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Shootress
Shootress
Joined: Jul 29, 2016
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April 12th, 2017 at 7:36:17 PM permalink
Hey, Steel..Although the night is not over, I have to say ...helluva comeback. You saved my bacon! Have faith in your system and good things will happen. Thank you!
!
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 12th, 2017 at 11:50:01 PM permalink
Steel,

What's up with the 7X's? Does this mean you bump your bet up 7 times (i.e. $700 instead of $100 for a 100 dollar player)? I've heard of guys going 1 to 5 stars but this would be 7 stars?

Is your system based on the +130 games? And if you only played those how have you done the past 3 years? Thank you
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 50
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April 13th, 2017 at 5:29:39 AM permalink
7X's is the multiple applied to +130Dogs and Focus picks. For example, if you are a $1 bettor then the +130Dogs or Focus picks would call for you to make a $7 bet on those. The +130Dogs have done very well over the past year and a half or so. The Focus picks are off of a newer algorithm and haven't been around for as long as the +130Dogs but have done well. The prior years are all on this site and you can look them up. I've tried to provide a summary at the end of the season each year. I think that I have done so. You should be able to go to each of the year's thread and just look at the last couple of posts.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 13th, 2017 at 5:33:38 AM permalink
Yesterday was a really great day and also provided a reminder to me as to why I just rely on the algorithm rather than try to make picks subjectively. The St. Louis Cardinals pick from yesterday is one that I never would have made on my own. Never. I did not see a single reason to take the Cardinals yet the algorithm picked them.

Yesterday's Results:
 Rays -101
 Cardinals +1288
 Reds +1120
 Mets +105
 Brewers +1400
 Braves +100
 Orioles +826
 Rangers +128
 Mariners -100
 Diamondbacks -101

Yesterday's results: +4,665
+130dogs +2,520
Other dogs +31
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +2,114

YTD Total +5,821
+130dogs +5,656
Other dogs +216
Favorites -716
Focus Picks +665
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 13th, 2017 at 8:57:11 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pirates 150 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Blue Jays -120 Focus 7X's
 Reds 103
 Athletics 117
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 13th, 2017 at 3:54:57 PM permalink
Steel,

What does your algorithm look at besides the +130 betting odds. Are you factoring in pitching match-ups or parks? And how did you come up with a 7x multiplier? Why not 3x or 10x? Is 7x some percentage of your bankroll?

I now many who don't go above 3% of bankroll.

Thank you
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 44
April 13th, 2017 at 6:27:33 PM permalink
Steel,

Also what are your expectations for the +130 picks. Do you assume they can/will hit above 40% and the avg. payoff will be 145 or so? Have you back-tested these 5-10+ years. Great results so far. Thank you.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 50
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April 14th, 2017 at 5:44:34 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

What does your algorithm look at besides the +130 betting odds. Are you factoring in pitching match-ups or parks? And how did you come up with a 7x multiplier? Why not 3x or 10x? Is 7x some percentage of your bankroll?

I now many who don't go above 3% of bankroll.

Thank you



bazooooka, sorry for the slow response. It's just that I am rarely on a site in the evening. My evenings are devoted to wife, family, friends, fine food, fine wine, and watching some of the games.

I have 2 algorithms that I apply. The newest one is used to find the picks that I have labeled as "Focus Picks". This group has nowhere near the sample size of the +130dogs.

The oldest algorithm is what is used to produce all picks, except the "Focus Picks". The +130dogs is a subset of those picks. In other words, the algorithm doesn't "look for" +130dogs.

The 7Xs just happened to be the max that I had hit in the season prior to my realizing that I had it backwards in starting at 1X and escalating it as the winnings came and the season went on. My "ah-ha" moment was in realizing that the picks did better at the beginning of the season than in the middle which is why I start at max and reduce it as the season goes on. I really have no thoughts on the amount someone else should play. It is different for all people. It's not only % of bankroll that may apply but more importantly one's appetite for risk carries the greatest weight. There is no one method that could be applied to everyone.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 50
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April 14th, 2017 at 5:51:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Pirates -700
 Rays -700
 Blue Jays -840
 Reds -100
 Athletics -100

Yesterday's results: -2,440
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -840

YTD Total +3,381
+130dogs +4,256
Other dogs +16
Favorites -716
Focus Picks -175
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 50
  • Posts: 4578
April 14th, 2017 at 5:59:35 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Also what are your expectations for the +130 picks. Do you assume they can/will hit above 40% and the avg. payoff will be 145 or so? Have you back-tested these 5-10+ years. Great results so far. Thank you.



You're in the ballpark regarding expectations. I might add that although hitting between 40% and 45% is expected, but going as low as 37% is possible.

I would not have the time to back test 5 to 10 years, so the answer is no.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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