MakingBook
MakingBook
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September 19th, 2011 at 9:56:35 AM permalink
What are the odds a coin flip will net 49 heads and 18 tails? Thanks.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 19th, 2011 at 10:02:25 AM permalink
Making Book, be careful or you will be making license plates LOL Just curious, is first time busted still a fine and/ or probation. And second time you might be facing 30 days ?
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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September 19th, 2011 at 10:18:34 AM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

What are the odds a coin flip will net 49 heads and 18 tails? Thanks.



I get about 1 in 15,800. And for the probability of getting at least 49 heads in 67 tosses, I get about 1 in 10,300.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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September 19th, 2011 at 10:46:56 AM permalink
Still trying to figure out how lucky that new customer is?

I have no idea how to calculate it, but, Chester probably didn't factor in the one tie you indicated in your other post. So assuming his number is correct for 49/67, the odds come down a little for 49/67/1.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 19th, 2011 at 10:47:33 AM permalink
Seriously, what possibilities are you facing ?
avargov
avargov
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September 19th, 2011 at 10:50:39 AM permalink
depends on where you get pinched and if the have any action going over state lines, not that i would know anything about it....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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September 19th, 2011 at 11:22:28 AM permalink
In Excel put in any cell =COMBIN(49+18,18)*(1/2)^(49+18).

Answer is 0.0000634590
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
statman
statman
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October 14th, 2011 at 3:34:37 AM permalink
The wizard's answer is correct, as usual, however this is a simple application of the binomial distribution and Excel also has a function for this distribution: BINOMDIST(number, trials, probability, logical). Logical is 1 if you want the cumulative distribution and 0 if you just want the binomial weight.
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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October 14th, 2011 at 3:49:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In Excel put in any cell =COMBIN(49+18,18)*(1/2)^(49+18).

Answer is 0.0000634590



according to your new 'ask the wizard' the odds aren't 50-50!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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