18 Yos in a Row vs 2x Pig Megas
*yes, the mega (not the grand)
That got me thinking, it that more or less believable than hitting 18 yo 11s in a row (RIP Alan)?
I really don't have any idea what the cycle is on that pig mega. If it matters, one of us was playing $4.50 bet and the other was playing $6.
Quote: prozemaI was supposed to meet my wife for lunch but she got tied up because she hit a mega on rich little piggies. I went to the casino next door and wouldn't you know it, I too hit a pig mega. How crazy is that? Two pig megas before lunch.
*yes, the mega (not the grand)
That got me thinking, it that more or less believable than hitting 18 yo 11s in a row (RIP Alan)?
I really don't have any idea what the cycle is on that pig mega. If it matters, one of us was playing $4.50 bet and the other was playing $6.
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Welcome back to WoV.
I've seen a lady hit a royal and 5 hands later, hit another Royal. (The slot attendant wasn't out of earshot yet)
What does that have to do with the Mega? Nothing. :)
in vp, the odds of hitting the Royal is the same every spin. (Same with rolling a yo)
For the Mega, It's not the probability to hit. It's how close you were to the predetermined hit point.
So it's more the probability of both you *AND* your wife at machines that were close to hitting on the same day.
There are people who do these calcs as a job.
ie: Odds of getting into a car accident while making a left turn but having right turn blinker on
What's the name of this statistics job field? (It's driving me nuts that i can't think of the name for it)
Actuary?
Dog Hand
Quote: DogHand100xOdds,
Actuary?
Dog Hand
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Yes!
Have no clue why I couldn't think of that word.
Google lead me down the path of Series 7.. ugg
I found it with 25 blue, I took it all the way to 46 and popped it with the yellow of course, and unbelievably the mega landed on game 37!
... On a side note, I've lost count of how many times I've hit the grand - but recently I had a very unusual one - the Red Hen was at 17, and I popped it at 18 with the yellow, and the grand approximately $800 landed on game 12 - only 12 free spins and it was a 75 cent game!
Quote: zengrifterI hit my first and only mega at $1.50
I found it with 25 blue, I took it all the way to 46 and popped it with the yellow of course, and unbelievably the mega landed on game 37!
... On a side note, I've lost count of how many times I've hit the grand - but recently I had a very unusual one - the Red Hen was at 17, and I popped it at 18 with the yellow, and the grand approximately $800 landed on game 12 - only 12 free spins and it was a 75 cent game!
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Lifetime, I've hit 3 megas, none on Pigs.
Incidentally, I was slamming buffalo link $5/spin.
Lady next to me sits down and slowly plays $1 spin.
She hits the mega, which meant her $1 spin got the predetermined mega amount at exactly the right time between my fast $5 spins.
Bad luck for me
Quote: ChumpChangeThere's some anecdotal stories of people winning a Royal Flush twice on the same night playing 1 line video poker. That's going up past 1 in 1.6 billion if they were back to back. I don't know what diluting it with a couple thousand extra hands does to those odds; probably brings the odds down to under 1 in a million.
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I've had two royals within 10 hands of each other. Single line, the machines were side-by-side. I've also had 4 royals in about six hours on 5x and 10x lines. My wife has also had a dealt, sequential royal. She also had 17 royals in a 24 hour period ( starting with a dealt 10 line royal). Interestingly, before that run, she went 6 months without a royal - probably 8+ cycles.
That wouldn't have been my guess...
Quote: prozemaSo you guys think a pig mega is like a 1 in 40,000-ish shot similar to a royal?
That wouldn't have been my guess...
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Huh?
That's similar to saying what's the odds of getting a $10k must hit?
There's no odds in hitting the pigs mega.
You must have to get lucky and spin when you're at the predetermined hit point of the mega (just like the Grand).
Quote: jpfromlaQuote: ChumpChangeThere's some anecdotal stories of people winning a Royal Flush twice on the same night playing 1 line video poker. That's going up past 1 in 1.6 billion if they were back to back. I don't know what diluting it with a couple thousand extra hands does to those odds; probably brings the odds down to under 1 in a million.
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I've had two royals within 10 hands of each other. Single line, the machines were side-by-side. I've also had 4 royals in about six hours on 5x and 10x lines. My wife has also had a dealt, sequential royal. She also had 17 royals in a 24 hour period ( starting with a dealt 10 line royal). Interestingly, before that run, she went 6 months without a royal - probably 8+ cycles.
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I've had 2 single line royals in a night, playing a new player cash rebate promotion. I guess the casino got lucky, they didn't owe me the rebate.
Assuming a 40000 royal cycle, let's say you hit one, then 4000 hands later you hit another one, that's 1 in 400000.
Now the 18 yo in a row, that's 1 in 1818, or 3.93464x1022. I don't believe that happened. Even 18 7's in a row would be 1 in 1.0156x1014, which would require every person on earth to play thousands of hands of craps to have an even chance of seeing it once. For the yos, every human on earth could spend their entire lives playing craps and we would probably never see it.
18^5 = 1,889,568
18^6 = 34,012,224
If I was betting Horn High 3 & 11 for $6 ($1, $1, $2, $2), I'd double-up my Horn High bets on each hit in a row, until I got to the 5th bet then round it down to $90 instead of $96 and keep doubling until I hit the table max of $300 Horn High 3 & 11 ($50, $50, $100, $100) at a $500 table at the 7th bet in. I'd get $1,250 - $1,300 per hit at max bet without a tax form. If I was playing at a higher limit table, I'd start with a higher base bet instead of stretching out the progression.
The odds of hitting 7 horn numbers in a row are 6^7 = 279,936. But even hitting 6 in a row will net me $1,200+ so those odds are 6^6 = 46,656.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: prozemaSo you guys think a pig mega is like a 1 in 40,000-ish shot similar to a royal?
That wouldn't have been my guess...
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Huh?
That's similar to saying what's the odds of getting a $10k must hit?
There's no odds in hitting the pigs mega.
You must have to get lucky and spin when you're at the predetermined hit point of the mega (just like the Grand).
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You seem to know a lot about pig megas. What is the range of values that it uses for the predetermined hit point? If I can get an answer to that question I can calculate the rest.
