Posted by Moon900
Aug 19, 2019

Blackjack winning odds

I had a player bet 200 dollars a hand and play approximately 6000 hands. After playing 5k ie 1 million in wager was up 35K. What is the statistical probability of being up this amount or more after 6 thousand hands?


OnceDear Aug 19, 2019

After the event, if it happened, then the probability that it happened is 100%

Sorry, I don't have my maths head on. I may return later when I've looked out the equation... If someone else hasn't got in first.

I think we need to know what his bankroll was as he might have needed to have weathered a few bad streaks.

ChumpChange Aug 20, 2019

Square root of 5000 hands is about 70 hands.

Being up $35,000 at $200 a pop is being ahead 175 hands.

$1 million in wagers x 0.50% = $5,000 expected loss, or 25 units.

I would expect the gambler to be in the (-95 units to +45 units) range, but luck happens.

ChumpChange Aug 21, 2019

3 standard deviations would leave a 0.15% chance of it happening on either the upside or the downside.

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