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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 6th, 2017 at 4:16:44 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Gotcha.

I assume for bets at like +103, you expect them to have a higher win chance of winning (to give the bet an advantage) than 45%, almost 50%? Or would you still bet them at +103 even if you perceive them to have a 45% chance of winning (making it a disadvantage bet)?



I don't eliminate them. I don't adjust the expected probability. To me, it's just too fine a difference and not worth the effort.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
April 7th, 2017 at 4:53:40 AM permalink
beachmonkey, it looks like you got your perfect round early....

 White Sox +108
 Athletics +100
 Marlins +987
 Mariners +1015
 Diamondbacks +100

Yesterday's results: +2,310
+130dogs +2,002
Other dogs +208
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +1,415
+130dogs +1,302
Other dogs +226
Favorites -113
Focus Picks 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 7th, 2017 at 5:12:29 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Phillies 156 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 121
 Cubs -156
 Twins 107
 Reds 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Diamondbacks 146 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Shootress
Shootress
Joined: Jul 29, 2016
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April 7th, 2017 at 5:53:57 AM permalink
Steel, you DO have the Midas Touch!! Really appreciate you sharing your hard work with us. What a great day!
!
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 7th, 2017 at 6:02:45 AM permalink
You're welcome. There's an old saying that the only sure things in life are death and taxes......
I want to change it to be "the only sure things in life are death, taxes, and Steel's MLB picks".....LOL
Feeling good, but I know there will be bad days. Enjoying for now.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Shootress
Shootress
Joined: Jul 29, 2016
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April 7th, 2017 at 3:41:36 PM permalink
Bottom of the 9th - Galvis HR brings Philly within a run...Can they do it??
!
Shootress
Shootress
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April 7th, 2017 at 3:45:56 PM permalink
Nope. But at least they gave themselves a fighting chance.
!
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
RSShootress
April 8th, 2017 at 7:29:57 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Phillies -700
 Marlins +121
 Cubs -156
 Twins +107
 Reds +1085
 Diamondbacks +1022

Yesterday's results: +1,479
+130dogs +1,407
Other dogs +228
Favorites -156
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +2,894
+130dogs +2,709
Other dogs +454
Favorites -269
Focus Picks 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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April 8th, 2017 at 7:43:47 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Tigers EV
 Yankees -105
 Blue Jays 109
 Nationals 115
 Braves 124
 Marlins 105
 Royals 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers -173
 Diamondbacks 101
 Padres 183 +130Dogs 7X's
 Mariners -107 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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April 8th, 2017 at 11:20:38 AM permalink
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