All Bet odds on craps calculation
February 18th, 2012 at 11:49:52 PM
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I saw this prop bet at the Wynn a year and a half ago. It's described here with odds:
Basically roll all numbers 2-12 (except 7) before a 7 is rolled (not points, just rolling the actual number) and it pays 175:1
When I saw it I thought it would be very difficult to calculate the actual odds and thought it might be a calc limit problem. Can anyone explain
1. the math used for the wizardofodds calculation
2. is that correct
3. if not what is the actual calculation necessary
Thanks!
Basically roll all numbers 2-12 (except 7) before a 7 is rolled (not points, just rolling the actual number) and it pays 175:1
When I saw it I thought it would be very difficult to calculate the actual odds and thought it might be a calc limit problem. Can anyone explain
1. the math used for the wizardofodds calculation
2. is that correct
3. if not what is the actual calculation necessary
Thanks!
February 19th, 2012 at 12:13:37 AM
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The exact math is quite complex.Quote: dudemankid1. the math used for the wizardofodds calculation
2. is that correct
3. if not what is the actual calculation necessary
Thanks!
BruceZ over at 2+2 and another poster offered their solutions.
Craps "All Bet" true odds
I have not seen the Wizard's math on this bet yet.
I am sure he has it.
I have used the inclusion-exclusion principle to solve it, takes a lot of time, and I know the Wizard knows how to use it as he used the PIE in the column:
What is the expected number of rolls of two dice for every total from 2 to 12 to occur at least once?
Ask the Wizard #278
Answer to Q2 is: Yes
February 19th, 2012 at 5:59:27 AM
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I'm not sure, but I think that when it comes to complex craps bets such as the All bets and the Fire Bet, the only way to calculate it is thru simulation.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 19th, 2012 at 6:21:32 AM
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Do you have to make this bet before the come-out roll?
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
February 19th, 2012 at 9:01:30 AM
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Seems that most average folks like me can easily underestimate the talents of gifted math folks.Quote: DJTeddyBearI'm not sure, but I think that when it comes to complex craps bets such as the All bets and the Fire Bet, the only way to calculate it is thru simulation.
There are those that can come up with formulas for just any math question, especially craps.
The All bet can be solved exactly with inclusion-exclusion and even calculus and I would also think with a Markov Chain approach.
The Wizard solved the Fire bet exactly over at WoO
Fire bet
Also, Here is the Fire Bet from:
Stewart N. Ethier
The Doctrine of Chances
Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling
2010
pages 511-512
