Lotto question

I really should be able to work this out.

There's a lotto game here calle "Melate Retro," I've written a bit about before. Briefly you pick 6 out of 39 numbers. If you hit all six numbers you win the jackpot.

So, according to my efforts at math, the chances of wining are 1 in (39*38*37*36*35*34)/(6*5*4*3*2*1) or one in 3,262,623

But I can't help to think I did something wrong. It seems to me the odds should be a lot worse.

Anyway, the jackpot stands at 31 million pesos (about US $2.3 million). At ten pesos per ticket, is it close to being a fair bet? Or am I seeing things? In other words, is it worth my time and 50 pesos (about US $3.50) to get a pool going with friends and coworkers? Assuming we win without sharing the prize and I get ten people together, my after-tax take would be about US $160 grand.

Thanks!

No, you did it right. Most pick-6 games have (a) larger pools and (b) differentiated numbers to drive up the odds. Mega Millions is 5 of 56 + 1 of 46.

And with lottery, you need to calculate "fair" with regard to expected share of the pot and tax consequences. You're nearly there absent those two considerations, but you're looking at 21M pesos (not 31M) after taxes, according to your after-tax figure. Without sharing but after tax, you're still playing a 35% edge game. Keno has better odds.

I think the math is right. But usually they print the odds on the back of the betting form (i.e. the form you mark up if you're not doing the quick pick). If not, then they should have some type of hand out available, or on their website, that has the odds, as well as the odds of winning the lesser prizes.

As far as your pool goes, my knee-jerk reaction is that the jackpot is way too small.

We recently had quite the frenzy with MegaMillions. That's a $1.00 ticket, and the jackpot STARTS at about $5 million. Office pools generally start when it gets to around $50 million.

Quote: MathExtremist

No, you did it right. Most pick-6 games have (a) larger pools and (b) differentiated numbers to drive up the odds. Mega Millions is 5 of 56 + 1 of 46.

Thanks. The main lotto game is 6 out of 49 or 54 (I've lost track).

Quote:

And with lottery, you need to calculate "fair" with regard to expected share of the pot and tax consequences. You're nearly there absent those two considerations, but you're looking at 21M pesos (not 31M) after taxes, according to your after-tax figure. Without sharing but after tax, you're still playing a 35% edge game. Keno has better odds.

Right. I estimate a top rate of 30%, which is a bit shakey. So I should take that into account. Ok. Is it 31M*1.3 or 31M/.7? The former gives me about 40M and the latter 44M.

It's a good thing it probably won't get there. I don't like catching lotto fever.

Thanks again.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

As far as your pool goes, my knee-jerk reaction is that the jackpot is way too small.

It's a small game, and Mexican lotteries have a smaller pool of people to draw from than multi-state lotteries in the US, with lower incomes to boot. I think the minimum jackpot is 5M pesos.

Hmmmm.....

On the other hand, the odds for MegaMillions are a lot longer too. Something like 175million to 1....

So maybe you are in the right range for a pool.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

So maybe you are in the right range for a pool.

Maybe.

The other thing is that all prizes are paid in full minus a 7% tax retention. There isn't an option for an annuity. So when the jackpot is 31M pesos, if you win you get a check for 28,830,000 pesos on the spot.

The rest of the taxes you're supposed to pay in your next income tax filing (crediting the 7% already retained).

Quote: Nareed

There's a lotto game here calle "Melate Retro," I've written a bit about before. Briefly you pick 6 out of 39 numbers. If you hit all six numbers you win the jackpot.

So, according to my efforts at math, the chances of wining are 1 in (39*38*37*36*35*34)/(6*5*4*3*2*1) or one in 3,262,623

But I can't help to think I did something wrong. It seems to me the odds should be a lot worse.

Anyway, the jackpot stands at 31 million pesos (about US $2.3 million). At ten pesos per ticket, is it close to being a fair bet?

It depends. How many tickets are being sold for each drawing?

Remember, in order to win the entire jackpot, it's not just picking the correct numbers; it's also having everybody else playing the game pick the wrong numbers.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

It depends. How many tickets are being sold for each drawing?

Beats me. I don't even work here ;)

Quote:

Remember, in order to win the entire jackpot, it's not just picking the correct numbers; it's also having everybody else playing the game pick the wrong numbers.

Well, yes. What I know is this a minor game, compared to the other games operated by the lotto agency. So not as many people play it. IN fact, I've guessed the jackpots climb because not many people play it, therefore the chances of anyone winning are smaller.

Don't forget the prizes for the lower levels jackpots, too. Games that don't have a lot of players can roll over for quite some time. I'm thinking of the Ohio Classic Lotto (6/49) which hit $50.4 million after 17 months (over 200 rolls) or Oregon Megabucks (a 6/48 game with a cost per play of 50 cents each) paying out at $22 million last year and rolling over for about 5 months (60+ rolls). Oregon only sells 600,000 tickets on average ($300,000) per draw.

Quote: calwatch

Don't forget the prizes for the lower levels jackpots, too.

The game I'm talking about is a low-level jackpot.

there are other minor games, played more often per week, but they either don't roll over or they're played so little no significant amounts ever accumulate.

FYI, I dind't play it last Saturday, but it did hit. One winner, 31.716 million pesos, so the jackpot barely budged from the 31 million it stood at. At that rate, it will take forever to be a fair bet.

I wouldn't have won if I'd played it with the combinations I always play. So it turns ot not playing it was a pretty good bet ;P