12 numbers once?
Which is the better choice?
Betting on 12 numbers for ONE spin or randomly picking 12 numbers, betting one at a time for 12 spins?
Or, its all the same, no difference. The 12 numbers (1 spin) would be evenly spaced around the wheel and NO, there is not a GOOFY wheel bias. (LMFAO)
I could ask something that I have NEVER added into this in the past. >> Those 12 individual spins/numbers, they are the 12 hottest numbers in the past 350 spins.
Remember, remember......"its all the same", correct?
Ken ((Prediction >> we'll see who posts to this *BUT* offers no answer))
Mathematically, it makes no difference.
Psychologically, it makes a ton of difference.
What kind of gamlber are you? How much do you enjoy Roulette? How much do "give it one more shot?"
Personally, I'd just bet 12 numbers on one spin. But that's because I generally don't play Roulette, and would simply like to get it overwith so I can go play poker or craps.
But that's me.
Now I'm not saying that a visit from a smiling, half-naked female bearing a cold cocktail on a hot afternoon is your primary reason for having trekked to Las Vegas, but its a nice added touch to enjoy. Some people value "time at table" more than "maximum profit". Maybe its because "time at table" can also mean "time away from spouse". I don't know. Still, they do value that concept of "time at table" so a strict mathematical analysis is not truly relevant.
Perhaps mathematically Entire Bankroll times either 35 or 0 once is the same as One Twelfth of Bankroll times either 35 or 0 for twelve times. I don't know. Its just that most people don't fly to Vegas to have one shot at it. Sure, Benny Binion was famous for separating the Talkers from the Doers with his "Your Limit is the size of your next bet". And down in Laughlin they even filmed an Englishman's "life savings wagered at the roulette wheel" (he won), but just how many people do you really think are going to walk out of the casino and say "that's the way it goes" and go on their merry way doing nothing but drink while their wife spends the next two weeks filling up every suitcase Nieman-Marcus ever sold with items from all those absurd specialty shops? Time at table is too important to really do that One Spin stuff.
There is no difference in the expected return, but there is a big difference in the volatility. See, if you bet it all on 12 numbers once, you only have 1 chance of winning and walking away with 36 credits and you have a (38-12)/38 = 68.4% chance of losing it all. If you bet one at a time, you have a ((38-1)/38)^12 = 72.6% chance of losing it all, but you have chances to win more than once as well. Note, you can win 9 or more times, let's just consider it damn near impossible.
| Wins | Win Amount | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 72.61352658% |
| 1 | 36 | 23.550332945% |
| 2 | 72 | 3.500725167% |
| 3 | 108 | 0.315380646% |
| 4 | 144 | 0.019178553% |
| 5 | 180 | 0.000829343% |
| 6 | 216 | 0.00002615% |
| 7 | 252 | 0.000000606% |
| 8 | 288 | 0.00000001% |
| 9 | 324 | 0% |
| 10 | 360 | 0% |
| 11 | 396 | 0% |
| 12 | 432 | 0% |
You're absolutely right. If you bet one at a time, there is the possibility of multiple wins.
However, the original post made no mention of what to do, in either case if there is a win.
Therefore, there's nothing stopping you from betting 12 at once, and continuing to bet should that 12/38 chance hit.
Option 'B', at least we have a CHANCE for more than one hit, correct? It MIGHT turn out to be +70 (gross). Yes its a LONGSHOT but with option 'A', its IMPOSSIBLE.
SIMPLE QUESTION......With the one spin, is it possible to get MORE than +35 (gross)? Yes or no?
Ken
No.Quote: mrjjjSIMPLE QUESTION......With the one spin, is it possible to get MORE than +35 (gross)? Yes or no?
But that was not part of the original question.
Ken
As 'they' say, its ALL THE SAME, makes no difference.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjOkay guys, its that time again. I ask this every 12-18 months and some of the answers are GREAT.
Which is the better choice?
Betting on 12 numbers for ONE spin or randomly picking 12 numbers, betting one at a time for 12 spins?
Every 12-18 months, someone should remind you that you haven't defined what "better" means. Better how? Probability of winning something? Probability of winning more than a certain amount? Variance of outcome? Time at the table? You can't answer your question until you determine what "better" means.
You also haven't said how much you're betting. I'll assume you bet $1 on each of the numbers regardless of whether you bet them all on one spin or in sequence over 12 spins. If you place $1 on 12 different numbers on one spin, you have a 12/38 chance of winning $24 and a 26/38 chance of losing $12. Those are the only two options. If you place $1 on 1 number on 12 sequential spins, you have a distribution of outcomes ranging from a loss of $12 to a win of $420. So if that's all the betting you do, as several others have posted, then the EV is the same for both plays but the variance of the sequential play is much higher. Whether one or the other is "better" is unanswerable until you define what "better" means.
Personally, if I were going to do it at all, I'd do the latter. That's about 18 minutes at a roulette table, hopefully enough time to get a drink.
To you last point, if there is no wheel bias then it doesn't matter which numbers you pick -- "hot" or otherwise. It doesn't even matter if you bet the same number 12 times in a row vs. 12 different numbers on successive spins.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
Quote: mrjjjSIMPLE QUESTION......With the one spin, is it possible to get MORE than +35 (gross)? Yes or no?
No.
But that was not part of the original question.
Don't make assumptions, DJ -- he didn't tell you how much he was betting. I can "gross" more than +35 in any given spin by simply putting $2 on every spot on the table. I'm guaranteed to "gross" +70, which is why that measurement is useless because my net is actually -4.
silly
Quote: mustangsallyTheir software is way smarter than you ever could be. (at least my BF says so)
Your BF must not be as good of a programmer as the one who wrote their software.
"Better" is whatever gives you the maximum number of free drinks. Betting every other spin for the next 24 spins sounds like a winning strategy to me.
Quote: FleaStiffAnd down in Laughlin they even filmed an Englishman's "life savings wagered at the roulette wheel" (he won),
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Revell
He did his bet at the Plaza, Las Vegas.
Quote: kpYour BF must not be as good of a programmer as the one who wrote their software.
"Better" is whatever gives you the maximum number of free drinks. Betting every other spin for the next 24 spins sounds like a winning strategy to me.
Completely agree! Actually, on my last trip to vegas, when I was running out of cash, I focused only on how to get drinks the cheapest. Winning strategy was to observe cocktail waitress coming, insert $10 into slot machine, place drink order, review help screens for 5 minutes, accept drink, tip $1, and cashout $10 from the slot machine. Another time, I actually wagered 1 line, 1 credit on a penny machine for about 5 minutes. It was the most boring 5 minutes ever.
Quote: Mr JjjOn top of that, I could add (I'll let you decide)....for those 12 individual spins, it'll be the top 12 hottest numbers in the past 350 spins COMPARED to one spin of any'ole 12 numbers.
If there's no wheel bias, then why would it matter one bit as to whether or not you chose the top 12 hottest numbers verses the top 12 coldest numbers?
Where's the logic?
Quote: MathExtremistIf you place $1 on 1 number on 12 sequential spins, you have a distribution of outcomes ranging from a loss of $12 to a win of $420.
How about that distribution: Hot and or cold numbers will not change these results.
| HITS | Prob | 1 in | (or more) | HITS | NET | NET % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72.6135% | 1.4 | 1.0000000 | 0 | -$12.00 | -100.00% |
| 1 | 23.5503% | 4.2 | 27.38647% | 1 | $24.00 | 200.00% |
| 2 | 3.5007% | 28.6 | 3.83614% | 2 | $60.00 | 500.00% |
| 3 | 0.3154% | 317.1 | 0.33542% | 3 | $96.00 | 800.00% |
| 4 | 0.0192% | 5,214.2 | 0.02003% | 4 | $132.00 | 1100.00% |
| 5 | 0.0008% | 120,577.4 | 0.00086% | 5 | $168.00 | 1400.00% |
| 6 | 0.0000% | 3,824,026.1 | 0.00003% | 6 | $204.00 | 1700.00% |
| 7 | 0.0000% | 165,070,458.5 | 0.00000% | 7 | $240.00 | 2000.00% |
| 8 | 0.0000% | 9,772,171,140.8 | 0.00000% | 8 | $276.00 | 2300.00% |
| 9 | 0.0000% | 813,533,247,469.4 | 0.00000% | 9 | $312.00 | 2600.00% |
| 10 | 0.0000% | 100,335,767,187,894.0 | 0.00000% | 10 | $348.00 | 2900.00% |
| 11 | 0.0000% | 20,418,328,622,736,500.0 | 0.00000% | 11 | $384.00 | 3200.00% |
| 12 | 0.0000% | 9,065,737,908,494,980,000.0 | 0.00000% | 12 | $420.00 | 3500.00% |
Quote: MathExtremistAs a follow up, the standard deviation of a single bet on 12 inside numbers for $1 each is about $16.73, while for 12 consecutive spins of 1 number each for $1 it's about $19.96. As before, the mean in both cases is equal at -$0.6316. I grant that standard deviation in dollars doesn't intuitively mean much to basically anyone, but there it is.
Standard deviation means EVERYTHING (at least for the player). If you place your bets on the roulette layout, and the croupier would just collect and give you the expected return right back, this game would be boring for the most.
Quote: mrjjjHere has been my take on it for years. With the one spin, the BEST we can do is a win for +35 (gross).
Option 'B', at least we have a CHANCE for more than one hit, correct? It MIGHT turn out to be +70 (gross). Yes its a LONGSHOT but with option 'A', its IMPOSSIBLE.
SIMPLE QUESTION......With the one spin, is it possible to get MORE than +35 (gross)? Yes or no?
Ken
Yes, by placing a number, the splits, the corners, the streets and the rest (full-complete, if I get the terminology right).
And hoping that you hot the number, or at least one edge of it.
Quote: MangoJStandard deviation means EVERYTHING (at least for the player). If you place your bets on the roulette layout, and the croupier would just collect and give you the expected return right back, this game would be boring for the most.
Oh, that's certainly true. I meant that the difference between a standard deviation of $19.96 and $16.73 isn't something that people intuitively understand, even if they understand it academically. I mean, I could tell right away that the variance of mrjjj's 12 independent bets is greater than 12 dependent ones, but I didn't know by how much. In fact, I would have guessed that the variance difference would be greater than it actually turned out to be (from $280 to $398).
Quote: MathExtremistOh, that's certainly true. I meant that the difference between a standard deviation of $19.96 and $16.73 isn't something that people intuitively understand, even if they understand it academically. I mean, I could tell right away that the variance of mrjjj's 12 independent bets is greater than 12 dependent ones, but I didn't know by how much. In fact, I would have guessed that the variance difference would be greater than it actually turned out to be (from $280 to $398).
Okay I get your point. I fully agree, stdev is far from being intuitive in contrast to, say, geometry. Part of the reason is, that stdev is not even intuitive by mathematics. Variance is much more favourable (being a cumulant, as opposed to stdev). However variance is correctly measured in unit^2, and honestly I don't know what 100 $^2 "is" (i.e. if it is rather large or rather small).
I'm not sure of the reasons, but I guess evolution must have forced us in thinking more in geometry (i.e. what is the fastest route away from this huge animal, where is the best place to hide for an attack...). If we were a herd animal, we would be much more knowledgeable about statistics. If the herd of gnus crosses the river simultaneous it has a much higher success (not being eaten by alligators) in contrast to a one-by-one approach.
Quote: MathExtremistEvery 12-18 months, someone should remind you that you haven't defined what "better" means. Better how? Probability of winning something? Probability of winning more than a certain amount? Variance of outcome? Time at the table? You can't answer your question until you determine what "better" means.
You also haven't said how much you're betting. I'll assume you bet $1 on each of the numbers regardless of whether you bet them all on one spin or in sequence over 12 spins. If you place $1 on 12 different numbers on one spin, you have a 12/38 chance of winning $24 and a 26/38 chance of losing $12. Those are the only two options. If you place $1 on 1 number on 12 sequential spins, you have a distribution of outcomes ranging from a loss of $12 to a win of $420. So if that's all the betting you do, as several others have posted, then the EV is the same for both plays but the variance of the sequential play is much higher. Whether one or the other is "better" is unanswerable until you define what "better" means.
Personally, if I were going to do it at all, I'd do the latter. That's about 18 minutes at a roulette table, hopefully enough time to get a drink.
To you last point, if there is no wheel bias then it doesn't matter which numbers you pick -- "hot" or otherwise. It doesn't even matter if you bet the same number 12 times in a row vs. 12 different numbers on successive spins.
Ahhh, playing with the words. (lol) How about this, which one would YOU choose or neither and WHY. How about if I word it like that? How much I'm betting? Its all flat betting. We'll say $1 units. 12 units total for either option. And I see, adding other variables just to f**k up my question. Ok, no comps, no drinks. Its hypothetical, lets leave TIME out of this, thanks for being a sport. NOPE, not betting the same number for 12 spins.
Ken
Quote: mustangsallySo it sounds like you are a believer in the "Hot Hand Fallacy". Bet the trend, bet the streak.
I saw more roulette players last week in Las Vegas betting numbers that were "due" according to the "Gambler's Fallacy". I heard this line a lot from the experienced players offering their advise. "The sleeping numbers will show more often the longer they sleep." or something like that.
Are most roulette players really this misinformed?
Bet the HOT numbers they are hitting....no...bet the COLD numbers they are due!
Sometimes they were right and sometimes they were wrong. Who would have thought.
The Law of Large numbers deals about percentages NOT actual absolute numbers. Even the Law of Averages is false since it still deals with numbers instead of percentages. Take any basic prob and stats class and you will learn the differences right away. Learn what standard deviation is all about and then you can start to see the picture of what an actual distribution can look like.
Question Ken: How would you know the hot numbers for the last 350 spins? 6 or 7 hours at the roulette table? Or even longer.
If you use a bot for online casino, they already know what you are doing.
Their software is way smarter than you ever could be. (at least my BF says so)
You didn't answer the question. Option 'A' or 'B' or neither and why? How would I know the hot numbers? Its hypothetical, I tracked them for 6-7 hours, cool with you?
Also, you guys are MISSING the point. This question has LITTLE (if anything) to do with hot numbers, I only threw that in.
Ken
Quote: KeyserIf there's no wheel bias, then why would it matter one bit as to whether or not you chose the top 12 hottest numbers verses the top 12 coldest numbers?
Where's the logic?
Soooo, your answer is neither, correct? I did not see that in your post.
Ken
Quote: guido111How about that distribution: Hot and or cold numbers will not change these results.
HITS Prob 1 in (or more) HITS NET NET % 0 72.6135% 1.4 1.0000000 0 -$12.00 -100.00% 1 23.5503% 4.2 27.38647% 1 $24.00 200.00% 2 3.5007% 28.6 3.83614% 2 $60.00 500.00% 3 0.3154% 317.1 0.33542% 3 $96.00 800.00% 4 0.0192% 5,214.2 0.02003% 4 $132.00 1100.00% 5 0.0008% 120,577.4 0.00086% 5 $168.00 1400.00% 6 0.0000% 3,824,026.1 0.00003% 6 $204.00 1700.00% 7 0.0000% 165,070,458.5 0.00000% 7 $240.00 2000.00% 8 0.0000% 9,772,171,140.8 0.00000% 8 $276.00 2300.00% 9 0.0000% 813,533,247,469.4 0.00000% 9 $312.00 2600.00% 10 0.0000% 100,335,767,187,894.0 0.00000% 10 $348.00 2900.00% 11 0.0000% 20,418,328,622,736,500.0 0.00000% 11 $384.00 3200.00% 12 0.0000% 9,065,737,908,494,980,000.0 0.00000% 12 $420.00 3500.00%
OMG, I never should of said 'hot' numbers, it has NOTHING to do with the question, oh well. (lol)
Ken
A) One spin (12 numbers), it is IMPOSSIBLE to get more than +35 (gross). Correct?
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is POSSIBLE (but tough) to get MORE than +35 (gross). Correct?
Let me guess, we're gonna disect the word 'more' just to stall. (ROFL)
Ken
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is more POSSIBLE to lose 12 Units. Correct?
Welcome to standard deviation.
ROFL.
Quote: thecesspitA) One spin (12 numbers), it is POSSIBLE to lose 12 units. Correct?
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is more POSSIBLE to lose 12 Units. Correct?
Welcome to standard deviation.
ROFL.
@Thecesspit >>
A) One spin (12 numbers), it is IMPOSSIBLE to get more than +35 (gross). Correct?
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is POSSIBLE (but tough) to get MORE than +35 (gross). Correct?
Do you AGREE with both of these statements? If no, which one is incorrect and why, thanks.
Ken (BTW, yes and yes to both of your questions. Your turn)
Quote: mrjjjAhhh, playing with the words. (lol) How about this, which one would YOU choose or neither and WHY. How about if I word it like that? How much I'm betting? Its all flat betting. We'll say $1 units. 12 units total for either option. And I see, adding other variables just to f**k up my question. Ok, no comps, no drinks. Its hypothetical, lets leave TIME out of this, thanks for being a sport. NOPE, not betting the same number for 12 spins.
Ken
I'm not playing with words. You just didn't use yours precisely enough. It's like asking which is better, $1 on Red or $1 on 1-12 -- you can't answer the question until you know what "better" means.
And I already told you which of your two choices I'd pick and why. If you take this out of a real casino setting and decide I can't get a drink, I won't play at all.
Quote: mrjjj@Thecesspit >>
A) One spin (12 numbers), it is IMPOSSIBLE to get more than +35 (gross). Correct?
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is POSSIBLE (but tough) to get MORE than +35 (gross). Correct?
Do you AGREE with both of these statements? If no, which one is incorrect and why, thanks.
Ken (BTW, yes and yes to both of your questions. Your turn)
Ken, I would say that 'B' is correct and 'A' is incorrect because, with the identical bankroll, you can get more than +35 with 1 spin.
To clarify:-
You give $12 to Player A and Player B and they choose method 'A' and 'B' respectively.
So, player A places $12 on a number. Player A has a chance of winning $420 (just like Player B) - in fact, Player A has a much higher chance of winning $420 than Player B but also has a higher chance of losing $12 overall. In fact, Player A will either lose $12 or win $420 whereas Player A can have any of 13 scenarios applied.
Quote: MathExtremistI'm not playing with words. You just didn't use yours precisely enough. It's like asking which is better, $1 on Red or $1 on 1-12 -- you can't answer the question until you know what "better" means.
And I already told you which of your two choices I'd pick and why. If you take this out of a real casino setting and decide I can't get a drink, I won't play at all.
Ok, forget the DRINKS, just like I already said. You mean to tell me, you will NOT answer my question until we argue for weeks over the term 'better'? You sound like Snowman. (lol) I understand you won't play at all, we got that, sounds great. I've heard of dodging questions before but to NOT answer because of the word 'better', sounds odd. You might not realize it but......you did answer. ;)
Ken
Ken
A) One spin (12 numbers), it is IMPOSSIBLE to get more than +35 (gross). Correct?
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is POSSIBLE (but tough) to get MORE than +35 (gross). Correct?
Do you AGREE with both of these statements? If NO, which one is *INCORRECT* and why, thanks.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjOk, forget the DRINKS, just like I already said. You mean to tell me, you will NOT answer my question until we argue for weeks over the term 'better'? You sound like Snowman. (lol) I understand you won't play at all, we got that, sounds great. I've heard of dodging questions before but to NOT answer because of the word 'better', sounds odd. You might not realize it but......you did answer. ;)
Ken
Oy. Your definition of 'better' does matter. If you were to ask me Friday which was 'better', when I just want to get home and see my kid, I'd say the one roll option because I'd have no interest in playing roulette. Limiting my time exposed to something I don't like would be 'better' to me.
If you were to ask me Sunday, when I want/need some money to go fishin', I'd say it'd be 'better' to bet the 12 seperate rolls as there's an improved chance of winning more money.
So what do you mean by 'better'? Which do you like more, the chance of winning SOME money, or a lesser chance of winning MUCH money. The answer changes based on the definition of 'better'.
Quote: FaceOy. Your definition of 'better' does matter. If you were to ask me Friday which was 'better', when I just want to get home and see my kid, I'd say the one roll option because I'd have no interest in playing roulette. Limiting my time exposed to something I don't like would be 'better' to me.
If you were to ask me Sunday, when I want/need some money to go fishin', I'd say it'd be 'better' to bet the 12 seperate rolls as there's an improved chance of winning more money.
So what do you mean by 'better'? Which do you like more, the chance of winning SOME money, or a lesser chance of winning MUCH money. The answer changes based on the definition of 'better'.
Ok, forget 'better'. Which one would you choose OR neither and WHY?
How about that? 'Better' is off the table. (lol)
Ken
Quote: mrjjj@Thecesspit >>
A) One spin (12 numbers), it is IMPOSSIBLE to get more than +35 (gross). Correct?
B) 12 spins (one number per), it is POSSIBLE (but tough) to get MORE than +35 (gross). Correct?
Do you AGREE with both of these statements? If no, which one is incorrect and why, thanks.
Ken (BTW, yes and yes to both of your questions. Your turn)
Yes, I agree with both of them as long as I understood you correctly.
But what is your point exactly, or are you merely expressing the odds in betting in roulette as some sort of mystical knowledge?
Quote: mrjjjOk, forget 'better'. Which one would you choose OR neither and WHY?
How about that? 'Better' is off the table. (lol)
Ken
Fair enough, and I kind of did. If I got a free play for 12 units, I'd throw them all on one roll because I don't care for roulette. I'd just want to get it over with and possibly have something to show for it. If I got the same free 12 units but had a need or desire to turn it into something bigger, I'd go for the 12 spins.
In case it 'being free' changes things, and for some reason I had to use my own personal money, I'd still pick the one roll because I don't like tossing money away. I'd rather have a higher chance at winning a little than a low chance of winning a lot. I'd only do the 12 spins if I was flat broke and desperate (I have $12 to my name and need airline fair TODAY or I get fired) or some other ridiculously desperate situation.
Quote: thecesspitYes, I agree with both of them as long as I understood you correctly.
But what is your point exactly, or are you merely expressing the odds in betting in roulette as some sort of mystical knowledge?
I'll do this word by word if I have to. So you say YES to both.
BOTH options are only using 12 units.....so 12 units total to lose.
So option 'B', its possible to win (gross) more than option 'A'.
How can that be if *BOTH* options are suppose to have the SAME EXACT chances (use whatever word turns you on) because both options we are using 12 units and one option is NOT suppose to be BETTER than any other option??
There is NO EDGE with roulette methods, correct? (A different example.....3 units on the street 13 14 15 OR one unit on each, the 34 35 36. Which is better? Neither..... 3 is 3 BUT then why is it not 12 is 12? It should make no difference.)
Ken
Quote: Mr. JjjAP is for suckers. Most know this already. The only REAL way to play roulette is with a decent method, a large BR and discipline. I'm sure AP was great in 1923. lol
It appears this board's version of Charlie Sheen is asking us how we feel he should play roulette. As I recall he was telling everyone on the forum that would listen that he had won more than eveyone, and he was bragging to us all about how he had purchased half of an Italian restaurant (cough) with his "winning" system that is described in the above quote.
So my question now is this: Why are you now asking all of us for advice on how to play? Did the restaurant go under? What happened to "winning"? Are you planning a concert tour with your "Goddesses"?
Or do you just feel the need for some attention?
Quote: KeyserIt appears this board's version of Charlie Sheen is asking us how we feel he should play roulette. As I recall he was telling everyone on the forum that would listen that he had won more than we did and he was bragging to us all about how he had purchased half of an Italian restaurant (cough) with his "winning" system that is described in the above quote.
So my question now is this: Why are you now asking all of us for advice on how to play? Did the restaurant go under? What happened to "winning"?
Or are you just in need of some attention?
A) You never answered my question.
B) I'm not asking for advice, nice try coolbreeze.
C) I already posted (at VIP) this January 1st, I'm out at MY restaurant. Jealous? You should be. (lol)
Ken
What is the reason for the question?
Quote: mrjjjI'll do this word by word if I have to. So you say YES to both.
BOTH options are only using 12 units.....so 12 units total to lose.
So option 'B', its possible to win (gross) more than option 'A'.
How can that be if *BOTH* options are suppose to have the SAME EXACT chances (use whatever word turns you on) because both options we are using 12 units and one option is NOT suppose to be BETTER than any other option??
I don't think you use the word "gross" the right way. I think we are more interested in net winnings. Not that it makes much difference in this case, as both times we lose 12 units and win from anything from 0 to 35 (case 1) or 420 (case 2).
I didn't say they had the same chances. I said your analysis was correct. I did say they had the same EV. But EV is not the be all and end all, and those who hunt ev and only ev are looking at just one dimension of gambling.
The difference is, one is a one spin bet which hits 12 out of 38 times. The other is a 12 spin bet that hits 1 in 38 times on each of the 12 spins.
One of them will, as I stated before and you agreed with me, can lose more than the other as well (lose more net).
Quote:
There is NO EDGE with roulette methods, correct? (A different example.....3 units on the street 13 14 15 OR one unit on each, the 34 35 36. Which is better? Neither..... 3 is 3 BUT then why is it not 12 is 12? It should make no difference.)
Ken
Both the 3 units above are one spin bets.
Quote: mrjjjI'll do this word by word if I have to. So you say YES to both.
BOTH options are only using 12 units.....so 12 units total to lose.
So option 'B', its possible to win (gross) more than option 'A'.
Ken
If you have 12 units to play with then I stand by what I said in my earlier post:-
Option A - place 12 units on 1 spin
Option B - place 1 unit on each of 12 spins
Both options return a maximum of +420 units.
Ken, can you tell me why (with 12 units) Option A CANNOT win +420 in the 1 spin?
Quote: SwitchIf you have 12 units to play with then I stand by what I said in my earlier post:-
Option A - place 12 units on 1 spin
Option B - place 1 unit on each of 12 spins
Both options return a maximum of +420 units.
Ken, can you tell me why (with 12 units) Option A CANNOT win +420 in the 1 spin?
The 12 units are all on different numbers on 1 spin. Unless I misunderstand mrjjj.
Quote: thecesspitThe 12 units are all on different numbers on 1 spin. Unless I misunderstand mrjjj.
Thanks Cess.
So, if there were 36 units instead of 12 then the best Player A could do would be to break even using that method of having to bet different numbers?
And this proves ... ??? (drumroll ) ...Ken ?
1.“I have a disease? Bullshit. I cured it with my brain.”
2.“Winning, anyone? Rhymes with winning. Anyone? Yeah, that would be us. Sorry, man, didn’t make the rules. Oops!”
3."I’m tired of pretending I’m not a total bitchin’ rock star from Mars."
4."You can’t process me with a normal brain."
5.“If you borrowed my brain for five seconds, you’d be like, ‘Dude! Can’t handle it, unplug this bastard!’ "It fires in a way that’s maybe not from, uh… this terrestrial realm.”
6."I was banging seven-gram rocks, because that’s how I roll. I have one speed, I have one gear: Go."
7."Can't is the cancer of happening."
8.“Wow. What does that mean? I’m bi-WINNING.”
9.“I am battle-tested bayonets, bro.”
10.“I’m so tired of pretending my life isn’t perfect and bitching and just winning every second and I’m not perfect and bitchin’.”
11.“Look what I’m dealing with, man, I’m dealing with fools and trolls.”
12.“It’s just strafing runs in my underwear before my first cup of coffee, because I don’t have time for these clowns.”
13.“You have the right to kill me, but you do not have the right to judge me. Boom. That’s the whole movie. That’s life.”
14.“I’m sorry man, I got magic and I’ve got poetry in my fingertips, you know, most of the time, and this includes naps."
15."I’m an F-18, bro.”
16.“I’m not Thomas Jefferson. He was a pussy.”
17."I am on a drug, it's called Charlie Sheen. It's not available because if you try it you will die. Your face will melt off and your children will weep over your exploded body."
18."I'm bi-winning."
19."There’s a new sheriff in town. And he has an army of assassins.”
20."The run I was on made Sinatra, Flynn, Jagger, Richards, all of them look like droopy-eyed armless children."
21."The only thing I’m addicted to right now is winning.”
22."I wish him nothing but pain in his silly travels especially if they wind up in my octagon. Clearly I have defeated this earthworm with my words -- imagine what I would have done with my fire breathing fists.
23."[CBS] picked a fight with a warlock."
24."If you’re a part of my family, I will love you violently."
25."Winning."
26."I will not believe that if I do something then I have to follow a certain path because it was written for normal people. People who aren’t special. People who don’t have tiger blood and Adonis DNA."
27."C’mon bro, I won best picture at 20. I wasn’t even trying. I wasn’t even warm."
28."Winning."
29."Bring me Dr. Clown shoes."
Quote: FaceOK, but you got me curious now. Why ARE you asking? Taking a poll? Getting opinions? Gathering info to use for something? Trying to prove a point?
What is the reason for the question?
No poll, I hate polls. What is your choice...'A' or 'B' or its the SAME and WHY?
Ken
Quote: thecesspitI don't think you use the word "gross" the right way. I think we are more interested in net winnings. Not that it makes much difference in this case, as both times we lose 12 units and win from anything from 0 to 35 (case 1) or 420 (case 2).
I didn't say they had the same chances. I said your analysis was correct. I did say they had the same EV. But EV is not the be all and end all, and those who hunt ev and only ev are looking at just one dimension of gambling.
The difference is, one is a one spin bet which hits 12 out of 38 times. The other is a 12 spin bet that hits 1 in 38 times on each of the 12 spins.
One of them will, as I stated before and you agreed with me, can lose more than the other as well (lose more net).
Both the 3 units above are one spin bets.
Its a shame I have to keep breaking this down but I will. (BTW...'gross' is correct)
Lets stick to only ONE question shall we? (lol)
So option 'B', its possible to win (gross) more than option 'A'. >>> YES or NO?
Ken
