Newcomb Experiment

I propose we simply conduct our own version of the Newcomb.

Here's how it will work.

First, we'll pick our Newcomb Being from among us. Whoever wants to nominate themselves does so--explain why you make a good choice. Maybe you are a psychology major for example. The Wizard will determine final choice who is the NB. Anyone previously suspended from the forum need not apply.

Once we have our NB, then he and the Wizard will devise a questionnaire for anyone to fill out. The questions are designed to allow a reading.

Whoever chooses(player), sends the questionnaire to the Wizard privately who will forward it anonymously to the NB.

The NB will return his prediction privately to the Wizard.

After the NB makes his predictions, the player will have 24 hours to announce his choice publicly at which time the Wizard will let us know the results.

Be honest in the questionaire--there is no real money involved its just an experiment.

I personally am interested in seeing if a regular human can create a 90% success rate based on reading a person. It might help answer some of our questions about the future changing the past(if 90% then nothing supernatural need be involved.)

Whats everyone think about this?

I predict with 90% accuracy that 90% of the respondents will pick the Wizard to be the Newcomb Being. Now where's that million dollars...

I'm willing to cooperate in any manner necessary. What might be an example question?

As the runner of the forum, Wizard is the one who will receive the private messages so he needs to be the moderator, not the NB.

I'm not an expert at what questions make sense but off the top of my head, income level. A millionaire might be more apt to pick both boxes(the money is not so important--getting the satisfaction of a money award is) while someone who is middle income would go for box a only(they need a million to pay their bills.) Conversely a very poor person might pick both boxes(they need any money even if its only to guarantee a lousy thousand.)

Are bills outstanding, does the person have a high level of current debt, are they religious, devout, etc.

So, we need to come up with questions like that, any Psych majors here to help out?

The type of question/s will certainly be a key issue as some questions can generate answers, seemingly random, but guised to produce non-random results.

A good example is the halving a number question whereby respondents have to answer as quickly as they can (for some reason this works a lot better in the UK than the US ??) People like Derren Brown can use suggestive signals to subliminally implant the answers he desires - this is not mind reading, simply creating a sub-conscious image in someone's imagination.

Going back to the halving the numbers question then you can try it but you MUST answer as soon as you have the answer in your head - the final answer must be given as soon as you have an answer that comes straight to mind. I won't post the final answer until later and then it will be up to the posters to honestly say whether they picked that answer or not.

So, basically, you have to get ready to answer straight away. First question is:-

What is 1/2 of 256 ?

(Continue to keep halving your answers until you reach the lowest possible whole number - DO NOT read further until you have reached the lowest number).

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Now, VERY QUICKLY, think of the first vegetable that comes to mind.

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If this is done correctly then, despite there being numerous vegetables, I would predict a 70% success rate on one particular vegetable being chosen.

I'll post the vegetable later and anyone who tries please post your answer after and be honest :-)

Quote: Wizard

I'm willing to cooperate in any manner necessary. What might be an example question?

Male or Female. Women tend to be more cautious and would be more likely to go for the guaranteed grand.

Age. But I can't decide if an older person would be more risk-averse through experience, or more likely to scoff at a thousand bucks vs a younger person with a lower-paying job or more student loans or whatnot.

If anyone tried the halving number question then 'Carrot' is the vegetable that most people choose.

Quote: Switch

If anyone tried the halving number question then 'Carrot' is the vegetable that most people choose.

Yes! I chose "carrot," too. (Afterwards, I Googled "carrot trick" and found many sites. Here's a good one.)

So did I, carrot it is! Very impressive.

Quote: ChesterDog

Yes! I chose "carrot," too. (Afterwards, I Googled "carrot trick" and found many sites. Here's a good one.)

Interesting article - it's amazing how high the number who said 'carrot' was. I also agree that it does seem to be regional/cultural as I had a far higher % success in the UK (about 90%) compared to trying it in the US.

I also knew the red, hammer one although I only found out about that one a year or so ago - the carrot one I've known for decades.

If the 'carrot' one does fail then you can always use the one that I have had almost 100% success with:-

Tell the person to answer as fast as possible.
You ask "Where do you buy sweets" (hopefully non-US and they will say 'shop', not 'store' Also, insert 'Candy' for US :-))
Now ask them to spell 'Shop'
Then ask them to say 'Shop' 5 times.
Finally, ask them "What do you do at a green light?"

A couple of simple ones you probably know.

ASk people:

What do you put in a toaster?

or

What do cows drink?




The usual answers are Toast, and Milk. Its good if you catch people by surprise.

Quote: Croupier

A couple of simple ones you probably know.

ASk people:

What do you put in a toaster?

or

What do cows drink?




The usual answers are Toast, and Milk. Its good if you catch people by surprise.

I said "people", and "Chablis". Did I get it right?

Quote: mkl654321

I said "people", and "Chablis". Did I get it right?

Yes. Yes you did. Now just pm me your bank details and for just a $1000 processing fee you can have your mystery prize.

Carrot.... add me to the list

Something about this experiment is nagging at me. What is our NB doesn't have anywhere close to 90% success rate? Or, it does for the first 10 people, then starts failing? What does it say other than our NB is randomly making the decision?

Maybe we need many NBs, to increase the chance that one of them has a high rate of success.

Once you have someone with a high rate of success, what could we possibly say about their next guess? Would we have any real evidence it was more than a guess? I am skeptical...