Casual statistics

I think this web site illustrates the kind of "casual statistics" which used to plague me in management, but also in ordinary life.

The author of the web site wants to demonstrate: The fear of the LORD prolongeth days: but the years of the wicked shall be shortened. Proverbs 10:27

He provides a list of 321 rock stars and presents the following statistics.
Average Age at Death of Included Rock Stars (1) 36.9 Years (1) Computed from the included list.
Average Age at Death of Americans (2) 75.8 Years (2) From "The World Almanac and Book of Facts", 1997, p.973

SUMMARY OF CAUSES OF DEATH
Heart Attack 42
Drug Overdose 40
Misc. Medical 37
Suicide 36
Auto/Cycle Crash 35
Cancer 25
Airplane Crash 22
Unknown 21
Murdered 18
Alcohol 9
Accident 6
Drowned 5
Brain Tumor 4
AIDS 4
Poisoned 3
Leukemia 3
Electrocuted 3
Stroke 3
Fire 3
Choked 2
Total Deaths 321

NOTE: This is EVERY death of a Rock star we've found. This is NOT a "RIGGED" list to produce FALSE numbers, but an HONEST observation.

He goes on to list the names of all 321 musicians.

The question for the readers is "Does this list prove anything statistically?"

Quote: The Big Bang Theory

Sheldon Cooper: I'm going to stay here in Texas, teaching evolution to creationists.
Mary: Watch your language, Sheldon. You know everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Sheldon Cooper: Evolution is not an opinion, it's a fact.
Mary: And that is your opinion.
Sheldon Cooper: [to the others] I forgive you. Let's go back.
[Leaves]
Mary: Don't tell me prayer doesn't work.

The birth of Rock and Roll was sometime in the mid-1940s, depending on how you view history. Therefore, the average age at death of the rock stars who are dead is necessarily less than the average age at death of all dead Americans, many of whom were born long before the 1940s.

In short, it is a flawed comparison. Even if it were a valid one, for example, by comparing the death percentage of rock stars born in 1950 vs. all Americans born in 1950 and causes of death, it still wouldn't prove the website author's contention. It is not true that all Americans exhibit "fear of the LORD", nor is it true that all rock stars are "wicked". So there's a large failure of logic even before you get to the failure of statistics.

Quote: pacomartin

The question for the readers is "Does this list prove anything statistically?"

Yes. That you can prove anythign statistically if you massage the data long enough.

What's the definition of "rock star"? How about a comaprison against people who are more involved with music rather than with the general popualtion, such as groupies, hangers-on, roadies, etc? How about agsint other high-profile, life-in-the-fast-lane type of epople like movie "stars," pro athletes and other assorted celebrities?

Quote: The Big Bang Theory

Sheldon Cooper: I'm going to stay here in Texas, teaching evolution to creationists.
Mary: Watch your language, Sheldon. You know everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Sheldon Cooper: Evolution is not an opinion, it's a fact.
Mary: And that is your opinion.
Sheldon Cooper: [to the others] I forgive you. Let's go back.
[Leaves]
Mary: Don't tell me prayer doesn't work.

I love that bit, but I'm always puzzled as to why Sheldon would deign to teach biology.

There are three kinds of lies...
Lies
Damned lies
And statistics.

Winston Churchill

What has always amazed me, is the high percentage who died in plane crashes.
I doubt if other professions, who fly a lot, have a similar fatality rate.

Flawed study. You lump Police(wo)men and Firefighters into the general population. Of more interest would be how all 3 of those groups compare amongst one another.
And those two examples are off the top of my head, but even Doctors, and Professional Sports Contestants could also be considered "high risk/in the public eye" type of jobs.

The study focuses on one sub-group within a group of high-risk employment: it has no value as promoted.

Quote: victorimmature

What has always amazed me, is the high percentage who died in plane crashes. I doubt if other professions, who fly a lot, have a similar fatality rate.

I know that "casual statistics" are difficult to resist. Take the Kennedy family with 9 children. They lost 2 children to airplane crashes before they reached the age of 30. They lost 2 children to assassins. They lost 1 child to a frontal lobotomy at the age of 23, even though she lived to be age 86.

Then JFK Jr died in an airplane crash.

It's easy to say what are the probability of that happening, but you really don't know how many flight hours each person puts in. Joe Kennedy was a volunteer for a risky military operation when he died. His sister Kathleen was in a private plane. Of course, JFK Jr. was also in a private plane.


Joseph P., Jr. Jul 25, 1915 – Aug 12, 1944
Kathleen A. Feb 20, 1920 – May 13, 1948
John F. May 29, 1917 – Nov 22, 1963
Robert F. Nov 20, 1925 – Jun 6, 1968
Edward M. Feb 22, 1932 - Aug 25, 2009
Rose M. Sep 13, 1918 – Jan 7, 2005
Patricia May 6, 1924 – Sep 17, 2006
Eunice M. Jul 10, 1921 – Aug 11, 2009
Jean A. born Feb 20, 1928

Quote: pacomartin

I know that "casual statistics" are difficult to resist. Take the Kennedy family with 9 children. They lost 2 children to airplane crashes before they reached the age of 30. They lost 2 children to assassins. They lost 1 child to a frontal lobotomy at the age of 23, even though she lived to be age 86.

Then JFK Jr died in an airplane crash.

It's easy to say what are the probability of that happening, but you really don't know how many flight hours each person puts in. Joe Kennedy was a volunteer for a risky military operation when he died. His sister Kathleen was in a private plane. Of course, JFK Jr. was also in a private plane.


Joseph P., Jr. Jul 25, 1915 – Aug 12, 1944
Kathleen A. Feb 20, 1920 – May 13, 1948
John F. May 29, 1917 – Nov 22, 1963
Robert F. Nov 20, 1925 – Jun 6, 1968
Edward M. Feb 22, 1932 - Aug 25, 2009
Rose M. Sep 13, 1918 – Jan 7, 2005
Patricia May 6, 1924 – Sep 17, 2006
Eunice M. Jul 10, 1921 – Aug 11, 2009
Jean A. born Feb 20, 1928

There seems to be an unhealthy link between fame and aviation accidents.

stats

Quote: victorimmature

There seems to be an unhealthy link between fame and aviation accidents.

stats

I think the link is between fame and needing to fly. I doubt that the rate of accidents for famous people is meaningfully higher than for non-famous people when you factor in the frequency of flying. It's all about conditional probability. And the fact that when a non-famous person dies in a plane crash, you generally don't hear about it. But you hear about a famous person when they die in a plane wreck for the same reason you hear about them when they don't die in a plane wreck. Because they're famous.

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: victorimmature

There seems to be an unhealthy link between fame and aviation accidents.

stats

I think the link is between fame and needing to fly. I doubt that the rate of accidents for famous people is meaningfully higher than for non-famous people when you factor in the frequency of flying. It's all about conditional probability. And the fact that when a non-famous person dies in a plane crash, you generally don't hear about it. But you hear about a famous person when they die in a plane wreck for the same reason you hear about them when they don't die in a plane wreck. Because they're famous.

I guess it's impossible to prove.
It could be, as you say, just their prominence that makes it appear that way.
Although from Paco's rock star stats above, the road deaths are only about 50% higher than aviation fatalities.
This is way out of proportion compared to the general stats for these kinds of fatalities.
Less than 2000 deaths, on average, are attributed to significant global plane crashes per year.

Quote: victorimmature

Less than 2000 deaths, on average, are attributed to significant global plane crashes per year.

I think deaths in private planes are much higher.
The Kennedy's have lost three people to airplane accidents. The Windsors who have ruled the United Kingdom for a century have had only two people die from something other than disease or old age. Both died in airplane accidents.

But once again, these are casual statistics. Being rich and famous may make it much more likely that you fly in a small plane. If you took that list, and added all the other people who died in those accidents, I am sure the percentage of famous people is fairly small (and the list is highly selective).

King of the UK's brother died in plane crash in 1942.

Quote: pacomartin

I think deaths in private planes are much higher.
The Kennedy's have lost three people to airplane accidents. The Windsors who have ruled the United Kingdom for a century have had only two people die from something other than disease or old age. Both died in airplane accidents.

But once again, these are casual statistics. Being rich and famous may make it much more likely that you fly in a small plane. If you took that list, and added all the other people who died in those accidents, I am sure the percentage of famous people is fairly small (and the list is highly selective).

King of the UK's brother died in plane crash in 1942.

The ratio of road to aviation fatalities (35/22), for Rock Stars, is still hard to understand.
According to Wiki, in general, it should be about 13-3 for hours travelled & 6-1 for kms travelled.

Ha! I remember that website. Back when I was in junior high/high school and claimed to be a Christian, I would get really steamed at that guy because I loved metal and specifically Christian Metal (yes, it does exist), and his arguments as to why rock music is "evil" are absolutely batshit insane, even to normal, mainstream Christians.

Even though I am now agnostic, I still have a lot of Christian family members and friends and I respect a lot of them for being generally good people. This guy has a screw loose and is not representative. Although he's not nearly as bad as the God Hates Fags people. Eff them.