what pct is profitable

My understanding is if I'm playing basic strategy I have a general expectation (give or take based on house rules) to win 46.46% of the hands excluding pushes, which gives the player somewhere in the neighborhood of winning 95-98% of the amount they have bet which of course is not profitable. So my question is, does anyone know what exact winning pct it would take to become profitable? for example, If by chance you were winning 47.5% of the hands, would that be profitable in the long run if that was possible in the long run. Just curious to know if anyone has that kind of math available.

thanks,
dave

Quote: david1965

My understanding is if I'm playing basic strategy I have a general expectation (give or take based on house rules) to win 46.46% of the hands excluding pushes, which gives the player somewhere in the neighborhood of winning 95-98% of the amount they have bet which of course is not profitable. So my question is, does anyone know what exact winning pct it would take to become profitable? for example, If by chance you were winning 47.5% of the hands, would that be profitable in the long run if that was possible in the long run. Just curious to know if anyone has that kind of math available.

thanks,
dave
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Depends on the rules. Especially regarding is BJ paid 3-2? And can you double on any two cards? Surrender affects as well. Is a surrender half a loss or a full loss in your calculations? How do you calculate split hands? Etc…..

thanks those are good questions.

I factor no surrender, 6 decks, no hole card, dd after any 2, BJ is 3:2.

Not sure what the purpose of your question is…? The goal in playing BJ is to win money, not to win hands.

I’ll give you a few examples….

1. You have a total of 9 and the dealer has a 5 showing. Basic strategy would have you double down to maximize the overall expected money won given that starting position. If your goal was to just win the hand as often as possible, you would just hit, just in case you drew a 2 you could hit again

2. Same concept with soft ace double downs.

3. Splits as well.


So…. what is the purpose of your question? If we knew that maybe the guys better at math than me could help out!

Quote: david1965

thanks those are good questions.

I factor no surrender, 6 decks, no hole card, dd after any 2, BJ is 3:2.
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The house edge is only 0.36-0.58% depending on whether the dealer stands on soft 17. Your post suggests a house edge of 2-5%. You are way off on your basic assumptions.

If you could magically increase your win probability by 0.25%, this should turn the game profitable if the rules are favorable.

The Wizard has loads of win probabilities on his BJ page. https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/

A good scavenger can pick up a few offensive splits and occasionally a double for less. The outstanding ones will pawn off enough defensive splits to turn the game in their favor. It's an often overlooked weapon.

Yup youre right i was off on my assumption of 95-98%. Most online casinos are advertising 99.5%. So .25% sounds about right. That's kind of what I had hoped for.
I'd love to hear from someone with the exact math but this helps.

thank you!

If I play 400 hands I might win 42% of my hands including pushes, and that can be very variable but getting less than that usually means I'm losing and getting more usually means I'm winning the session. It could vary from 33% to 50% and for sure the losses & wins at those edges are something else. Sometimes it pays to just take the session win at the shuffle of a new shoe and cash out.