odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
May 22, 2011

The Hook Explored

So as explained in the last post, I am retreating from a vow not to hit the local casinos 'ever', and conceding to myself that under certain circumstances I am not going to be able to resist. So now I am going to have to say I don't frequent the local spots, but might be seen there once in a blue moon. I can still point with pride to never playing local lotteries, slots, keno, and all that stuff.

The newest development is that the wife is now cutting this trip out of town short, not being able to meet up with her brother after all. If I had known that, I wouldnt have even thought much about what I was supposed to do with myself. Something a bit longer would have been fine, I think most of us guys get enough of the 24-7 experience with a spouse and actually my wife confesses the same of me sometimes [such honesty is good for a marriage I think] However, I repeat, the hook is set! I don't see how I can let everyone down now after promising a report (it has nothing to do with scratching the old itch [g])

So how and why did the hook get set?

*For one thing, I am under-budget for my gambling, meaning I set aside so much and this keeps growing. This even though it has been a while since I came out a winner. That says I have a gambling problem: I don't gamble enough!!

*DJ Teddybear is also partly responsible [g]. If you search my other blog posts you will see he said I need to give the locals another chance. I think he is right, plus if nobody else is going to review these places I will.

*My craps game has me going. Last time out I was doing well with setting the dice, so it seemed. This even though I am telling myself the good results mean nothing due to a quite ridiculously small number of trials, without actual data but merely this impression, plus a sober assessment leading always to not really believing it possible, I mean really guy! Yet it eats at me, I want to get back at it, I need to play this thing out to my satisfaction.

*Blackjack is new for me, my first time out in real conditions didn't encourage me much, losing a small amount with it. However, clearly this needs more of a chance, I have no doubt that there should be times I walk away a winner. The local games seem to have decent rules.

*I am still experimenting with the Comp thing. So far not so good, that'll be a future post perhaps.

You never know, I might get busy and see the window of opportunity close, but stay tuned and we shall see if this little jaunt takes place.

Comments

DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear May 24, 2011

Quote:

I don't see how I can let everyone down now after promising a report

This might surprised you, but, we'll get over it.



"Letting us down" would be going, and failing to give a report.



You don't have to answer to anyone here.







Quote:

DJ Teddybear is also partly responsible

HEY!! I made that comment almost a YEAR ago! Don't be blaming me!

odiousgambit
odiousgambit May 25, 2011

>You don't have to answer to anyone here



oh, no, you aren't getting off the hook. If I come away a loser you *all* are getting the blame. Remember how your mother always blamed the kids you were hanging out with for your bad behaviour? bad influence was purely to blame ! [ignoring evidence you were the ringleader?] Well, that's going to be what I have to say too! Unless I win big, then it was my idea. [g]

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
May 16, 2011

The Hook is Set

My wife is going to spend a couple of weeks out of town visiting relatives at the end of the month. It wouldn't be a good time for me to take off from work. Thus it's quite a bit of time to have to myself, so there seems to be no doubt that a day trip to some of the local casino action is in order. I'll do a review I guess, so stay tuned.

I had debated with myself about this; the very local action now available is a bit disappointing in many regards, and too close at hand now perhaps for comfort. I had found I could pretty much leave it alone and had been happy with myself about that. So now I have to theorize as to why I have changed my mind. One thing that changed for sure is my spouse being gone for an extended time. But I think there are some other reasons and I will honestly explore them in a future blog post.

Why gamble at all? I've really been thinking about this. Expanding on something the WoO touched on at some point, clearly the reason to offer a bet is because you think you have the edge, a good bet he likes to say. The reason to accept one is because you believe the person offering it is wrong, and that you have the edge instead by accepting it. A casino offers action because it has the edge, and those who patronize that place are doing so do it for various reasons that seldom meet the above condition. Even if comps totally cover someones action, that to me still doesnt meet the condition. For those who can be sure that they have real player advantage, then they have to deal with not being welcome; I need not go into that here I think? In any case, player advantage or evidently even just being smart about being comped does not seem to be in the near future for me, so truly the only reason for me to go violates all the better reasons and instead is just to play for the fun of possibly enjoying short term favorable luck. Prior to now, for the most part I had reserved that kind of entertainment for vacations, times that I could justify such expense better, and frankly justify where I am finding myself better. So I think I am surprising myself a little bit here. But there is absolutely no doubt I am going to do this. The hook is set! Stay tuned.

Comments

FleaStiff
FleaStiff May 16, 2011

A sports bettor might make a wager based on a difference of opinion but a casino gambler knows the wagers are not fifty:fifty. Its simply Lady Variance may favor me in the short term and I can therefore walk away from the table a winner.

FleaStiff
FleaStiff May 16, 2011

A sports bettor might make a wager based on a difference of opinion but a casino gambler knows the wagers are not fifty:fifty. Its simply Lady Variance may favor me in the short term and I can therefore walk away from the table a winner.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit May 16, 2011

>Lady Variance may favor me in the short term



exactly. If not for that the last reason is gone!

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
May 01, 2011

Thoughts on Tornadoes

After posting this about the Tuscaloosa storm, I started thinking about tornadoes. Growing up in a part of the South where they would definitely hit, I was positively scared of them, and very scared that they would come in the middle of the night. Yet I never saw one or had one pass us very close at all. I've also never seen hail larger than modest sized grapes.

Meteorologists always seem a bit puzzled as to how and why tornadoes form, or at least they have a hard time explaining it. What's usually presented is that a supercell thunderstorm has a rotating wind formation associated with it, and that downdrafts play havoc with this, making funnels hit the ground at times. At this point it seems to become a new creation, as if an initial release of energy compounds upon itself and feeds on itself.

I've never seen this claimed, but I wonder if what is happening has something to do with forced release of energy. When water is formed from vapor, energy is released. In a normal cloud, the temperature has hit the dewpoint to form water; the temperature does not go up, but maintains the dewpoint temperature instead. In other words, water formation just never increases that temperature even though energy is released; this means wind can start up due to the conservation of energy rule, as that energy release must be expressed in some way.

In some instances, energy can be absorbed or released in a forced manner with water changing states. For example adding salt to ice absorbs heat by forcing the change from ice to water without using heat.

In a supercell and perhaps especially in a tornado, some sort of forced change of state from vapor to water is taking place, releasing huge amounts of energy that for whatever reason will not increase air temperature. This gets expressed in wind taking on angular momentum, increasing monumentally I believe in a tornado.

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Apr 25, 2011

More Thoughts on the Greenbrier

More Thoughts on the Greenbrier

When I was first looking into The Greenbrier, there were a lot of internet reviews to be found about it that were frustratingly general about the casino, while I was looking for specifics such as table minimums. And I ran across news articles. But one thing began to stand out: the Greenbrier was not doing so good before the casino was in operation, but since then things have been hunky-dory. Articles pre-casino found plenty to grouse about in general, mostly having to do with the place dreaming up ways to add to your bill [nothing is cheap there, that's for sure anyway]. But sometimes even the food got bad reviews. Post-casino [mid-summer] reviews show a big improvement in sentiment. This is a mystery to me now, since I never saw the casino anywhere near busy, yet in general the casino is getting the credit for this improvement.

I strolled through without playing on arrival Sunday late afternoon, and played afternoons and evenings the next two days. The scene changed between
being clearly 'near empty' to sometimes 'somewhat active', never truly busy. The slots never got much action for sure, those being the potential big money maker of course. You just would think that they would be disappointed there that the place's capacity was just not being met.

I guess there are some explanations, such as my visit not being during a good time to get a good example of how busy it was most other times. There was a Mrs. America pageant going on, note Mrs. America not "Miss" America, and maybe that crowd did not contain a lot of gamblers. I sure saw no contestants in the casino. But somehow the casino itself is doing plenty well for itself, and of course if that is the case then it is helping operations in general. This article is typical.

Comments

Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba Apr 26, 2011

I suspect the addition of the Casino also brought some PR staff familiar with placing favorable, "reviews" in various media channels. It's good business, but not necessarily reality.



If possible, keep track of your throws to see if setting produces any noticable deviation from the expected random results.

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Apr 20, 2011

A couple of days at the Greenbrier

We have decided that we want to take most of our vacations locally now, somewhere we can drive to without killing ourselves from the DC area, instead of putting up with the hassle of flying. If gambling is to be in the picture for that, I knew we might be fitting in Mohegan Sun in CT or Atlantic City in NJ. But the idea of hitting a more local gambling scene was ruled out for various reasons [as mentioned in other blog posts].

This was a bit of a dilemma for me when we planned to head west of DC for vacation. I finally remembered that the old resort in WV that people used to go to to "take the waters" [for 233 years they say] now had some kind of current manifestation that included gambling. So I suggested to my wife we try that, and to my surprise she was thrilled as she had wanted to stay at this 'The Greenbrier' for some time and hadn't mentioned it. She used to work for the hotel industry and likes to stay at the famous hotels. OK! off to a good start here!

It was hard to find good reviews on the casino itself. Most of the reviews I seem to be able to find on *any* casinos off the main track tend to disappoint, often written by someone who doesnt gamble. Worse, they seemingly most often otherwise are written by disgruntled slots players, grousing about the usual beating they are taking. Emailing them didn't help, although that has been a problem for me other places as well. So I was forced to show up not knowing what to expect for sure in the way of minimums and rules. From some of what I was able to glean, seemed like there would be a good chance the minimums would be too high for me, forcing me to just make a few bets and leave. As it turned out, the minimums for the two games I would play, $15 at BJ and $10 at craps, were less than I predicted. I was also predicting 2X odds for craps, but it was indeed 3X4X5X.

I was set to try BJ for the first time in a casino. I sat down where it was only me and the dealer, and I immediately told her how I learned to play only online. I was glad to see she wanted to be helpful and understood what I was saying. As it turned out, there weren't any real surprises; that helped but I was still nervous. She called out the totals on both hands [wasn't sure that was going to happen] and I attempted to follow Basic as best I could including having laminated cards handy. I astounded myself by making several errors, some of which she actually let me renege on [before flipping dealer cards] and some of which went as I called them. Over two days I had two rounds of BJ; the first round I couldnt get BlackJack dealt to me except when dealer had it too it seemed, but I only was down a little over $100. By the second day I think I played almost error free at Basic, got my fair share of BlackJacks, but got clobbered with doubling down, losing about the same amount. Overall it was pretty fun, I have to assume I'll have better luck once in a while.

The new thing I wanted to try at craps was setting the dice before throwing. Now I have set dice before, but was actually faking knowing what to do just to see how people would react. This time I learned a couple of sets, and wanted again just to see how people would react, not believing that it worked. All I did was get some basic info at the WoO site and go with that, no lessons or anything. Lo and Behold, it seemed to be working! The dealers and everybody were remarking on how long my hands were going without the 7-out. The way I was playing, I would usually just be trying to hit one number for myself, with a come bet sometimes setting up another number. I found couldnt hit my numbers before the 7-out too consistently, the other part of that equation, and by no means did I exactly set any records for rolling anyway. But I came away about $100 ahead, making me happy since the BJ earlier had set me back. Next night, I again had everyone remarking how long my hands were getting rolled without the 7; the difficulty of hitting my own numbers continued. As I was tiring and about even and not the roller, I put up some come bets with full odds so that I was going for 3 numbers; this roller 7'd-out, and I bagged it then, down over $100. Overall a lot of fun, but no cigar you might say.

It was definitely fun to set the dice. The crew was definitely immediately on notice to make sure my rolls suited them. The first toss I made didn't hit the back wall; the stickman announced "a soft roll" without actually asking me to toss harder. I knew I was on notice, though, so my thought was to try to have only one die hit the back wall with maybe getting away with neither going that far once in a blue moon. That definitely was accepted OK, both dice hitting the back wall many times anyway. I enjoyed the attention all this got, including the apparent effectiveness of it.

Did I believe I was really skewing the results? In a word, NO. I don't really believe it can be done at all in casino conditions, much less actually making the long sets of rolls I was getting without 7-out really happen like that from dice-setting! However, as opposed to some, I don't feel there is much need to speed the game up, so what the heck. And I will confess to getting the "Pascal's Wager" effect on this. You know, it seemed to work, so what does it hurt either? If someone gave me a rabbit's foot and told me it would improve my luck, and it did, you know I'd be keeping that rabbit's foot. I am definitely that way, forgetting while playing sometimes that it was hooey. As a matter of fact, I started feeling disdain for people who were just tossing the dice with no technique. I definitely kicked myself for making those last big bets of my visit when just such a person indeed went down in flames. For sure, I am hooked now, dice setting is going to be it for me!

up or down longterm now "down $1152"
below budget, $948 balance

 

Comments

rdw4potus
rdw4potus Apr 20, 2011

Nice report! It looks like you managed to stay relatively close to even and have some fun, but I don't see anything about your wife's influence on the bankroll. Should I take it to mean that you'd rather not talk about it?;-)

RonC
RonC Apr 21, 2011

Thanks for the report...I enjoyed reading it.



I don't think the way I do anything necessarily influences the dice in any way...but I set them the same way each time, take a deep breath, toss them with care, and roll an average number of sevens anyway!!

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Apr 21, 2011

>I don't see anything about your wife's influence on the bankroll.



well, the gambling bankroll for us is a separate thing from other expenses incurred on vacation. She doesnt gamble as much, but also now is taking some interest in BJ also, so maybe the next thing I know she'll be a high roller!

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Apr 21, 2011

to clarify, if she loses/wins that does not affect my own payroll. We have joint accounts but this is not one of them!