odiousgambit's Blog

5 Players Risk $1M, Then Go Back in Time Machine

Right bettors, and roughly $1 Million, that is. Each player risked a total amount of money, as if making bets from a bankroll, but not returning any winnings to that bankroll. The players would go with max odds at a $10 table, 10X odds, and go with 44,000 rolls of the dice, plus enough rolls to finish an unresolved bet. With Wincraps the same player then was able to use the same RGN and go 350,000 rolls with no odds! In this case, of course, only the first 44,000 rolls were the same, but I wanted to look at that too. Bear in mind there is a variation in the dollars actually bet, the consistency is in the number of rolls.

See the thread post,
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/11680-hourly-expected-loss-for-craps/4/#post190954

Clearly we have too few trials, so there is going to be sampling error. But I think this has probative value. It is not surprising that in each case, the free odds meant a better HE in actuality, not just in theory. With 44,000 rolls I'd say that would be a trend only and not a guarantee.

In one case, the Max bettor had positive results after 44,000 rolls. I checked it out and after 350,000 rolls he is up $6010. Want some bad news? At one point he was down $6020. Survivable but would he be so bummed at that point that he would give up? Quite possible.

Note the parameter that only $1 million, roughly, is risked. Thus it still cannot be said that free odds benefit, unless there is such a parameter. This is just not the same as spending the same amount of time at the table as a player would anyway, but adding the free odds to the bets. That is a matter of increasing the amount you are betting.

In regards to "calling out the Wiz" I would have to say none of this would surprise Michael. And it is not a test that tries to show that a betting system does help win or lose; he didn't make it clear he wasn't addressing the expectation by dollar amount?

This does illustrate that a player should not expect the EV by dollars to be consistent with free odds; also, it indicates that variance is a monumental factor with free odds.

Player	Win/Loss with max odds	Win/Loss with no odds	% with max odds	% with no odds
#1	-$6530	-$17,020	-0.66%	-1.65%
#2	+$16,350	-$12,290	+1.66%	-1.18%
#3	-$12,500	-$14280	-1.24%	-1.37%
#4	-$5040	-$18,040	-0.50%	-1.74%
#5	-$6970	-$17,920	-0.70%	-1.74%

Another Gracie Allen Moment?

Buzzpaff recently related such a moment by his wife, but she is not the only one.

Maybe I should have titled this "a glimpse into the modern young mind" , I wonder if it isn't fair to say it is just the ditzy female mind that gets silly when it comes to cell phones and I-phones and social networks.

My wife and I both recently have been reading various articles about how the up and coming generation is so into their I-phones and such, that they spend so much money on it that [the articles have it] this must be cutting into their disposable income to the degree that it is a choice to do that at the expense of something else. One article said that the housing industry and the car industry both are seeing huge changes with the younger bunch, the latter trending away from fancy cars and houses [but don't think of taking away constant access to the internet!]

Anyway, while we were discussing this, I mentioned that on my irritatingly high but comparatively inexpensive cell phone plan that goes along with buying a phone [for years I was issued a phone by my employer, a thing of the past it seems]. I am shocked to the core when I hear what the typical person is paying.

Anyway, I mention to my wife that I could be paying even another $10 to get unlimited texting. That I go long periods without texting, and that an enormous amount for me would be 20 texts per month, at 20 cents a text. My wife, a pretty sharp girl really, has a Gracie Allen moment and instantly suggested I pay the $10 and get unlimited! It really is her instinct to go for the hokie-doke on these things. I call this interchange a glimpse into the female mind when I talk to other guys.

I just changed my cell phone plan, which took away an hour of my life on the phone I can never get back. But I own the phone now and can pick my plan. Verizon didn't make it easy to change, and I hate using the phone to set stuff like this up [required!] But they actually have some pay-per-use plans that are really about as cheap as anyone's, and they probably have the best service. I signed up for paying for each minute and each text!

I predict this will cut my cost to 1/3 of what it was for 10 out of 12 months; a few months might be 2/3 instead. This for the simple reason I don't use the phone that much. I might go a week without using it at all! I told my wife I signed up for a cheaper plan without giving her the details, she probably would shake her head to think I have no set number of free minutes or "unlimited" anything. One Gracie Allen moment was enough! [g]

M-Live Sept. 12

Without much warning, I got a nice offer for free play withing a very narrow window of time, on one day too. I had thought I'd have no problem showing up at the right time [luckily]. Later events have shown that I was showing up for something big, to my surprise. The email said it was to be a "sneak peek", so although I realized it might be busier than usual, turns out it was nightmare overcrowded. Word has it a lot of people were miffed, not getting in, or giving up trying. I almost turned around myself, but the incentive was pretty good and by the time I realized the problem, I could see I was only going to be a little late, within what was likely to be a normal grace period. I parked in a lot nearby and walked a quarter mile, assuming the garage was going to be hellish.

Inside, packed, but I usually deal with that OK. It's the bumper to bumper traffic situation I can't stand. Nonetheless, long lines everywhere, and hard to find a machine I wanted. Finally someone gets up from a seat that has e-craps. I sit down, see it is $10 min. Perhaps that was everywhere, and no way can I be picky. I decided to make a few bets and get out of there, knowing there would be long lines at the cashier. Bear in mind too, as far as I knew, information hard to come by, things were only going to get worse, and I wanted to get the hell out before rush hour.

I wanted to do the buffet again [see previous post], but with the line and my anxiety, forget it!

After thinking about it for a while, I have decided that what was going on was purely a situation where Cordish, the big tuna here, was going to speak, and his handlers have learned in order to schmooze him, there must be a big crowd. So they send out this generous free play offer to thousands of people all to come in this narrow little window of time! They really ought to be ashamed of themselves, such BS is un-neighborly and even unsafe due to the traffic mess. Truth be told, if all they did was have some big drawings, that probably would have brought plenty of people in. This was unnecessary and apparently caused more hard feelings than it was worth. Are they going to make it up to their patrons who got pissed?

But the money was there, and I did take it.

M-Live Buffet

I returned to M-Live the last week of August to find only the weekly offer of $5 on the account. Going by fortunately wasn't that inconvenient for me. I staked the $5 on the banker in Baccarat and watched it go bye-bye in one hand. I had told myself I wasn't going to stake more unless more was on the card, not really wanting to get sucked into a routine of going to this place unless it continued to pay to do so, at least theoretically. And I played no more, wanting to check out the buffet for some time, and this was my chance.

IMO the buffet was outstanding. Judging by a dearth of positive reviews I could find, It has to be true that another person would not have been impressed, and it is certainly true that there were some things you could pick at, mostly relating to spotty service. And none of it was too good to be true. For example even though New York Strip was served, it was in such a manner it might as well have been a cheaper cut; it was not steaks laid out but thin cuts lying in a sauce. Perhaps one's taste in buffets can be like taste in pizza, where what one person likes is completely contrary to what another does. But I thought it was the best buffet for the price that I had been to in a long, long time.

The $18 cost was reduced to $16 with player's card, not bad, not spectacular. But once with plate in hand, the Diner finds he has a choice of Seafood, Southern food [the section perhaps un-named], BBQ, Italian, and Asian. The Seafood section had shrimp and various fish, including portions of Mahi Mahi that would be a $25 entree at many restaurants, and more [my notes fail me now as to what].

A carving station had roast pork, and there was also an omelette station. Service was spotty, though, at either place. You find yourself waiting for someone to show up. I was too impatient for that, lots of goodies beckoned.

The Southern section [whatever it was called] had Collard greens cooked absolutely as authentic as you would want, with homestyle mac and cheese and chicken. I loaded up here first, loving that stuff.

The BBQ section had NY Strip, as mentioned, a good cut no matter how served, and also BBQ brisket and BBQ chicken.

The Italian section, un-named I think, was a little spotty, it probably varies. No pasta, which was odd, but surely they usually have it. Outstanding meatballs though.

Something big with me is to have a lot of good interesting vegetable dishes. I can really almost get desperate when traveling to try to keep to a balanced diet, and a buffet with lots of vegetables is a goldmine, allowing me to "catch up" [I really can nearly get ill if a bad diet follows me all vacation]. So even though it wasn't my problem this time, they had it, and I was glad to see it. The salad bar had spinach and 'spring mix', and also chick peas and kidney beans, the latter two items a real life saver sometimes when traveling. They had the classic mistake of not using dark red variety for the kidney beans; like I say, there are some things to pick at.

As for dessert, certainly there is a section for that, but believe it or not I have little interest in that at a buffet, I get too stuffed on what I really want, and I just don't check it out. But they have soft-serve Yogurt, and I had some of that. It was like soft-serve ice cream, and I wondered if that's what it was without a sign saying so. But my wife says the soft serve yogurt is like ice cream, so probably I just couldnt tell the difference.

I am sure there are some Casino buffets that are better, I'm not the expert, but at what price? This one does blow Harrington's [DE] buffet away, that much I can say.

Maryland Live trip 3

Tuesday returned to Maryland Live! and will continue to do so weekly if they continue to put money in my account.


This time I wanted to get the facts and took better notes.


I started with 308 points plus $15 from the house in cash. I ended with 975 points, finally remembering to check that.


This time around had a good long session. I marked as accurately as I could how many $5 line bets I made, all on the Don't or the DC, on a little notepad. 65 line bets. Sixty five over a 2 hour period! And, yes, I sometimes had as many as 3 going simultaneously. I guess I have been way over-estimating how much betting I was doing there, considering the pace. I also tried to mark how many times I put up free odds, although I had the feeling I might have failed to make a note on that a few times. In any case, counted 41 such; since it was 3x4x5x and the max, that was $30 each time. So my betting was $325 against the house edge, EV approx minus $3.70!! Four $1 bets on 'any craps' just for grins tips the EV to a bit over minus $4. My coin-in $1555 adding the free odds [and possibly more as I might have missed some free odds I bet]; at 1 for 2, the max rate they claim to offer, that would be 777.5 points. Instead I saw 667 added. I can't figure out any formula they might be
using from that. Would have earned only about 162 from non-free odds bets. On the face of it these points are nearly worthless, mind you, if you are just going by what they will promise officially.

They had an odd thing going on with those points that I couldnt figure out. A statement on a little screen that gives you info on your player's card kept saying "200 countdown for next point". Then it would change to "100 countdown for next point" after a while, and then go back again. Made no sense to me as the running total for the points I was earning had nothing to do with that.

When I got the seat I wanted, I was watching the 7s per 100 stats again. It stayed low again; I watched it go from 11 to 13, digging me out of a hole - not that a couple of 7s didnt hit my darkside line bets. I think this means the 7s have been MIA pretty much every time I have gone there, although on my first visit it was just my impression with no facts. Could this conceivably mean dice under a dome might have such a bias? I'm already convinced it is nay, for various reasons, and won't check it out. I think if there was a flaw for dome dice, it would be in the nature of the dice remembering the last roll from how they lay, and developing a pattern. I doubt that too but it least I can picture it. I can see no reason why 7s would be unfavored by any such flaw.

A guy sat next to me and stared gasping, I thought he was losing. Then I hear him say "the field is hot!". I swear he wasn't there 5 minutes and he says "I'm cashing out, I just won $1000"; I saw his ticket and indeed he had. My guess is he was parlaying his bets on the field.

As far as my own luck, Maryland has refused to allow me a session win so far, although my losses have been no biggie. So I guess they are getting the last laugh, loading money onto the player's card but then seeing me lose it and more. But if they will keep doing it, I will keep going back, yessir.