Wizard's Blog
NFL picks week 10
Last week I went 2-2-1. My overall record is now 17-18-1. ROI is -7.0%.Week 10 picks:
Cin +7.5 -115
Hou +1 105
Chi +1 -105
KC -1 -105
Phil -3 -115
NFL picks week 9
Last week I went 4-1, bringing up my season record to 15-16-0. ROI is -7.3%.Week 9 picks:
Buf +3 -115
Car +6.5 -110
TB +9 -110
Det +4 -110
Mia +5 -110
I stink at poker part II
After my last rant about how I stink at poker I took a break from it for a while. Recently I came back, just playing the 50¢/$1 game at Bodog. However, this evening I couldn't get any other players, but there was a game $1/$2 game going so I joined that.There was the kind of player there who I've seen many times before. Basically the player who raises 90% of the time. Maybe he would back down to a check-raise with garbage, but otherwise he just raised, raised, raised -- all night long.
With this kind of player I lower my standards, and will call with a middle pair, or basically any hand well above the median. However, this guy just kept catching the right cards over and over. If I had a straight, he would catch a flush on the river. If I had a set of aces, he would catch a straight along the way.
Anyway, this guy gave me a royal spanking for two straight hours before I just now gave up and waived the white flag. Do I stink or what? I think a robot that was programmed to raise 100% of the time could beat me. I get scared out 80% of the time, and the other 20%, where I should be recouping, I take one bad beat after another. It wasn't just me. There were two other players there, at separate times, who seemed to play "by the book." The first one was cussing out the lucky raiser, and the second was ranting about how the game was fixed.
There is just something not right with my game, and I can't put my finger on it. If I had any sense I would just quit the game. I can see a bad player getting lucky, but for two straight hours in a fast game, it is just hard to take.
Comments
Quote: WoOI lower my standards, and will call with a middle pair, or basically any hand well above the median... I get scared out 80% of the time...
to make sense of the above, you mean normally you stay only 80% of the time when someone raises, but in this case [a case with lower standards], it's an example of what happens the other 20% of the time?
To "protect" myself against bluffing, I often call a raiser with cards that are not so hot, but seldom middle pairs. What game were you playing?
In a recent thread someone was remarking about how poker players have to endure unusually large stretches of bad variance. Could it be that this is 90% of your problem?
What I meant was that if you put me against a player who raises a lot, I will fold by the end of the hand 80% of the time. The other 20% I would try to string him along, and probably do a check raise on the turn or river. However, the game in question, I still lost those hands because he would catch exactly the card he needed on the river. I'm just an average poker player, at best, but I truly feel I had a horrible run of cards yesterday. It wasn't just me, other players were complainging the raiser was extremely lucky too.
Today I had another losing session. This time it was clearly to a good player who seemed to read me well. The loss was not too bad, but I deleted the Bodog Poker from my computer afterward. Hopefully I'll have some self control and not download it again. This is my pledge -- no more online poker for six months. If you hear of me playing before May 1 kick me.
I've actually been a 'victim' to a poker bot in a tournament before. It was kind of funny considering he and I were the only ones left (it was a small, 1 table tournament). I started to notice that he was raising every single hand...and so when I actually had the nuts, I just went all in and of course, the bot called.
That of course, is a terrible way to try and win a tournament, but hell, it got him to heads up...
As to your plight...who really knows in this day and age. Someone could easily program a bot to raise pre-flop every time, and then read the board and make a percentage decision on whether to raise or fold. Then again, I play with people like this at my local joint too. They will raise almost every single hand...sometimes they'll get lucky and catch, beating the follower, and sometimes they'll just get everyone to fold. It's just really aggressive playing that can either win big or lose big.
Do what I did. I got involved with a poker league.
There's no cost (except to patronize the bar holding the game). If the league is anything like the league I'm in, the people tend to be open and honest when giving you advice. And you can even ask about hands that you're not in. Just remember the rule to not talk about hands that are still in progress.
Check out NevadaPokerLeague.com. The locations page just has names and days, while the schedule includes streed addresses. I had to dig to see that most of the locations are in or around Las Vegas.
License plate spotting
I saw this beauty at the Red Rock parking lot recently. I think this is the second time only I have seen a Puerto Rico license plate on the road.
Comments
you'd think more people would just drive over! [g]
Did the plate get to remain there after the picture, collector?
"Did the plate get to remain there after the picture, collector?"
Of course. I have one in my own collection, which I can look at any time. They go on eBay for about $50.
NFL picks week 8
My slide continues as I went 2-3 last week. Season to date is now 11-15 and ROI is -19.1%. Here are my picks for week 8.Jack +6.5 -110
GB +6 -110
Buf +7.5 -110
Ten +3.5 -110
TB +3 EV
Comments
Glad to see someone else thinks Buffalo is a good pick. For -115 you would think they would give you +3.5.
BTW: What stats do you use most when picking a game, other than favoring underdogs?
Answered question above by PM. Trust me, it is nothing brilliant.