Pair square blackjack

I recently watched mr Shackleford video on this where he does the math but he used 10 to 1 for unsuited and 15 to 1 for suited. My casino offers 10 to 1 for unsuited pairs but for suited pairs it’s 25 to 1. This is on a double deck game.

I’m no math wizard at all. But I tried to extrapolate his math over to this game and it seems it could be positive for player. However I know the casino never offers a wager positive for the player lol.

I’d like to know the expectation of this side bet where suited pairs pay 25 to 1 rather than 15 to 1. And unsuited pairs pay the same as his example of 10 to 1.

Thanks!

ev = -10.68%, still favor to the casino.

Quote: ssho88

ev = -10.68%, still favor to the casino.

betbrett,

To elaborate on ssho88's correct but terse answer...

Say your first card is the 6 of Clubs. Now that leaves 103 unknown cards in a double deck game. One of them is the other 6 of Clubs (worth 25); six of them are the other 6's (two each in Spades, Hearts, and Diamonds), worth 10; and the remaining 96 (103 - 1 - 6 = 96) are losers (worth -1). Thus, your EV can be calculated as follows:

EV = 25*(1/103) + 10*(6/103) - 1*(96/103) = (25 + 60 - 96)/103 = -11/103 = -0.1068... = -10.68%.

Naturally, above calculation is exactly the same for any first card you receive.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thanks for the reply.

In Mr Shacklefords analysis of the pair square he arrived at that same EV for 10/1 unsuited and 15/1 suited.

In the example I gave the suited pair pays 25/1. Therefore the EV can’t be the same tor both of these games.

Here is where I get the info given for the 15/1 game as analyzed by Mr Shackleford
YouTube . Com /3XDTmnldND4

Quote: betbrett

Thanks for the reply.

In Mr Shacklefords analysis of the pair square he arrived at that same EV for 10/1 unsuited and 15/1 suited.

In the example I gave the suited pair pays 25/1. Therefore the EV can’t be the same tor both of these games.

Here is where I get the info given for the 15/1 game as analyzed by Mr Shackleford
YouTube . Com /3XDTmnldND4

On the WOO page on Pair Square the Wizard shows:

For 15/10 and 6 decks the EV = - 0.106109

For 25/10 and 2 decks the EV = - 0.106796

Those are NOT inconsistent. The lower number of decks makes getting both a pair and a suited pair less probable and offsets the increase in payout for the suited pair.

Thank you. That was the clarification I was looking for.

Cheers!