, but certainly not an idiot.Quote: lilredroosterdecided to lighten up - everywhere I go people seem to be implying I'm an idiot
I dunno - maybe I am - so what - idiots can have fun too - gonna go eat some good pizza and bet some horses - life is sweet
Quote: AxelWolfI don't think anyone here thinks you're an idiot, perhaps some other things, but certainly not an idiot.
well, thanks for that - won't ask what "other things" - time to move on
Quote: lilredroosterno, that is not what it means - -106 means on that side you would have to bet $106 to get $100 profit if you win - on the other side -110 means you would have to bet $110 to get $100 profit if you win
if a line is posted at for example +125 that means when you bet $100 you get $125 profit if you win
I've linked the Wiz's straight bet calculator which will figure out the house edge for you
in your example -108/-110 the house edge is 4.13%
-106/-110 the house edge is 3.7%
-128/+100 the house edge is 5.79 % ......................+100 means the bet has an even money payback...................
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
yes I know how to do the bet, but thank you for explaining. I had no idea that there was a calculator on his site.
So it looks like you are saying what I thought. The further below 0 that the combined last 2 numbers are the higher the house edge. I saw a game last night where it was like -178 and +112. So a game like that has a high house edge with the combined being -66., calculator shows 10.06%.
Quote: GWAEyes I know how to do the bet, but thank you for explaining. I had no idea that there was a calculator on his site.
So it looks like you are saying what I thought. The further below 0 that the combined last 2 numbers are the higher the house edge. I saw a game last night where it was like -178 and +112. So a game like that has a high house edge with the combined being -66., calculator shows 10.06%.
yes, you can use the calculator to find the book that's giving the best deal on the house edge
of course, if you want to bet the dog, and one book is giving +112 and another is giving +115 it doesn't matter how the house edge compares, you just want to go with the book offering the +115
the link is another very valuable calculator - moneyline to spread for the major sports - which is much more difficult - my understanding is that the guy who made this at SBR is a very bright guy who spent a lot of time tracking thousands of games - it is old but probably still very close to being valid -
you can sometimes, but not very often, find games where you are getting a better deal on the spread than the money line or vice versa
good luck
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/
Quote: lilredroosteryes, you can use the calculator to find the book that's giving the best deal on the house edge
of course, if you want to bet the dog, and one book is giving +112 and another is giving +115 it doesn't matter how the house edge compares, you just want to go with the book offering the +115
the link is another very valuable calculator - moneyline to spread for the major sports - which is much more difficult - my understanding is that the guy who made this at SBR is a very bright guy who spent a lot of time tracking thousands of games - it is old but probably still very close to being valid -
you can sometimes, but not very often, find games where you are getting a better deal on the spread than the money line or vice versa
good luck
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/
I can see where this gets addicting. Never had it legal so never paid much attention. Never wanted to do the internet ones. So I think my thinking was in the right direction where the difference is a big deal. Just found a game that is +136 on one site and -135. So by my thinking this would be a positive game. Just looked at calculator and it is +.18.
Quote: GWAEI can see where this gets addicting. Never had it legal so never paid much attention. Never wanted to do the internet ones. So I think my thinking was in the right direction where the difference is a big deal. Just found a game that is +136 on one site and -135. So by my thinking this would be a positive game. Just looked at calculator and it is +.18.
Remember that the goal of the book is to have roughly equal action on both sides of the bet. That way, the losers cover the winning bets, and the left over "Vigorish" is income. In addition to moneyline, straight up win or lose bets, there is usually a wager with a point spread offered to keep the wager at "bet 11 to win 10+ your original bet back". If you know something about the two competitors, you can shop this "line" too, since it may vary between books as they each seek to balance their action.
The Wizard's calculator assumes the line is correct, and half the action will be above it, and half below it, with the outcome a coin flip. Use caution if you come across a line with what appears to be a player edge. It could mean recent news has affected the betting crowd's perception of their team's performance. You should find out what it is too.
Quote: GWAEyes I know how to do the bet, but thank you for explaining. I had no idea that there was a calculator on his site.
So it looks like you are saying what I thought. The further below 0 that the combined last 2 numbers are the higher the house edge. I saw a game last night where it was like -178 and +112. So a game like that has a high house edge with the combined being -66., calculator shows 10.06%.
Generally correct but as the game gets more unbalanced with a decided favorite and underdog the “spread” on the money line can get wider while keeping the house edge constant.
Is this what James Holz____ (sp?) from Jeopardy does? Reports said that he bets sports but only bets the lines or something and knows nothing about the game/teams.
Quote: GWAEbut If there is a game that is -120 and +100 and next time I look it is -130 and +110, that means money is coming in on the favorite so they adjust it to try to get money in on the dog. So if you see another book still showing the favorite at -108, there is a good chance that you should be jumping on the -108?
there is a theory that money is moving to make the market more efficient. if that is indeed true then yes, what you are saying would be a good bet
but there is no guarantee that that line movement reflected wise money - maybe it did, maybe it didn't - may be the better bet would be on the dog at +110
there are no guarantees on any of this stuff (except arbitrage which is very rare)
strategies can be very complex
what I would do is try to learn as much as possible about the sport and the teams you are betting.
the average bettors do not go into great detail - that doesn't mean the lines are often off but sometimes you might be able to catch one that is off
look for mistakes - be flexible - i.e. you were thinking of liking to bet on the Steelers expecting them to be about -3 - now the line comes out and they're -7
and you think to yourself that is a terrible deal - I don't want to bet on the Steelers now
well, maybe a bet on the dog would be good bet now since they're getting many more points than you expected even though you didn't originally have any intention of betting the dog
this can be fun - but be forewarned - it's not easy to win if you make a lot of bets - it's real tough - good luck
Quote: GWAE
Is this what James Holz____ (sp?) from Jeopardy does? Reports said that he bets sports but only bets the lines or something and knows nothing about the game/teams.
Generally if someone is just playing the lines they are looking at discrepancies from one book to another. If 10 sports books have the line on a team at +105 and a different book has it at +120 there is probably an advantage in just betting the +120.
Well, you're no fun.Quote: lilredroosterwon't ask what "other things"
Oh crap, that might be one of the things (-;
Quote: DRichGenerally if someone is just playing the lines they are looking at discrepancies from one book to another. If 10 sports books have the line on a team at +105 and a different book has it at +120 there is probably an advantage in just betting the +120.
why did people on forums bash his way of betting (at least from the little I read)? Is that like the black sheep of sports betting?
Not sure how involved I will get at this but I am trying to have something else to do at home instead of working 18 hours a day.
Quote: GWAE
Is this what James Holz____ (sp?) from Jeopardy does? Reports said that he bets sports but only bets the lines or something and knows nothing about the game/teams.
I don't know what he does but I doubt that's all he does
that guy is a freak (in a good way) - he probably has tons of stats in his head that he's crunching
most of us are not genius freaks - we can't do the stuff he can do - like guys who day trade the markets and make big bucks while 99.999999 % who try to do this get creamed
the vast majority of us who try seriously to win are lucky if we can find one or two angles to work with
I doubt just playing the lines is enough to win - that's not what I have done - it just sounds too easy - and this is not easy
Quote: GWAEI asked my stupid question a few pages ago but got no answer. New to sportsbetting. Trying to figure out vig.
-108/-110 means house is making 18 on the game, right? If the same game is at another book at -106/-110 they are making 16 on the game?
Different game is -128/+100, they are making 28? So on that game is one of the sides more than likely wrong? Or is it that both sides are taking extra?
Or am I completely wrong as to how these work?
GWAE, the Wizard's WoO site has a "How To" page on Sports Betting. Lot's of good stuff there.
was that the house of one of the homeowner association board members?Quote: lilredroosterLOL - annoyed resident strikes back at Home Owners Association for citing him for minor violations:
was that the house of one of the homeowner association board members?Quote: AxelWolf
don't know - just picked it from imgur.com - they have some really funny memes there
Quote: lilredroosterwas that the house of one of the homeowner association board members?
don't know - just picked it from imgur.com - they have some really funny memes there that would make it Awesome if it was.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/22/nfl-training-camp-tour-james-holzhauer-fmia-peter-king/?cid=eref:nbcnews:text
" One of the bets Holzhauer likes this year, and every recent year, is a futures bet on the two teams with the playoff byes. “If you dig deep into the numbers,” he said, “you can get an idea of which teams have the inside track at the bye weeks and the tiebreakers come into play. There are times where there’s a decent chance that two teams will end up tied for the second and third spot, but one team has the tiebreaker locked up and you don’t always see that reflected in the odds … The one seed, just by virtue of having to play only two home games, would win the conference about 35 percent of the time and make it to the Super Bowl. The two team makes it about 29 percent, and the three seed makes it like 11 percent. That’s just an enormous gap between the two and the three. At least the past five or six years, something like that, you keep seeing the one and two seeds advancing to the Super Bowl.”
One other thing: Bet on Sunday nights for the week ahead. “If they put the odds up for next week’s football games on a Sunday night, there’s not a lot of thought that goes into that,” he said. “But you give people a week to bet on this, the odds are going to be a lot more efficient.” Oh, and one other thing after that: Bet on college football. There’s not as much attention paid to those games."
Quote: lilredroosterGWAE: you mentioned Holzhauer's strategy: funny, I just happened on to an article about just that - here's some of it:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/22/nfl-training-camp-tour-james-holzhauer-fmia-peter-king/?cid=eref:nbcnews:text
" One of the bets Holzhauer likes this year, and every recent year, is a futures bet on the two teams with the playoff byes. “If you dig deep into the numbers,” he said, “you can get an idea of which teams have the inside track at the bye weeks and the tiebreakers come into play. There are times where there’s a decent chance that two teams will end up tied for the second and third spot, but one team has the tiebreaker locked up and you don’t always see that reflected in the odds … The one seed, just by virtue of having to play only two home games, would win the conference about 35 percent of the time and make it to the Super Bowl. The two team makes it about 29 percent, and the three seed makes it like 11 percent. That’s just an enormous gap between the two and the three. At least the past five or six years, something like that, you keep seeing the one and two seeds advancing to the Super Bowl.”
One other thing: Bet on Sunday nights for the week ahead. “If they put the odds up for next week’s football games on a Sunday night, there’s not a lot of thought that goes into that,” he said. “But you give people a week to bet on this, the odds are going to be a lot more efficient.” Oh, and one other thing after that: Bet on college football. There’s not as much attention paid to those games."
THIS IS NOT NEWS!!!! Any football bettor for the past decades is well aware of the importance of getting a 1 or 2 seed in their conference!
Does he really believe the oddsmakers put up a line where "there's not a lot of thought that goes into that"?????
Puhhhleassseeee.
Quote: SOOPOO
Does he really believe the oddsmakers put up a line where "there's not a lot of thought that goes into that"?????
Puhhhleassseeee.
I believe he just misstated his point - used the wrong wording
I think what he was saying was that the early Sunday line is often significantly different than the final line
I think what he is saying he does is try to anticipate how the sharps will move the line and get in very early before they do - thereby getting a better deal than those who bet after the sharps have moved the line
but yeah, he didn't give out anything really valuable - maybe there is nothing revolutionary in what he does - he just does the commonplace things better than others
Quote: lilredroosterI believe he just misstated his point - used the wrong wording
I think what he was saying was that the early Sunday line is often significantly different than the final line
I think what he is saying he does is try to anticipate how the sharps will move the line and get in very early before they do - thereby getting a better deal than those who bet after the sharps have moved the line
but yeah, he didn't give out anything really valuable - maybe there is nothing revolutionary in what he does - he just does the commonplace things better than others
Also possible that he is a losing player. Just cause its his profession doesnt mean he makes any money.
Quote: GWAEAlso possible that he is a losing player. Just cause its his profession doesnt mean he makes any money.
Sharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting by True Pokerjoe, is a good book for explaining the basics.
so I tried this sleep inducing music - binaural stuff from idoser - different sounds in each ear
anyway, it worked - I used it a few times - I went into a deep sleep - when I woke up I didn't even know where I was
That happens to me and I don't have to wear earphones to induce it.Quote: lilredroosterI went into a deep sleep - when I woke up I didn't even know where I was
Quote: unJonSharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting by True Pokerjoe, is a good book for explaining the basics.
I’m about 2/3rd through reading this, and just read The Logic of Sports Betting by Ed Miller last few days. They both seem good, explain the very basics the same way but have some conflicting ideologies beyond that.
Side note, reading them In succession it’s fairly obvious which one of them has written books before. Not sure how that makes me feel, in other fields of gambling literature best to ignore the advice of professional book writers who are not professional gamblers if your goal is to earn money (Scoblete, Cardoza specifically I am thinking of) but Millers poker works are well reviewed.
It gets to the funniest thing about "bikers". They try so hard to be cool and tough, never realizing that virtually everyone else sees them as the desperate clowns that they are.
Is Cartman calling EvenBob a fag?
Quote: HullabalooI'm not quite sure I understand this. Is Cartman calling EvenBob a fag?
You are standing into danger.
I'm not sure what is going on with various personal characterizations on this forum but I sure hope they all end soon.
Quote: Rigondeaux
It gets to the funniest thing about "bikers".
There are only two kinds of men.
Those who own Harley's, and
those who want to own them
but can't because:
1 They're too terrified
2 Their wife won't let them
3 They can't afford it
So they whine and mock those who
do own them. There really is no middle
ground, it's one or the other.
Nah. The vast majority of non-Harley owners fall into a 4th category:Quote: EvenBobThere are only two kinds of men.
Those who own Harley's, and
those who want to own them
but can't because:
1 They're too terrified
2 Their wife won't let them
3 They can't afford it
So they whine and mock those who
do own them. There really is no middle
ground, it's one or the other.
4 Have absolutely no desire to ride one
Quote: EvenBobThere are only two kinds of men.
Those who own Harley's, and
those who want to own them
but can't because:
1 They're too terrified
2 Their wife won't let them
3 They can't afford it
So they whine and mock those who
do own them. There really is no middle
ground, it's one or the other.
Ummm I have no desire to own or ride one.
They might have been good in the past but now they suck.
That's what I've heard from bikers.
/rant
Quote: JoemanNah. The vast majority of non-Harley owners fall into a 4th category:
4 Have absolutely no desire to ride one
The 4th category is a fantasy dreamed
up by the guys in the first 3.. I used to
have rice burners up to the late 90's
and then I drove a Harley. Oh my dear
god.
Quote: GWAESince we are talking about bikers. I have to say that people on bikes really piss me off. They all complain that people dont share the road with motorcycles but most of them drive like complete asses. Today alone I was on the road with 6 motorcycles. 4 of them were weaving in and out of traffic and driving like they owned the world. No wonder people dont see them coming and run into them since they appear in spaces that they should never been in.
/rant
Pick your poison. While I like the idea of hot air ballooning, I'm pretty sure I will get the one that crashes violently in a unexpected gusts of wind, or catches on fire, or is blown into power lines, catches on fire and crashes. Otherwise seems quite enjoyable.
Of course, the hot rodders weaving fast in traffic in multi-ton cars are much more dangerous to you than any motorcycle.
Nope. I don't know anyone that wants to ride a Harley that doesn't already have one.Quote: EvenBobThe 4th category is a fantasy dreamed
up by the guys in the first 3.
Of course, most of the guys I know actually enjoy being with their wives. Maybe there is some correlation there...Quote: EvenBobYou used
to like the person and now you don't.
Lots and lots of marriages like that.
Certainly all the ones I know, they
can barely stand each other.
Harleys used to be displayed on the sales floor with cardboard under them to catch the dripping oil.
I like Harleys 'cause the dealer near me used to have cheap and very spicy sausages and chips in their showroom.
Living it = Biker
Loved it = Harley fan
Saw it in a theater = Ride some Sundays
Saw part of it on T.V. = Dude
Never heard of it = Square
Hate it = Sold
