Newbies Questions and Ruin Calculator

Wizard and friends,

First questions about payoffs: On a $300 odds bet for a 4 or 10, Does the casino returns my $300 plus pay me another $600 since its a 2:1 bet? Do I have that right?
Do they also pay the come out bet if you win the odds bet?

If I believe the results of the debugging run, then I'm on my way to becoming a gambling zillionare. Here is a summary of the first 2000 rolls. I only placed come out bets of $3 and odds bets of $300. I started with $2,000 and finished at $9,137. (I won't try to pay the mortgage with this.)

Come outs
crap outs 67
natural wins 132
on point 384

This seems to be close the expected ratio of 1:2:6.

Odds Bets
odds losses 220
odds wins 164 (71@1.2, 55@1.5 38@2.0)
odds bye 1174

What are the expected frequencies for odds bets.

The number of odds wins and odds losses is the same as the number of times I was on point, which is helpful.

After I am happy with the way this works, I will set up the calculator to do hundreds of runs for thousands of trial to get a sense of the frequency of payouts.

I'll be happy to share the SAS code.

Thanks

Based on what you posted, you indeed won $7137 with your simulation.

However, based on the expected result of random dice rolls, you should have won 73 of your 6 and 8s (you won 71), 51 of your 5 and 9s (you won 55), and 32 of your 4 and 10s (you won 38).

Because you won 6 more 4s and 10s, that earned you an extra $5,454 (906 x 6). The extra 5 and 9 wins netted you an extra $3,024. The loss of your 2 6s and 8s cost you $1,332. This explains $7,146. Because you had two less natural wins than losses, that cost you $9.

However, your result based on your play is not unusual.

I agree that your results are both very good for you and also not unrealistic. Just keep in mind that this is one of millions of possible outcomes. Some would have you winning even more, most would have you losing or winning less.

One thing to keep in mind is that (from what I've experienced personally and other posters have written on this site) Casino Royale offers 100x odds only for line bets of $5 or more. You can get up to 20x odds for $3 bets.

Based on my post here with 100x odds, you have a very good chance of being up even after 10,000 rolls. For $5 line bets, multiply the EV and STDEV #'s (but not the Win %) by 5.

Quote: hml48

First questions about payoffs: On a $300 odds bet for a 4 or 10, Does the casino returns my $300 plus pay me another $600 since its a 2:1 bet? Do I have that right?

Yes.

Quote: hml48

Do they also pay the come out bet if you win the odds bet?

Yes. So if you bet $3 on the Pass Line and the point becomes 4 and you make a $300 odds bet and win, you will be paid $3 (PL win) + $600 (odds win) + your original $3 (PL bet) + $300 (odds bet) will be returned.

Quote: hml48

If I believe the results of the debugging run, then I'm on my way to becoming a gambling zillionare.

Don't count on it. Free odds give you a better chance to win in the long run, but the casino still has the advantage.

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BTW, a Ruin Calculator calculates the probability that you will run out of money before you reach a specified goal (e.g., set number of trials or win limit) given a starting bankroll. What you have created is a craps simulator, not a ruin calculator.

Quote: boymimbo

Based on what you posted, you indeed won $7137 with your simulation.

However, based on the expected result of random dice rolls, you should have won 73 of your 6 and 8s (you won 71), 51 of your 5 and 9s (you won 55), and 32 of your 4 and 10s (you won 38).

Because you won 6 more 4s and 10s, that earned you an extra $5,454 (906 x 6). The extra 5 and 9 wins netted you an extra $3,024. The loss of your 2 6s and 8s cost you $1,332. This explains $7,146. Because you had two less natural wins than losses, that cost you $9.

However, your result based on your play is not unusual.

Boymimbo,

Thank you for the analysis and comment.
Much appreciated.

Quote: dk

BTW, a Ruin Calculator calculates the probability that you will run out of money before you reach a specified goal (e.g., set number of trials or win limit) given a starting bankroll. What you have created is a craps simulator, not a ruin calculator.

dk,

Thanks for addressing my questions and thanks for your comments about my calculator.

First, let me say after I took the limit off the number of rolls, I got up to a bankroll of over $11,000 plus my original $2,000 but ended up kicked out because at around roll 6000, I had less than the $3 required to make the next come bet. Worse than that, I couldn't find any simple rule to stop me at a good place. As unsettling as this was at simulation, I fear that these two aspects of the game are many times more anxiety producing in real play.

Now that I have confidence in the simulation working correctly and producing realistic results, it is time to define what constitutes a reasonable craps session. Then I can program the session rules, run the simulation for thousands of sessions and have a good understanding of the percent of sessions that will bring ruin, riches or leave me up or down some small amount. That I believe would pass for a risk of ruin calculator.

My current results are completely tied to the fixed sequence of "random" numbers I used for debugging the simulation. In the next phase, I will seed the random number generator with a low order time value so that each session has its own unique and unrepeatable sequence of rolls.

Here is my first stab at defining a session,
Number of rolls - 200 +/- 10%
Starting bankroll $5,000
Target $12,500,
After reaching target $10,000 comes off the table, play continues with remainder until used up or 200 roll limit reached.
Leave on a 7 out if possible.
Tip 3%(?) of winnings.

Any suggestions are welcome.

Thanks.

My only thought is that based on 200 rolls, you will have so much variance that your results won't mean anything.

What you should really be looking at is your risk of ruin based on your original $2,000 and the amounts that you are betting. It's not unheard of, of all, of seven people in a row not making their point -- you would be broke based on that strategy.

Quote: boymimbo

My only thought is that based on 200 rolls, you will have so much variance that your results won't mean anything.

Look I've never played craps.
How long do people stay on there feet rolling these things before they give up in exhaustion regardless of what is happening on the table? I need to program for a realistic session length or my results won't mean anything either.

What are the usual table limits? Do the rules of ruin apply to the house as well? Can the house run out of money?

Thanks
HML

I think you're overdoing it in analysis, having never played the game before.

Most people will put the minimum bet on the pass line and back it up with odds, as much as they can afford. They may also place a 6 or 8. These are the smartest bets on the table.

An estimate of bankroll to prevent ruin at craps is 100x the pass line bet if you are playing at a 3-4-5 table, pass line only, with full odds. That is, a $500 bankroll at a $5 table where you are placing $15, $20, or $25 odds bet.

If you are playing 100x odds, my estimate is that your bankroll to prevent ruin on a $5 table at Casino Royale is about $10,000. If you are coming in with $2,000, I would suggest a $3 table with the full 20x odds allowed.

Most of all, if you want to make money at craps, you are better off just staying at home and playing your simulations. Gambling is entertainment, and no money management or betting system will make you money at craps.

Good luck.

Quote: boymimbo

I think you're overdoing it in analysis, having never played the game before.


Most of all, if you want to make money at craps, you are better off just staying at home and playing your simulations. Gambling is entertainment, and no money management or betting system will make you money at craps.

Good luck.

Agreed. I'm staying home. Even playing with simulations takes up more time than I can afford. Now, when money is tighter for me than its ever been, gambling is not something I can afford.

Your analysis of the 3 dice game was quite sharp.