What are the odds?

On Wednesday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch did a story about a man who was celebrating being alive for 100 years, but it was only his 25th birthday because he was born on Feb. 29.

On Thursday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote an update - the man had died on his 100/25th birthday.

So I ask... What are the chances that a random person is born on February 29th, lives exactly 100 years and dies on February 29th. I came up with about 1 in 9-10 billion, meaning he is probably the only person that this has ever happened to.

Thoughts?

The odds of being born on feb 29 ~ 1/1461
The odds of living exactly 100 years? An acturial life table I found estimates that 754 men out of 100,000 live to their 100th year, while 1149 live into their 99th year. Just rounding numbers off, men have about 0.1% chance of living to around 100. [I hope no actuaries are upset by this hand-waving... i think it's about right].

Then you need to die on the right day. I think you just use 1/366, because a man who is born on feb29th and lives ~100 years has a better chance of dying on feb29th than someone who was born in a non-leap year and lives ~100 years.

My estimate: 1 in 500 million.

EDIT: I messed this up a little. Men have a 0.115% chance of living to at least 100, then you should use 1/1461 for dying on the right day.
OR... men die at the age of 100 which 0.04% chance, then use 1/366 for the right day. So my adjusted estimate is between 1.3 and 2 billion

Odds of being born on feb 29th that 100 years later also has feb 29th is 96/146097 . Someone born Feb 29th 2000 will turn 100 on February 28th/March 1 2100 as 2100 is not a leap year.

Quote: miplet

Odds of being born on feb 29th that 100 years later also has feb 29th is 96/146097 . Someone born Feb 29th 2000 will turn 100 on February 28th/March 1 2100 as 2100 is not a leap year.

Only if you do not count his birthday as his birthday.

Quote: buzzpaff

Only if you do not count his birthday as his birthday.

Don't get all "Pirates of Penzance" on us.

On a somewhat unrelated note, Anthony Curtis' site had the following item in the News on Tuesday:

Quote:

Another Leap Day Deal: If you were born on Feb. 29, enjoy a complimentary Leap Year cocktail on the house at FIX restaurant at Bellagio. Must be 21+ (or 5¼+ in Leap Years).

Um...

You'd think that when whoever it was that had to enter a fraction, that they would have stopped, thought about it, and realized that the minimum age is 24 (or 6 leap years).....

Quote: DJTeddyBear

On a somewhat unrelated note, Anthony Curtis' site had the following item in the News on Tuesday:
Um...

You'd think that when whoever it was that had to enter a fraction, that they would have stopped, thought about it, and realized that the minimum age is 24 (or 6 leap years).....

haha maybe there was an added leap year that the world missed in 1991 and those lucky Feb. 29th children actually got a birthday in '92 but then skipped to '96 for their next birthday.

Good catch teddybear.

According to this table published by the CDC, births in the United States are not evenly distributed through the year. More births tend to occur in the Summer (July, August, September) than other times of the year. Since conception would commonly have to occur in June, one of the hottest times of the year, February tends to have the least number of births. Put this all together, and a late February birth in the U.S. is actually comparatively rare.

FYI, years ending divisible by 100 do not contain a leap year EXCEPT years divisible by 400. So, the year 2000 contained a leap year, but the odds of someone being born February 29, 2000 and dying on February 29, 2100 is ZERO because there is no leap year in the year 2100.

Another interesting fact is that the day of the week born is very important! Year 2000 stats show that you are 43% more likely to be born on a weekday than a weekend. Just goes to show you that OB/GYNs like to work weekdays.

Quote: boymimbo

Another interesting fact is that the day of the week born is very important! Year 2000 stats show that you are 43% more likely to be born on a weekday than a weekend. Just goes to show you that OB/GYNs like to work weekdays.

Looks like someone just subtracted 5/7 - 2/7 = 3/7 = 43% to come up with that stat.

There was a story here about a mother born on leap day giving birth on leap day. I thought that was pretty extraordinary with odds of approx one in 2 million I figure...

Let me rephrase this fact.

In the year 2,000 there were 4,058,814 births.

By day of week, the births are:

Sundays: 416,454
Mondays: 585,312
Tuesday: 653,780
Wednesdays: 648,126
Thursday: 647,691
Friday: 637,657
Saturday: 469,794

The odds of you being born on a weekday is 78.2% while being born during the weekend is 21.8%.

This is because of c-sections and inductions which are mostly done during the week.

So, if leap day was on a weekend, the odds of living to 100 and dying on the same day are much lower.

Quote: Lucyjr

Looks like someone just subtracted 5/7 - 2/7 = 3/7 = 43% to come up with that stat.

There was a story here about a mother born on leap day giving birth on leap day. I thought that was pretty extraordinary with odds of approx one in 2 million I figure...

That's different because you can narrow down when you're going to give birth based on ovulation cycles. I suppose you can guarantee the day you die by killing yourself, but that doesn't appear to be the case here.