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gog
gog
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May 12th, 2011 at 3:16:46 PM permalink
Was talking gambling with some friends and started confusing each other as we were throwing out probabilities. Suppose that for a particular event A has a 60% chance of winning, and B has 40%. What is the correct way to describe this?
pacomartin
pacomartin
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May 12th, 2011 at 6:22:44 PM permalink
Event B has two thirds of the likelihood of Event A.

You certainly wouldn't want to use the first one. If the respective probabilities were 2% and 22% you would want to convey that one event is 11 times as likely as the other event. Saying it had a 20% advantage would be very misleading.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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May 13th, 2011 at 1:07:43 PM permalink
Quote: gog

Was talking gambling with some friends and started confusing each other as we were throwing out probabilities. Suppose that for a particular event A has a 60% chance of winning, and B has 40%. What is the correct way to describe this?


You can't start talking about advantage until you factor in the bet amounts and odds. If you and your friend are betting even-money, where you have A and your friend has B, and assuming that A and B are mutually exclusive, you have a 20% advantage: you win $1 60% of the time, you lose $1 40% of the time, so you end up with an average of +$0.20 per dollar wagered. If your friend makes you lay 3 to win 2 (for example, odds on a don't pass point of 5), then it's a fair wager with no advantage.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
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