Thread Rating:

steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 26th, 2017 at 10:35:29 AM permalink
Boy, it sure seems like the number of +130dog picks has dried up. I'm going to look at the number of picks made at this time last year vs. this year.

Today's Picks:
 Reds 111
 White Sox -132 Focus 7X's
 Astros 102
 Yankees 105
 Tigers 116
 Twins 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres 118 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 26th, 2017 at 10:59:17 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Boy, it sure seems like the number of +130dog picks has dried up. I'm going to look at the number of picks made at this time last year vs. this year.



LOL, I guess I'm going to show that I am full of crap again..........
Last year the number of +130dogs picked through 04/25/17 was 47. This year it picked 45. Close enough I guess.........just shows how little should be done on a subjective basis when data is available.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 26th, 2017 at 1:47:03 PM permalink
How far back have you tracked these (or backtested your algo)? How many years and picks? I'd assume over 1000+ if were talking year(s)? And are you near 40% over that large number of picks?
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 26th, 2017 at 2:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

How far back have you tracked these (or backtested your algo)? How many years and picks? I'd assume over 1000+ if were talking year(s)? And are you near 40% over that large number of picks?



I started the +130dogs in August of 2013.

The total picks by year since then:
2016 195
2015 470
2014 472
2013 67

The win rate by year:
2016 43.08%
2015 38.94%
2014 43.43%
2013 49.25%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 26th, 2017 at 2:56:26 PM permalink
Impressive; Have you tracked the closing lines on those picks? I'd suspect you getting about 15+ points of value on average; meaning you average bet might be near +145 but those same picks are closing around +125.

A sub 130 closing line would be consistent with the 40%+ hit rate. If you are are laying these at 145 or so you indeed will make good money and should only bet these types of picks for the next 1000 picks. 1000 picks hitting 5% above their expected rate does start to approach statistical significance I'd think.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 6:26:12 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Reds -100
 White Sox +700
 Astros -100
 Yankees +105
 Tigers -100
 Twins -700
 Padres +826

Yesterday's results: +631
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -195
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,526

YTD Total -4,141
+130dogs +3,673
Other dogs -1,115
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -5,708
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 6:27:43 AM permalink
Thanks bazooooka. I have not tracked closing lines, nor do I see how I can find the additional time to do so. I'll look into it though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 6:43:23 AM permalink
The new daily indicator is foretelling a great day for the +130dogs today.......let's hope it's right.

Today's Picks:
 Braves 195 +130Dogs 7X's
 Mariners 123
 Cardinals -179
 Rockies 110
 Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
 Astros 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres 153 +130Dogs 7X's
 Athletics 112
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
mustangsally
mustangsally
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 8:51:20 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The new daily indicator is foretelling a great day for the +130dogs today.......let's hope it's right.

Today's Picks:
 <snip>
 Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
 

I do not see where you found this one at 132.

william hill is at 116 and stations at 120
covers shows opened at 101 at 114 now

Giants home dog.
they won last night 2

go dogs!!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 9:20:13 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I do not see where you found this one at 132.

william hill is at 116 and stations at 120
covers shows opened at 101 at 114 now

Giants home dog.
they won last night 2

go dogs!!
Sally



The below is what was on SBGGlobal at the time that I posted:
Thursday, 27th April 2017
 NATIONAL LEAGUE
 1:05 PM 
 951  Marlins +1½ (-220) 8 (-105) -106
 952  Phillies -1½ (+180) 8 (-115) -104
 1:10 PM PITCHING CHANGEN Syndergaard for M Harvey
 953  Braves +1½ (-120) 7 (-105) 195
 954  Mets -1½ (EV) 7 (-115) -215
 1:10 PM 
 961  Mariners +1½ (-175) 8 (-105) 123
 962  Tigers -1½ (+155) 8 (-115) -133
 1:45 PM Doubleheader Game #1PITCHING CHANGESM Latos for C LawrenceC Martinez for A Wainwright
 969  D1 Blue Jays +1½ (-130) 8 (-120) 169
 970  D1 Cardinals -1½ (+110) 8 (EV) -179
 3:10 PM 
 955  Nationals -1½ (+135) 11 (-115) -120
 956  Rockies +1½ (-155) 11 (-105) 110
 3:45 PM 
 957  Dodgers -1½ (+115) 7½ (EV) -142
 958  Giants +1½ (-135) 7½ (-120) 132
 6:10 PM 
 963  Astros +1½ (-135) 8½ (-110) 160
 964  Indians -1½ (+115) 8½ (-110) -170
 7:10 PM 
 965  Yankees +1½ (-135) 7½ (EV) 164
 966  Red Sox -1½ (+115) 7½ (-120) -174
 7:15 PM PITCHING CHANGESC Lawrence for M LatosA Wainwright for C Martinez
 971  D2 Blue Jays +1½ (-145) 8½ (-115) 151
 972  D2 Cardinals -1½ (+125) 8½ (-105) -161
 9:40 PM 
 959  Padres +1½ (-135) 10½ (-105) 153
 960  Diamondbacks -1½ (+115) 10½ (-115) -163
 10:05 PM 
 967  Athletics +1½ (-200) 8 (-115) 112
 968  Angels -1½ (+170) 8 (-105) -122


Also, this is what Covers has:
BetNow.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 7:23:26 PM
115 (Open)
7.5-105 (Open)
04/26/17 7:42:45 PM
115
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:33:12 PM
115
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:42:47 PM
123
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:02:46 PM
125
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:42:45 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:43:00 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:32:46 AM
135
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:42:45 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:42:45 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:52:55 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:22:45 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:42:45 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:02:45 PM
116
7.5-130
BetOnline.ag
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 1:28:41 PM
101 (Open)
8-115 (Open)
04/26/17 3:48:27 PM
113
7.5100
04/26/17 4:58:28 PM
113
7.5-105
04/26/17 7:48:26 PM
113
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:38:27 PM
124
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:58:26 PM
125
7.5-110
04/26/17 11:38:26 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:38:27 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 6:48:25 AM
130
7.5-120
04/27/17 7:08:30 AM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 7:58:25 AM
127
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:18:25 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:08:29 AM
122
7.5-130
04/27/17 10:58:26 AM
115
7.5-130
BookMaker
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 3:45:15 PM
114 (Open)
7.5100 (Open)
04/26/17 7:55:14 PM
114
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:45:11 PM
114
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:55:11 PM
123
7.5-115
04/27/17 12:25:12 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:35:12 AM
131
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:55:13 AM
130
7.5-120
04/27/17 3:35:12 AM
129
7.5-120
04/27/17 8:55:12 AM
131
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:15:13 AM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:45:12 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:25:13 AM
123
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:05:13 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:15:13 AM
114
7.5-125
GTbets.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 10:21:08 PM
115 (Open)
7.5-110 (Open)
04/26/17 10:31:08 PM
115
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:41:09 PM
123
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:01:07 PM
125
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:41:06 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:31:08 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:41:06 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:31:07 AM
135
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:41:09 AM
133
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:51:07 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 3:31:08 AM
132
7.5-115
04/27/17 4:11:07 AM
131
7.5-115
04/27/17 6:51:08 AM
128
7.5-115
04/27/17 7:51:07 AM
130
7.5-115
04/27/17 9:11:06 AM
122
7.5-115
04/27/17 9:21:06 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:11:07 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:21:06 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:31:06 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:41:08 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:51:08 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:01:08 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:11:06 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:21:07 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:31:07 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:41:06 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:51:09 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:01:07 PM
116
7.5-130
04/27/17 12:11:09 PM
116
7.5-130
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 9:49:08 AM permalink
Mustangsally, I think you just need to get out of bed earlier. :-)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
April 27th, 2017 at 10:13:13 AM permalink
Which Cardinals game is that?
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 10:27:31 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Which Cardinals game is that?



1st. game. The algorithm will never pick the 2nd. half of a double header.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 1:09:09 PM permalink
Off to a great start on the day. Braves are winners. 3 more to go..............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 27th, 2017 at 1:31:51 PM permalink
Yeah, I've been following your picks as well and often I can't get a line within 5 to 10% of the numbers you post (I assuming your betting these). Thus I factor that the +130 you post are often +120 to +125 in real world application (for me at least) and I'd need to hit above 43% even since the average odds lay ended up being +135 based on small sample. That bar seems very high and I don't think one can consistently pick these dogs above 43% over 1000 picks. I hope I'm wrong. But good pick on the Braves!
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 1:51:19 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Yeah, I've been following your picks as well and often I can't get a line within 5 to 10% of the numbers you post (I assuming your betting these). Thus I factor that the +130 you post are often +120 to +125 in real world application (for me at least) and I'd need to hit above 43% even since the average odds lay ended up being +135 based on small sample. That bar seems very high and I don't think one can consistently pick these dogs above 43% over 1000 picks. I hope I'm wrong. But good pick on the Braves!



Below is the line history from Covers. My comment to you, with all due respect, and just like for Mustangsally, would be to get up earlier. :-)

BetNow.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 7:12:47 PM
-205 (Open)
7-120 (Open)
04/26/17 10:33:12 PM
-210
7-120
04/27/17 12:12:45 AM
-215
7-120
04/27/17 1:42:45 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 11:02:45 AM
-215
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:12:45 AM
-173
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:22:45 AM
-164
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:12:55 PM
-164
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:22:45 PM
-164
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:32:46 PM
-163
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:42:46 PM
-161
7.5-105
BetOnline.ag
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 1:18:27 PM
-175 (Open)
7-105 (Open)
04/26/17 3:38:36 PM
-176
7-115
04/26/17 3:48:27 PM
-201
7-115
04/26/17 4:58:28 PM
-207
7-120
04/27/17 12:18:26 AM
-217
7-120
04/27/17 1:38:27 AM
-217
7-110
04/27/17 3:38:26 AM
-217
7-107
04/27/17 6:18:26 AM
-217
7-110
04/27/17 7:18:26 AM
-220
7-110
04/27/17 8:08:26 AM
-225
7-110
04/27/17 9:38:27 AM
-208
7-115
04/27/17 9:58:26 AM
-197
7-115
04/27/17 11:08:26 AM
-173
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:18:27 AM
-165
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:28:27 AM
-161
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:08:31 PM
-159
7.5-115
04/27/17 12:18:27 PM
-159
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:48:28 PM
-158
7.5-105
04/27/17 1:08:33 PM
-160
7.5105
BookMaker
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 3:45:15 PM
-200 (Open)
7-115 (Open)
04/26/17 9:45:12 PM
-206
7-115
04/27/17 12:05:12 AM
-210
7-115
04/27/17 1:25:12 AM
-212
7-115
04/27/17 3:35:12 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 8:55:12 AM
-230
7-115
04/27/17 9:35:13 AM
-220
7-115
04/27/17 9:45:12 AM
-217
7-115
04/27/17 10:05:11 AM
-210
7-115
04/27/17 11:15:13 AM
-210
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:25:12 AM
-170
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:25:15 PM
-165
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:35:12 PM
-165
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:45:12 PM
-166
7.5-105
04/27/17 1:05:13 PM
-170
7.5-101
GTbets.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 10:21:07 PM
-205 (Open)
OFF
04/26/17 10:21:08 PM
-205
7-120 (Open)
04/26/17 10:41:09 PM
-210
7-120
04/27/17 12:11:13 AM
-215
7-120
04/27/17 1:41:08 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 3:31:08 AM
-215
7-110
04/27/17 6:21:08 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 7:21:07 AM
-222
7-115
04/27/17 8:01:08 AM
-225
7-115
04/27/17 9:41:08 AM
-215
7-120
04/27/17 10:01:07 AM
-205
7-120
04/27/17 11:41:06 AM
-164
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:11:08 PM
-164
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:21:09 PM
-164
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:31:07 PM
-163
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:41:10 PM
-161
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:51:07 PM
-161
7.5-105
04/27/17 1:01:10 PM
-161
7.5-105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 2549
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
April 27th, 2017 at 2:03:36 PM permalink
I've often found better lines than what steel posts. If anything, I'd criticize him for not getting more outs.

I have no worries about him posting fictitious lines or his integrity in general.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 2:22:11 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

I've often found better lines than what steel posts. If anything, I'd criticize him for not getting more outs.

I have no worries about him posting fictitious lines or his integrity in general.



Rigondeaux, pardon the possible dumb question here, but what do you mean by "more outs"?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 2:30:52 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Rigondeaux, pardon the possible dumb question here, but what do you mean by "more outs"?



Geez....never mind Rigondeaux. I get it.
Man, it's hell getting old............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 27th, 2017 at 2:44:43 PM permalink
For the hell of it, I just checked the line histories on the 4 +130dogs. Atlanta and San Francisco went down from when I posted.
San Diego and Houston went up. I see nothing unusual happening.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 27th, 2017 at 3:27:46 PM permalink
BetNow.eu seems to offer better than US bettors can normally get. http://www.espn.com/espn/chalk/liveOdds If you have found a was to consistently get better lines then you should fade the run lines since the +130 will have often have +160
1.5 spread lines and +150 will have +190 spread lines at times. I bet you'll find that that the extra run line juice will offset the rare 1 run game. When I lake the underdog I usually like them to win by 2 runs (not all sites allow). Same when I bet favs. 1 run games seem random and thus extra juice normally worth it to have your team win by 2+. Or a push if you can find the rare +/- 1 run line. Braves today would have paid huge if you had bet them to win by over 1.5 runs.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 27th, 2017 at 11:03:41 PM permalink
Rigo, do you use a US facing online books or bet with agent (or in Nevada)? Baseball lines are not all equal. I commend Steel for getting lines that seem to trend in his favor and open at numbers not normally available to us all. Line shopping is a skill and Euro and other offshore books often are the best (I've heard).
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 28th, 2017 at 6:00:17 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Braves +1365
 Mariners +123
 Cardinals +100
 Rockies -100
 Giants -700
 Astros -700
 Padres -700
 Athletics -100

Yesterday's results: -712
+130dogs -735
Other dogs -77
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -4,853
+130dogs +2,938
Other dogs -1,192
Favorites -891
Focus Picks -5,708
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 28th, 2017 at 6:32:06 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Mets 156 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays 128 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 110
 Indians -202 Focus 7X's
 Red Sox 112
 Rangers 106
 Braves 115
 Reds 140 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 29th, 2017 at 7:09:41 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Mets +1092
 Rays +896
 Orioles -100
 Indians -1414
 Red Sox +112
 Rangers -100
 Braves +115
 Reds -700

Yesterday's results: -99
+130dogs +392
Other dogs +27
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -518

YTD Total -4,952
+130dogs +3,330
Other dogs -1,165
Favorites -891
Focus Picks -6,226
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 29th, 2017 at 7:26:01 AM permalink
The new daily indicator was wrong the last time. It is today foretelling a good day for the +130dogs. Let's hope it's right this time.

Today's Picks:
 Rays 109 Focus 7X's
 Mets 180 +130Dogs 7X's
 Yankees -170
 Tigers -165
 Reds 153 +130Dogs 7X's
 Red Sox 108
 Indians -186 Focus 7X's
 Athletics 142 +130Dogs 7X's
 Pirates 115
 Braves 109
 Phillies 195 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 29th, 2017 at 2:28:28 PM permalink
Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.

I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.

Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 30th, 2017 at 6:39:31 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.

I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.

Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.



Thanks bazooooka, I appreciate the commentary. I'm going to review this and take a deep dive into why the Focus Picks have sucked.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 30th, 2017 at 7:12:55 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rays -700
 Mets +1260
 Yankees +100
 Tigers -165
 Reds 0
 Red Sox -100
 Indians +700
 Athletics +994
 Pirates +115
 Braves +109
 Phillies -700

Yesterday's results: +1,613
+130dogs +1,554
Other dogs +124
Favorites -65
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -3,339
+130dogs +4,884
Other dogs -1,041
Favorites -956
Focus Picks -6,226
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 30th, 2017 at 7:14:26 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Orioles 108
 Rays -112 Focus 1X's
 Indians -157 7X's
 Mets -123 Focus 7X's
 Brewers -103
 Athletics 187 Focus 7X's
 Reds 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres 125
 Rockies 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 183 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 30th, 2017 at 8:01:08 AM permalink
BTW, the +130dogs at this time last year were +5,558. This year they are +4,884. If the damn Phillies reliever wouldn't have decided to throw batting practice, I'd be well ahead of last year's pace.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 30th, 2017 at 10:25:52 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.

I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.

Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.



bazooooka, you are pretty much right on. I'm going to fade any focus pick that is greater than a 150 favorite and is the home team.
Doing so this year would meant a positive swing of 9,205. The impact on last year's Focus Picks would have increased the total win by 32%.

Thanks!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 30th, 2017 at 2:42:12 PM permalink
It's worked for me. But I don't think I'd go 7x on them since they are unproven . If you do fade them maybe designate them as fades when you post your picks. Thanks as always.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 1st, 2017 at 7:51:01 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Orioles +108
 Rays -112
 Indians +700
 Mets -861
 Brewers +100
 Athletics -700
 Reds +1085
 Padres +125
 Rockies -700
 Phillies -700

Yesterday's results: -955
+130dogs -315
Other dogs +233
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -973

YTD Total -4,294
+130dogs +4,569
Other dogs -808
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -7,199
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 1st, 2017 at 8:00:40 AM permalink
The new daily indicator is showing a good day for the +130dogs today.....

Today's Picks:
 Blue Jays 155 +130Dogs 1X's
 Reds 108
 Orioles 127
 Tigers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays 133 +130Dogs 1X's
 White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 1st, 2017 at 5:24:49 PM permalink
Steel why the 1x on the Rays and Jays. Did you see something that made you adjust down the sizing? Detroit looks like a nice pick.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 1st, 2017 at 5:59:12 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel why the 1x on the Rays and Jays. Did you see something that made you adjust down the sizing? Detroit looks like a nice pick.


Cuz Rays and Blue Jays had been underperforming or something, so he dropped them from being 7x'able.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
djatc
May 1st, 2017 at 6:04:15 PM permalink
I wish you folks spoke English on occasion so I'd have a clue of wha'ts going on here.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
Thanked by
RisingDough
May 1st, 2017 at 6:12:57 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I wish you folks spoke English on occasion so I'd have a clue of wha'ts going on here.



baseball team "rays" bad.
steeldco no big bet rays.
baseball team "blue jays" bad.
steeldco no big bet blue jays.
saloon offer baseball wager.
steeldco machine tell good wager.
sometime machine say good wager rays.
other time machine say good wager blue jays.
steeldco wager small.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_K-L9uhsBLM
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 1st, 2017 at 7:00:04 PM permalink
Looks like a 7 unit bet ($700 bucks if you normally bet $100) on the Rays and Jays would have been nice. Parlay paid 7 to 1 HUGE on it too. Maybe a 7 unit parlay bet should have been the call; I dabbled.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 1st, 2017 at 8:01:03 PM permalink
Good day to accidentally read 1x as 7x. Unfortunately I missed the Tigers and Reds.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 2nd, 2017 at 5:57:16 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Cuz Rays and Blue Jays had been underperforming or something, so he dropped them from being 7x'able.



Actually the Rays, Blue Jays, and Rangers had all been backlisted and only played for the minimum.
That blacklist today is changing to Rays, Rangers, and Phillies.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 2nd, 2017 at 5:58:18 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Blue Jays +155
 Reds +108
 Orioles +127
 Tigers +910
 Rays +133
 White Sox -700

Yesterday's results: +733
+130dogs +498
Other dogs +235
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -3,561
+130dogs +5,067
Other dogs -573
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -7,199
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 2nd, 2017 at 6:10:29 AM permalink
Once again the new daily indicator is foretelling a good day for the +130dogs. We'll see. Doing OK, but a very small sample size.

Today's Picks:
 Diamondbacks 126 Focus 7X's
 Blue Jays 184 +130Dogs 1X's
 Red Sox -235 FocusFlips 7X's
 Tigers 110
 Phillies 195 +130Dogs 1X's
 Athletics 127
 Brewers 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Angels 131 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 2nd, 2017 at 12:07:49 PM permalink
Steel,

Are you taking the Sox or the flip/fade? I'd assume the flip would be the Orioles at +210 or greater? I thought Focus flip meant taking the big Underdogs on the idea that the favorite has been over-bet?
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 2nd, 2017 at 1:13:06 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Are you taking the Sox or the flip/fade? I'd assume the flip would be the Orioles at +210 or greater? I thought Focus flip meant taking the big Underdogs on the idea that the favorite has been over-bet?



Thanks bazooooka, apparently so simple of a change that I screwed it up.............

Corrected Today's Picks:
 Diamondbacks 126 Focus 7X's
 Blue Jays 184 +130Dogs 1X's
 Orioles 215 FocusFlips 7X's
 Tigers 110
 Phillies 195 +130Dogs 1X's
 Athletics 127
 Brewers 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Angels 131 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
May 2nd, 2017 at 1:34:12 PM permalink
I like the Orioles at 215 as well. Need to only hit these 1 out of 3 times and you'd still profit. Getting a good team like the Orioles on the assumption that they will win less than 1/3rd of the time in a given match-up seems like the favorite is getting too much juice. Orioles will likely win 40-50% of their road games regardless of pitching match-ups. Also people forget starting pitching only makes up 90 or so pitches of a 140+ pitch game. And offense can trump all.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 3rd, 2017 at 4:41:48 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Diamondbacks +882
 Blue Jays -100
 Orioles -700
 Tigers +110
 Phillies -100
 Athletics -100
 Brewers -700
 Angels +917

Yesterday's results: +209
+130dogs +17
Other dogs +10
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +882

YTD Total -3,352
+130dogs +5,084
Other dogs -563
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -6,317
FocusFlips -700
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 3rd, 2017 at 6:34:44 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Diamondbacks 122 Focus 7X's
 Blue Jays -102
 Orioles 133 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 114
 Braves 119
 Rangers 166 FocusFlips 7X's
 Brewers 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 White Sox 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Giants 152 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 4th, 2017 at 8:30:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Diamondbacks -700
 Blue Jays -102
 Orioles -700
 Marlins +114
 Braves -100
 Rangers -700
 Brewers 0
 White Sox -700
 Giants +1064

Yesterday's results: -1,824
+130dogs -336
Other dogs +14
Favorites -102
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips -700

YTD Total -5,176
+130dogs +4,748
Other dogs -549
Favorites -958
Focus Picks -7,017
FocusFlips -1400
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
  • Jump to: