Oasis Poker Card Switch probability is 5.45% NOT 8.4%

Dear Professor Michael Shackleford,

MY RESULT:
According to the following switching below scenarios, on average the player will switch 5.4% of the times NOT 8.4 times as it is stated in your web site.

In Caribbean Stud Poker, I found exactly the same return table as in your web site. I have my own program generating random hands for dealer and player. But, for Oasis, the is a BIG conflict between your calculations and mine. Then I calculated the probability of card switch by hand (using no software) using basic combination calculations (see below). Again, my manual calculations confirmed my software simulation results and conflicted with your Oasis table.

I would really really appreciate if you can check your Oasis table and let me know if I am wrong (I want to be wrong :) )



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Probability calculation of card switches per hand

1-Four to a straight flush and royal flush, even breaking up a pair

2-Four to a flush with no pair.

4 X C(13,4) X 27
_________________ = 0.0297 (This probability also covers scenario 1)

C(52,5)



3-Four to an outside straight with no pair.

9 X 4 X 4 X 4 X 4 X 32
________________________ = 0.0248

C(52,5)
4- Do not switch with two pair or three of a kind.


TOTAL = 5.4%

Thanks for brining this to my attention. I did that three years ago, but as I recall, the 8.4% was based on optimal strategy. The other 3.0% may be other kinds of hands I didn't list in the switching strategy. I'll let you know what I find.

Thanks a lot for your response.

Kindly reminding :

I followed your optimal strategy & card switch list listed on Wizards of Odds' Oasis Poker page for my all calculations and computer program.


Thanks again.

Dear Professor,

Did you get a chance to check it out?.

Thanks