House Edge on Craps Don't pass with a hedge

Can someone help me calculate the combined house for the following craps strategy. 1 unit on don't pass and 2 units hedge lay bet on 4 or 10 until point is established, then lay bet is taken down. I hope I explained it clearly/correctly.

Quote: roumin

Can someone help me calculate the combined house for the following craps strategy. 1 unit on don't pass and 2 units hedge lay bet on 4 or 10 until point is established, then lay bet is taken down. I hope I explained it clearly/correctly.
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I can't help with the calculation but I think is what you are saying.



You bet $100 on the Don't Pass and Lay the #4 for $200 and Lay the #10 for $200.

When a point is established you remove both the Lay #4 and Lay #10.

I get an expected loss of 1/33 of a unit per bet.

I hesitate to use the term "house edge" here because house edge depends on what you count as the bet. This board has gotten into some serious arguments over how the term should be defined (usually with respect to Martingales).
If you use 5 as the bet, the HE is 0.61%.
However, this is deceptive, as you can't lose more than 3 in a single bet.
If you use 3 as the bet, the HE is 1.01%.

$200 lay bet on either 4 or 10 - not both

Quote: roumin

$200 lay bet on either 4 or 10 - not both
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I thought it was both as well.

If it's just laying the 4 (or just the 10), the expected loss is 31/297, or about 0.1044, units.

sorry for the delay. how do you factor in the removal of the lay bet after point is rolled, so remaining bet is a single unit on don't pass