REAL Odds in BlackJack

Newbie to forum, sorry if this is already posted, I couldn't find it...

Everywhere I search perfect basic strategy gives the house an edge of about 0.5% on each hand. +/-

I've run millions of simulations betting the exact same amount every hand and use 2 different formulas to calculate house edge, I am always returning around 2.5% +/-

So - Do I have a bug in my simulations or is 0.5% house edge for BJ the biggest lie in Vegas???


DL

Quote: djl314

Newbie to forum, sorry if this is already posted, I couldn't find it...

Everywhere I search perfect basic strategy gives the house an edge of about 0.5% on each hand. +/-

I've run millions of simulations betting the exact same amount every hand and use 2 different formulas to calculate house edge, I am always returning around 2.5% +/-

So - Do I have a bug in my simulations or is 0.5% house edge for BJ the biggest lie in Vegas???


DL
link to original post

Welcome to the forum.

How are you simulating?

I think a lot of other people have managed to get simulations to return around a 0.5% edge.

:) There you go... That's it :) lol

simplicity sake I just run # EDGE/GPH = PL / HP

Quote: djl314

:) There you go... That's it :) lol

simplicity sake I just run # EDGE/GPH = PL / HP
link to original post

I don't think that sounds like the same kind of simulation others are running.

Quote: djl314

Newbie to forum, sorry if this is already posted, I couldn't find it...

Everywhere I search perfect basic strategy gives the house an edge of about 0.5% on each hand. +/-

I've run millions of simulations betting the exact same amount every hand and use 2 different formulas to calculate house edge, I am always returning around 2.5% +/-

So - Do I have a bug in my simulations or is 0.5% house edge for BJ the biggest lie in Vegas???


DL
link to original post

Hi and welcome,

The house edge and the appropriate basic strategy for Blackjack both depend on the number of decks and the exact rules of the game being simulated. Get either wrong and your calculation or simulation will give the wrong value for edge.

Edge is typically in the range 0.4% to 1% and you can get a rough idea of what difference rule changes make from here...
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/
You'll see that with 6:5 payout and a few other tweaks, house edge can be >2%

Without seeing the code for your simulator, I'll say with some confidence, that you have a bug in your code.

Splits? DD? BJ?

Developing accurate simulation software takes a lot of time and you have to do a lot of checking. This can be achieved by putting in traces and writing out all the details for every hand and how the shoe looks. Similarly you might need to zap the deck with various scenarios to ensure the correct logic is being followed. Another trick is to count up lots of things and see if patterns don't agree with expectations. As a simple example you know how many Blackjacks there should be.

Another issue is to ensure your random number generator and shuffling works. This is another area to test.

Best of luck.