2017 MLB Money Line Picks

Bazooooka is looking like a genius..

Yesterday's Results:
 Marlins +100
 Royals -100
 Padres +1127
 Rays +700
 Orioles -100
 Cardinals -700
 Braves -700
 Mets +707

Yesterday's results: +1,034
+130dogs +1,027
Other dogs -100
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +707
FocusFlips -700
Alt. Run Line +185

YTD Total -18,069
+130dogs -2,225
Other dogs -187
Favorites -703
Focus Picks -12,197
FocusFlips -2,757

Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +445

Today's Picks:
 Yankees 105
 Twins 116
 Cardinals 100
 Mariners 140 +130Dogs 7X's
 Giants 105
 Diamondbacks -102 Focus 7X's
 Brewers 120 Focus 7X's
 Padres 185 +130Dogs 7X's
 Reds 180 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 141 +130Dogs 1X's
 Rays 110


Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks:
 Mariners -1.5R+325
 Padres -1.5R+440
 Reds -1.5R+385
 Phillies -1.5R+330

Where are you getting these alt run line picks?

It was suggested several times by bazooooka, with the latest being in a post on May 26th. Look back in the thread.

Yesterday's Results:
 Yankees -100
 Twins -100
 Cardinals -100
 Mariners +980
 Giants -100
 Diamondbacks -714
 Brewers -700
 Padres +1295
 Reds -700
 Phillies -100
 Rays +110

Yesterday's results: -229
+130dogs +1,475
Other dogs -290
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,414
FocusFlips 0
Alt. Run Line +140

YTD Total -18,298
+130dogs -750
Other dogs -477
Favorites -703
Focus Picks -13,611
FocusFlips -2,757

Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +585

Today's Picks:
 Diamondbacks -105 Focus 7X's
 Reds 170 +130Dogs 7X's
 Mariners 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers -102
 Astros 103 Focus 7X's
 Royals 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Nationals 113


bazooooka's alt. run picks:
  Reds -1.5R+375
 Mariners -1.5R+315
 Royals -1.5R+365

Most online books do alt lines. They take the dogs an then make them a -1.5 favorite. If Steel can pick dogs then he will be better off with the extra juice. I don't do this on all my picks. Only on my favorite dog picks.

But Steel's algo has showed promise at picking dogs thus the "alt" lines would have done him well the past few years.

***That being said; picking dogs gets harder as the year goes on. I tend toward underachieving teams like the Cubs that maybe should/could start performing closer to preseason expectations. But most dog teams are indeed "dogs" at this point.

I have never found a way to buy points in MLB and make it worthwhile. Also +130 dogs being a +385 alt line at -1.5 would be remarkable.

+130 dogs normally ends up like +230 at -1.5 (ex Orioles today at home).

However whenever one can get +300 or more on an alt line I'd look at it. The worst teams in baseball will always win more than 1/3rd of their games. At +300 you are getting better than even money on a crap team thus if they are at home or have a decent pitcher etc...I for sure will consider it. And at +330 or more it almost always makes sense to take a punt.

Quote: GWAE

The padres are +130 +385, can you buy the .5 run to make it -1? If you can I assume it will make it +250 or so, would that be better than the -1.5, would reduce variance I would think.

Quote: steeldco

bazooooka's alt. run picks:
  Reds -1.5R+375
 Mariners -1.5R+315
 Royals -1.5R+365

If it's with a reputable sportsbook, get down as much as you possibly can in both straight bets and parlays until they cut you off or adjust the number. If it's a book that has had problems in the past, consider betting small and definitely withdraw often. (I'm assuming its online and not anything in Nevada).

Have a few ideas where you might be getting these lines. Be careful talking about it, it doesn't take too many people finding out about it for something like this to disappear real quick.

TomG, I very much appreciate the commentary. I have been told of a site that can be used and that is 5Dimes. To me, and maybe its just my ignorance in this area, I had an awfully difficult time finding someone who posted alt run lines on every game.

If you use multiple sites you can find almost every game. Also some sites don't post the alt lines until closer till first pitch. But normally an hour or two before first pitch the "alt" lines will be posted. And if you find ones near +300 realize that even a team of all triple A replacement players would be expected to win around 45-50 MLB games (give or take) just because of the variance in baseball. And normally you won't find a team below 68 wins; .ie .good assumption that most (near all) teams can win 40-45% of their games even the terrible ones.

Quote: steeldco

TomG, I very much appreciate the commentary. I have been told of a site that can be used and that is 5Dimes. To me, and maybe its just my ignorance in this area, I had an awfully difficult time finding someone who posted alt run lines on every game.

Quote: steeldco

TomG, I very much appreciate the commentary. I have been told of a site that can be used and that is 5Dimes. To me, and maybe its just my ignorance in this area, I had an awfully difficult time finding someone who posted alt run lines on every game.

The lines you were quoting were 5dimes were for -2.5. If you're getting those numbers for -1.5 and you keep betting them they will limit your account to $5 max on them and all other prop bets. Until that happens, bet them for as much as you can. Hiding them in parlays will give you more time. 5dimes will pay.

Pinnacle has them on their drop down menu. The Greek and William Hill both have them. Shouldn't be too hard to find another place to play them at.

Quote: bazooooka

If you use multiple sites you can find almost every game. Also some sites don't post the alt lines until closer till first pitch. But normally an hour or two before first pitch the "alt" lines will be posted. And if you find ones near +300 realize that even a team of all triple A replacement players would be expected to win around 45-50 MLB games (give or take) just because of the variance in baseball. And normally you won't find a team below 68 wins; .ie .good assumption that most (near all) teams can win 40-45% of their games even the terrible ones.

I agree to an extent, although I'm not particularly sure what you're saying.

Just because a team or set of players has a 40% win rate over an entire season, where they play against a range of very bad to very good teams.....that doesn't mean they always have a 40% probability to win any game (assuming same set of players and all that)....they might have a 50-55% winrate against the poor teams and a 30% winrate against the good teams. So even though the average may be 40% (or whatever such number), it doesn't mean you can apply that number to every game those players play.

There's also going to be less variance in the outcome between a terrible team and a good team. Also, I'd have to do some more thinking on this variance aspect, but right now I'm leaning more towards "the odds are the odds", and positive or negative variance evens it out in the end.

Quote: TomG

The lines you were quoting were 5dimes were for -2.5. If you're getting those numbers for -1.5 and you keep betting them they will limit your account to $5 max on them and all other prop bets. Until that happens, bet them for as much as you can. Hiding them in parlays will give you more time. 5dimes will pay.

Pinnacle has them on their drop down menu. The Greek and William Hill both have them. Shouldn't be too hard to find another place to play them at.

TomG, I'm sorry but I think that you may have misunderstood. I will begin using 5Dimes today, if they produce lines early enough. I wasn't using them previously.

Also, if lines aren't published early then this test of bazooooka's thesis, by me, will probably drop off my task list to publish. I may play some or all if I find a reputable site for them, but I do not plan on making this a full time job by checking lines all day and then publishing. I have other interests.

Again TomG, I appreciate the help and commentary.

Yesterday's Results:
 Diamondbacks 700
 Reds -700
 Mariners 910
 Rangers 100
 Astros 103
 Royals 910
 Nationals 113

Yesterday's results: +2,136
+130dogs +1,120
Other dogs +113
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +803
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -16,162
+130dogs +370
Other dogs -364
Favorites -603
Focus Picks -12,808
FocusFlips -2,757

Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +700

OK. No alt. run lines were available at 5 Dimes. Bazooooka, I would suggest that if you would like to follow these, then feel free to publish the picks and lines here. I won't be doing it.

Today's Picks:
 Reds 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
 Twins 110 Focus 7X's
 Athletics 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles -102
 Brewers 170 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers 120
 White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Dodgers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Giants 160 +130Dogs 7X's

Great day yesterday! Thanks Steel!

How'd you come up with +700 on the alt. run lines? You had +375, +315, +365. Only the Mariners (+315) covered the -1.5 runs. Reds lost outright (4-6) and Royals only won by 1 (1-0) without covering.

Quote: Shootress

Great day yesterday! Thanks Steel!

You're welcome! Let's hope for many more!

Quote: RS

How'd you come up with +700 on the alt. run lines? You had +375, +315, +365. Only the Mariners (+315) covered the -1.5 runs. Reds lost outright (4-6) and Royals only won by 1 (1-0) without covering.

RS, that +700 is YTD. But it is really a moot point since I am not going to publishing these since I can't get lines early.

Quote: steeldco

RS, that +700 is YTD. But it is really a moot point since I am not going to publishing these since I can't get lines early.

Ah, I didn't catch the YTD part. It was at the bottom below the "YTD" part....heh, I'll chalk it up to sleep deprivation.


Big day today, lots of 7x doggos.

Quote: RS

Ah, I didn't catch the YTD part. It was at the bottom below the "YTD" part....heh, I'll chalk it up to sleep deprivation.


Big day today, lots of 7x doggos.

Yep. No worries.
Lots of doggies.

RS,

If/when you find a 30% (or less) implied moneyline then in the long run you will be up on those bets. There is no situation that consistently comes up short that often. I'll take a crap team against Kershaw at 30% implied. Variance makes those kinds of dogs winners after hundred of games. You will not find a large enough sample to suggest otherwise.

>>
>>
I agree to an extent, although I'm not particularly sure what you're saying.

Just because a team or set of players has a 40% win rate over an entire season, where they play against a range of very bad to very good teams.....that doesn't mean they always have a 40% probability to win any game (assuming same set of players and all that)....they might have a 50-55% winrate against the poor teams and a 30% winrate against the good teams. So even though the average may be 40% (or whatever such number), it doesn't mean you can apply that number to every game those players play.

There's also going to be less variance in the outcome between a terrible team and a good team. Also, I'd have to do some more thinking on this variance aspect, but right now I'm leaning more towards "the odds are the odds", and positive or negative variance evens it out in the end.

Steel,

You don't need to overthink it. Just add 90 points to any of your +130 picks. That's how you can track this if you're not laying the bets. Just use your normal morning odds and adjust the dog picks by the +90 for the "alt" =1.5 lines.

**This will be very close to the books (which differ anyhow) and if algo works you'kl be quite happy. So far it's been great; since your algo hits more than 33% and you will be laying bets at above +220 on average.

Quote: steeldco

RS, that +700 is YTD. But it is really a moot point since I am not going to publishing these since I can't get lines early.

Steel, the alt -1.5 lines exist all over and normally are 80 to 110 points above the odds you play. See below for today's example. If you want to track them just add 90 points to your +130 picks.
""
MLB - ALTERNATE RUNLINES - MAY 31
ALTERNATE RUNLINES
May 31 6957 MIL 1½ RL -1½+255
7:10 PM 6958 NYM 1½ RL +1½-325
May 31 6959 LAD 1½ RL -1½+170
8:15 PM 6960 STL 1½ RL +1½-220
May 31 6961 WAS 1½ RL +1½-425
10:15 PM 6962 SFO 1½ RL -1½+325
May 31 6965 OAK 1½ RL -1½+205
6:10 PM 6966 CLE 1½ RL +1½-255
May 31 6967 NYY 1½ RL
7:05 PM 6968 BAL 1½ RL
May 31 6969 TAM 1½ RL +1½-280
8:05 PM 6970 TEX 1½ RL -1½+220
May 31 6971 BOS 1½ RL +1½-305
8:10 PM 6972 CWS 1½ RL -1½+245
May 31 6973 DET 1½ RL -1½+160
8:15 PM 6974 KAN 1½ RL +1½-200
May 31 6977 ATL 1½ RL -1½+175
10:05 PM 6978 LAA 1½ RL +1½-225
May 31 6979 COL 1½ RL -1½+230
10:10 PM 6980 SEA 1½ RL +1½-290

Quote: steeldco

OK. No alt. run lines were available at 5 Dimes. Bazooooka, I would suggest that if you would like to follow these, then feel free to publish the picks and lines here. I won't be doing it.

Today's Picks:
 Reds 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
 Twins 110 Focus 7X's
 Athletics 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles -102
 Brewers 170 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers 120
 White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Dodgers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Giants 160 +130Dogs 7X's

Yesterday's Results:
 Twins -700
 Athletics +945
 Orioles +100
 Brewers +1190
 Rangers -100
 White Sox -700
 Dodgers -700
 Rockies -700
 Giants -700

Yesterday's results: -2,165
+130dogs -1,465
Other dogs -100
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -18,327
+130dogs -1,095
Other dogs -464
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -13,508
FocusFlips -2,757

Today's Picks:
 Rockies 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles 113
 Yankees 142 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 105
 Twins 105

Steel,

Both your winning dogs covered their alt lines again. Thus you left about $1100 bucks on the table at 7x bet size. You picks are up on the year if using the alt lines. For kicks you really should just add +90 to your picks and track the alts (on the side) that I hope you're playing these. Your profitable +130 picks (i.e. picks that win on the -.5 line) do so at a clip above 50% even when using the alt. Anything above 33% and it makes cents =) Using the alt lines pay about $1900 on average when sized at 7x; this one change, and sticking to your dog picks, made your system a huge winner. I hope someone else sees that.

Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Both your winning dogs covered their alt lines again. Thus you left about $1100 bucks on the table at 7x bet size. You picks are up on the year if using the alt lines. For kicks you really should just add +90 to your picks and track the alts (on the side) that I hope you're playing these. Your profitable +130 picks (i.e. picks that win on the -.5 line) do so at a clip above 50% even when using the alt. Anything above 33% and it makes cents =) Using the alt lines pay about $1900 on average when sized at 7x; this one change, and sticking to your dog picks, made your system a huge winner. I hope someone else sees that.

bazooooka, I mentioned before that you are free to post those picks here. I'm not into making up numbers. OK?

Quote: steeldco

I'm not into making up numbers.

And good on you for that. Wagers that are publicly posted in advance of the event using real betting lines one has actually found open and readily available for real-money wagering at the time of the posting is the MOST essential thing. There are enough phony fantasies around (including sometimes popping up here - for a while) and I think you deserve some applause for not being that. So there, FWIW.

The real numbers are out there on dozens of sites. Or you can use conservative adjustments like I suggested which are "real" and not "made up" since they will likely understate the average odds long term. You should realize that tracking the alt lines is to your benefit and to anyone who follows you. Your model has merit; but you play it the wrong way. Since you like early lines you can make the adjustment or not. I do track these in my real account. And I will chime in from time to time. I hope you don't mind.

Quote: bazooooka

The real numbers are out there on dozens of sites. Or you can use conservative adjustments like I suggested which are "real" and not "made up" since they will likely understate the average odds long term. You should realize that tracking the alt lines is to your benefit and to anyone who follows you. Your model has merit; but you play it the wrong way. Since you like early lines you can make the adjustment or not. I do track these in my real account. And I will chime in from time to time. I hope you don't mind.

Cool. Chime in whenever you want. Tracking those lines may or may not be to my benefit. They definitely are not if they can't be accessed within the time that I have allotted to do this stuff. As I've said, I have other interests. Many lucrative. No need to spend too much time on this.

DD,

You can get Yankees at +230 on the alt line still. Rockies were similar and it looks like they will cover the alt. If your playing his Dogs you should ask yourself. Do I like this team to win and if so "why only by 1 run"?

Quote: DrawingDead

And good on you for that. Wagers that are publicly posted in advance of the event using real betting lines one has actually found open and readily available for real-money wagering at the time of the posting is the MOST essential thing. There are enough phony fantasies around (including sometimes popping up here - for a while) and I think you deserve some applause for not being that. So there, FWIW.

Quote: bazooooka

DD,

You can get Yankees at +230 on the alt line still. Rockies were similar and it looks like they will cover the alt. If your playing his Dogs you should ask yourself. Do I like this team to win and if so "why only by 1 run"?

Steeldco probably has his reasons regarding tracking and placing bets, not to mention having to search for bettable games. If he wants to post whatever game then it's up to him.

We are getting picks for free, and steeldco has been chugging allowing with no fail. I don't know what else you expect from the guy.

The Colorado Rockets are covering and game is almost over. It's a lock.

Quote: bazooooka

DD,

You can get Yankees at +230 on the alt line still. Rockies were similar and it looks like they will cover the alt. If your playing his Dogs you should ask yourself. Do I like this team to win and if so "why only by 1 run"?

I'm sure that'll be quite interesting and maybe very useful for others (even though not to me) if, and only if:

a) They have a book easily and reliably available to them that they might routinely use daily to do that; and,

b) It fits well within their individual interest and base of knowledge.

I am not "playing his Dogs" nor would I EVER think of playing someone else's wagering choices handed to me, where I don't know every single dot and tittle of exactly how and why they have arrived at their opinion, and so haven't even looked at them from a lot more relevant metrics than what he chooses to use in his thread, so I can evaluate it for myself. Because that would be an extremely stupid thing to ever do. I play MY things, which include MLB moneyline wagers at Nevada books, and I'm occasionally interested in the things some others are doing for what I might possibly learn from it, or sometimes just for curiosity. But NEVER to bet them simply because THEY picked them. That would be childlike idiocy.

All of my own wagers have been and will continue to be with brick and mortar books (and their online apps) with US casinos licensed in Nevada. I don't choose to do the offshore Bananastan thing, and don't plan to. With the books I frequent, I have never seen these alt lines, in those US-legal Nevada-licensed books; but that doesn't mean much since I don't ever look for them and haven't asked, because I've never delved into betting any sort of run lines. And don't plan to start anytime soon, as I wouldn't want to without doing the extensive analysis required to thoroughly understand what I'm doing with them backwards, forwards, and every which way. One run in baseball is, of course, a very big deal. Setting out on the task of precisely quantifying that big deal under varied circumstances to my own satisfaction would be another big deal to me. Because, betting ANYTHING for significant money without first making the effort required to gain a thorough understanding of all the relevant intricacies of it, would obviously be profoundly stupid, amounting to becoming nothing but a garden variety extremely lazy impulsive wishful thinking gambler. And I'm just not all that eager to expand my own MLB interests in that direction. I also don't happen to ever bet MLB game o/u totals. Not interested; so sue me.

I will take your word for it on the availability of those "alt" lines from online offshore venues, as I have no experience wagering with whatever virtual "books" you'd be using and therefore no basis for questioning that. Or to care. But screw me and you, in whatever order. What matters here is whether SDC finds them readily available to HIM. And then, for those following the thread, whether the source of whatever he uses can be independently confirmed at any moment by anyone and everyone. So, show HIM and others you want to interest in this with a direct link if you feel it will be persuasive. It will be wasted on me. I'll just keep on looking in occasionally, specifically to follow the MLB money line wagering, and only MLB MLs, because that's what overlaps with my interests.

Thanks for the info, and I do mean that sincerely, but it doesn't happen to fit for me.

I probably have no business saying this, as a purely recreational bettor who uses a local book (old school!!) ...and a WOV member who hardly ever posts..but I can't help it. You guys have an open forum, on this website and many others, where you can post your viewpoints. It seems that you prefer to spend your time trying to convince Steel that there's a better way for him to do his thing. I find it kind of antagonistic, and, if I'm being honest, a little bit rude. I don't claim to understand all of the mechanics behind your suggestions, but what I do know is this. You've got a guy here who not only shares his many hours of hard work and research with you...but expects nothing in return. Also, he never has a cross word for any of you (even you, Drawing Dead) who are clearly mocking in some of your posts. If you don't agree with Steel's algo, start a thread with your own. But don't spoil it for the bettors like me who enjoy coming to this thread every day to see what's next. Agree to disagree, but remember that at the heart of this thread is a guy spending precious time to share the fruits of his labor with all of us. Again, I apologize if I'm out of line, or if I've misconstrued something, but this has been bothering me for the better part of a week and I had to get it out. Thanks Steel, for all you do. Peace...out!

The good ol' Yankeerooskies are winning 9-0. Another lock.

It most definitely is certainly your business to say what you like, if you like. And last I looked, someone's post count or frequency had nothing to do with that. But it seems there may be a problem expanding that concept beyond Shootress.

Quote: Shootress

Also, he never has a cross word for any of you (even you, Drawing Dead) who are clearly mocking in some of your posts.

Oh, really! Good grief, I wasn't aware I'd "mocked" him. If you think so, you didn't read what I've written in addressing him, now or in the past. Since you're so concerned about what I think, what I do think from having read the whole five+ years, is that even though it isn't collectively a success to date for those who actually look, I happen to think he's quite sincere, and that he's much more diligent than many and honest in his public sportsbetting efforts. No small thing, since most who do the endless tout threads that exist all over the web like this are not any of that. And doing some of it publicly while trying to work it out imposes good discipline, and in a tough way eliminating the gambling degenerate's "that doesn't count" thinking, and that is deserving of some kudos.

And, since you're so concerned about it, I also think that over the long haul he's not likely to improve a lot upon his overall existing five year record of net losses without re-thinking some some aspects to improve his long-range expectation. And, some of those are things he's characterized as "I believe" so after a few brief exchanges on some of those subjects, I'm quite content to let him be him, agreeing that we disagree, as he wishes.

If I "mock" anything, I will indeed "mock" the two people who've seemed determined to demand that there should never be anything but "rah-rah, don't anybody say anything could ever be less than wonderful, go team, rah-rah!" That mindless demand for a private fan club in a public forum begs to be mocked. But, believe it or not, this is not the first or only time this kind of sports betting effort has been done, amazingly enough! And multiple people here have been rather gentle over the last several years with an attitude of occasionally wanting to help on some really fundamental mistakes that amount to repealing basic arithmetic and the most fundamental logical concepts involved in any gambling proposition. Unless things like The Gambler's Fallacy which has been understood and written about extensively in logic, basic statistics, and gambling psychology for centuries, is no longer a fallacy, and The Monte Carlo Delusion wasn't an illusion, or these things don't apply to those who just believe hard enough.

And those who've asked questions or offered different thoughts have NOT been as courteously received by the very strange little "Don't Nobody Never Go Boo to My Free Pix" club. Guess what, there are THOUSANDS of "picks" you can find with a few clicks, at any given time about a third of them will appear to be winning, and some of them are on non-forum sites where you'll never hear any of the questioning that bothers you so much.

If you don't like this, you're really just going to have to grow up and get used to it. And most of all, you really, really, REALLY don't want to ever accidentally venture into any of the sites geared for people who are seriously into sports betting, and you sure don't want to see them remarking on all the "Free Pix!" I've seen nothing here, from anyone, this year, or last, or year before, that has been remotely harsh or discourteous towards your hero. But like Feathers, you didn't actually read what that said above, did you? No you didn't. Too many words, so what you just took from it is "He's not cheering like me, and not saying how much he's grateful for 'free-pix' so he's being mean to my guy!" 'Cause some people are just not that sort of "nice" that they always just say "you look great" and smile when someone's fly is open or they're trailing three feet of toilet tissue stuck to their heel. Some are the sort who sometimes try to do what your hero's signature line says. Right there, see it? Those rotten meanies, who don't just cheer.

Quote: WhoDat?

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

I think steeldco is aware that there's a large number of people betting real money on his picks each day , and he doesn't want to include a bet type that may not be available to his loyal followers. Being one of those people , and not having access to the alt run lines , I'm appreciative of his not using them

Yesterday's Results:
 Rockies +910
 Orioles +113
 Yankees +994
 Marlins -100
 Twins +105

Yesterday's results: +2,022
+130dogs +1,904
Other dogs +118
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -16,305
+130dogs +809
Other dogs -346
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -13,508
FocusFlips -2,757

Today's Picks:
 Orioles 120
 Blue Jays 105
 Pirates 104
 Rangers 118
 Brewers 180 +130Dogs 7X's
 Indians 100
 Athletics 125 Focus 7X's

Congratulations on being ahead on the 130 doggos.

Quote: RS

Congratulations on being ahead on the 130 doggos.

Thanks!! Hopefully they have turned for the season. Unfortunately, the +130dogs will be going on hiatus starting next Monday.
We'll be getting dogflips instead.

Ok, you got me. I guess I deserved that.🤐

The "alt" lines hit again yesterday on your +130 picks; today your fading Kershaw. Gutsy call, if you do it on the "alt" you can can get almost 4 to 1.

**Your +130s are now up over 15K year to date according to back-tests. And near 5K in past few weeks if you had been betting them at 7x bet.

Quote: bazooooka

**Your +130s are now up over 15K year to date according to back-tests. And near 5K in past few weeks if you had been betting them at 7x bet.

Is that with a 70-100 increase on the odds?

Yes, 70 to 100 points added to all his +130 winners (thus +200 to +230 when starting from 130; if starting from +160 or more you normally can add 100+ pts). It adds up nicely and 90% of games will be in this range; occasionally you can get a +380 like fading today's Dodger game on the "alt" since Kershaw is going for 2000K club.

The "alt" lines add value unless "alt" lines start hitting at less than 50% once you've screen all +130 winners. Normally only 1/5th or so of all games end up within a run though; thus its unlikely the "alt" adjustment will kill a good algo. But if the algo is bad then the "alt" lines don't matter. He still needs to hit the +130s around 35-40% But his +130 algo has shown merit and is his main contribution; imho.

Steel does a great job tracking picks. I suggested a variation for him (and his followers). Any that followed/played his picks can, and should have, used the variation; imho. The future may be different.

As far as "alt" picks they have been around for more than a decade. Not hard to find nor "made up".

Quote: djatc

Steeldco probably has his reasons regarding tracking and placing bets, not to mention having to search for bettable games. If he wants to post whatever game then it's up to him.

We are getting picks for free, and steeldco has been chugging allowing with no fail. I don't know what else you expect from the guy.

THE MILWAUKEE BEAVERS ARE A LOCK!!!