AZDuffman's Blog

Why do we even try?

So I am sitting at my desk, doing my work and a co-worker starts talking to someone walking by who used to live in Vegas. She mentions a place or something I am curious about and I get into the conversation. The conversation goes towards gaming. And is sadly predictable.

She says how some little old ladies play slots for hours and don't win, then someone makes one pull and empties the machine.

I reply how RNGs work and it doesn't matter.

"But I've seen it happen!"

Then she says you are crazy to play table games.

I reply the HE on Blackjack is about 1-3% and slots are 10%.

"But they can change dealers!"

I reply that is meaningless.

"But I've seen it happen, I USED TO LIVE THERE!"

I just let it go.

Why do we even try?

Was I a bad sport for using smart play?

I don't see what is wrong with doing this, but the reaction of about 1/3 of the room shows why we may be losing our competitive edge as a society in the USA.

We are having a mini-meeting as we do at the end of the day. Sometimes it is a briefing for the latest policy changes, and sometimes it is just a morale-building session since they have to hold them daily but if there is nothing important to do there is time to fill. So we are playing some trivia game, and do the old "I'm thinking of a number" routine to see who goes first. Here is how it goes:


Moderator: "I am thinking of a number between 1 and 10 closest guess wins, team A go first"
Team A: "2"
Moderator: "Not it, team B?"
AZD: "3!"
Moderator: "Number is 7, team B wins?!"

Now, the room was split with the girl on the other team looking at me as if to say, "how could you do that?" but others seeing the wisdom, one saying it was a classic TPIR gameplay. In these situations my strategy, if you need one for something so simple, when guessing first is to say "5" and then you lock the other side into < half the possible choices. If I guess second and they do not say 5, then I take the side with more possibility. It is not that I even cared about it, just that as a member of this site I am the type who tries to take a natural edge.

Am I crazy for thinking they are crazy for their "how could he do that?" reaction?

Joke for today, why you never heard a crank call tape made by math geeks

This actually cane to me while driving to work, they should do a scene of it in "The Big Bang Theory" or a similar show..........





Crank call by "burnouts"



Baretender: "Hello"
Burnout" "Is Al there? Last name Coholic?"
Bartender: "Lemme see, AL COHOLIC, HEY IS THERE AN AL COHOLIC IN HERE?"
Background: "hahahahaha"
Bartender: "Why you little, if I catch you beat you into a coma!"
Burnout: (laughter)


Crank call by "Math Geeks"


Bartender: "Hello?"
Math Geek: "Yes is Al there? Last name "Gorithim?"
Bartender" "Lemme see, AL GORITHIM, HEY EVERYBODY, IS THERE AN AL GORITHIM HERE?"
Background: (silence)
Bartender: Sorry, sir he isn't here
Math Geek: uh, thanks, sorry to bother you

Do we need to teach dice-throwing in college?

I just need to vent on this a little, because I just can't understand what is so diffcult about it.

Working the dice table at a party. 3rd year in a row at this party, fairly high-level of society. Maybe I am dealing well because two people ask me "where do you usually deal?" one of whom was in survalence at the real casino. Maybe they just are making conversation.

Anyhoo, woman at the table at immediate right of 2nd base. Crowd at table is large enough that I can answer questions but cannot give individual tutoring. She has been there long enough to see me pass the dice twice. Dice are at say what would be stickman's immediate left, and 2-3 players between next shooter and her.\

"I would like to throw the dice now!"

Never had that before. Now, an intelligent person would see they are being moved around in an order. Some players had trouble grasping the game, but you should see the dice are moving player to player.

"I have to send them around the table in an order, M'amm.
"Oh."

She stops making line bets until they come to her. Fine, wants to save her chips and be able to throw them. Finally they make their way to her and I explain she has to make a line bet to throw them.

"NO ROLL!" Dice off the table.

Next few rolls I swear she knocked over some stack or another each and every time.

Why can't people manage to throw dice on a table?

Coin flip results and reflections

Here are the final numbers and we have to say bad, bad coins!

Raw result: 118-123-11
P&L: ($2264)

But how bad? Not much worse that you would expect for a coin! Ignoring pushes which are the bookmakers doing, coins were correct .489 of the time. I'll let someone here who is better at advanced math than me (many of you) calculate how many standard deviations away from an true random result that is if they want to spend the time, but if you consider a coin flip should give .500 we were .011 away from that! Put another way, the coins missed by 5 games in a 17 week season, meaning they were off by less than 1/3 of a game a week. In fact, going into week 17 we were at EXACTLY .500! So though we had some volitality, if you want a true 50/50 shot over a season a coin flip would not be a bad way to go.

But we do not want 50/50, we want to win cash! This was not a the coin's season there as the coin was NEVER AHEAD. We came within 1 game of being ahead for some time, but never went positive. Taking a basic -110 vig of the $2264 we lost, three quarters was pure juice. (118 wins * $90 per win = $10620 in wins. $1230 in losses less the wins is $1680 for the book.) To be honest, this suprised even me. I know how juice works and I know how it has to be overcome, but to see it drain you over an entire season like that is amazing. This could be why the local bookie may drive a Buick instead of a Cadillac lest his players realize just what he is making.

So how about in just picking games? We all have had the aggrivation of taking time on the office-pool sheet only to have someone oblivious spend 30 seconds on it and end up winning, and having to be told they won at that! In our pool ncfatcat came in first, congrats, with 139 correct picks. I came in last of the active-til-the-end players with 119 correct (I missed 1-2 thursday games so will not use all totals.) 20 games difference or just 1.2 games per week. Yes, if I used the oppisite side of the coin I would have been at least contending for first! Think about that. I used a season-grid to keep records, but had I said, "Tails this winner" instead of "heads this winner" the coin would have taken at least second place, first if I didn't miss a few games and was right. Moral here is that if you do play an office pick-em game consider using a coin-method and you have as good a chance as anyone.

Back to dealing with the book. We had some issue with changes at our sponsor Bodog now Bovada. First with late lines then with changing quotes to the point that I used the BetUS site. (Sorry, Wiz, I tried to use the sponsor the whole way.) One trend I did see was early lines tend to punish the player with heavy juice (-125 in some cases) and wild lines. Later in the week this settles down and Bodog was a heavier "juice bully" than BetUS seemed to be. If Bovada keeps this policy will remain to be seen. I can say that the coins would have been up at a point in the season had I line-shopped, which I did not do at all.

So lets sum it all up. What did we learn or confirm with all of this?

First, it says that picking every game is in itself a coin-flip! If I just used the oppisite result I'd have near-taken the pool (NOTE: I did not even look at the lines in the pool so results there will not match those here numbers-wise, but I still made the same picks.)

Second, knowing this it confirms *YOU CANNOT WIN IF YOU BET TOO MANY GAMES!* I was off by 5 games over a season. Flip it over and we would still have been down $1700 for the season. Coin was never ahead and nearer the end of the season never got close. The juice, well, juiced the results to death.

Finally, what do you need to do if you do decide to bet every or near every game? Well, a bookie with a juice-rebate would be important. As is line-shopping. Had we line-shopped and had some juice-rebate or/and action bonuses results might have gotten near even. Look for the bonus programs.


Now, it is up to you for all next year. This isn't a lot of work, but it does take a bit of my time. Please state if anyone is still reading and would like to see a sequal next season. As you don't repeat for a sequal, next year would be "coin martingale" where if we were behind at the end of a week, units would double the next and if we were ahead we would bet the base unit again. We would look for how deep in the red you would have to withstand to make it work? It would be a "perfect world" simulation where we would assume unlimited credit before a bunch of bookies and shylocks came looking for you. (maybe even assume juice to the shylock?)