roumin
roumin
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November 24th, 2023 at 1:35:59 PM permalink
Can someone help me calculate the combined house for the following craps strategy. 1 unit on don't pass and 2 units hedge lay bet on 4 or 10 until point is established, then lay bet is taken down. I hope I explained it clearly/correctly.
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
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November 25th, 2023 at 9:41:30 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

Can someone help me calculate the combined house for the following craps strategy. 1 unit on don't pass and 2 units hedge lay bet on 4 or 10 until point is established, then lay bet is taken down. I hope I explained it clearly/correctly.
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I can't help with the calculation but I think is what you are saying.



You bet $100 on the Don't Pass and Lay the #4 for $200 and Lay the #10 for $200.

When a point is established you remove both the Lay #4 and Lay #10.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 25th, 2023 at 10:44:13 AM permalink
I get an expected loss of 1/33 of a unit per bet.

I hesitate to use the term "house edge" here because house edge depends on what you count as the bet. This board has gotten into some serious arguments over how the term should be defined (usually with respect to Martingales).
If you use 5 as the bet, the HE is 0.61%.
However, this is deceptive, as you can't lose more than 3 in a single bet.
If you use 3 as the bet, the HE is 1.01%.
roumin
roumin
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November 25th, 2023 at 1:23:35 PM permalink
$200 lay bet on either 4 or 10 - not both
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 25th, 2023 at 1:55:37 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

$200 lay bet on either 4 or 10 - not both
link to original post


I thought it was both as well.

If it's just laying the 4 (or just the 10), the expected loss is 31/297, or about 0.1044, units.
roumin
roumin
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April 4th, 2024 at 6:59:48 PM permalink
sorry for the delay. how do you factor in the removal of the lay bet after point is rolled, so remaining bet is a single unit on don't pass
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