betbrett
betbrett
Joined: Aug 17, 2021
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August 17th, 2021 at 10:32:01 PM permalink
I recently watched mr Shackleford video on this where he does the math but he used 10 to 1 for unsuited and 15 to 1 for suited. My casino offers 10 to 1 for unsuited pairs but for suited pairs itís 25 to 1. This is on a double deck game.

Iím no math wizard at all. But I tried to extrapolate his math over to this game and it seems it could be positive for player. However I know the casino never offers a wager positive for the player lol.

Iíd like to know the expectation of this side bet where suited pairs pay 25 to 1 rather than 15 to 1. And unsuited pairs pay the same as his example of 10 to 1.

Thanks!
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
gordonm888
August 17th, 2021 at 11:46:32 PM permalink
ev = -10.68%, still favor to the casino.
DogHand
DogHand
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August 18th, 2021 at 3:14:25 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

ev = -10.68%, still favor to the casino.



betbrett,

To elaborate on ssho88's correct but terse answer...

Say your first card is the 6 of Clubs. Now that leaves 103 unknown cards in a double deck game. One of them is the other 6 of Clubs (worth 25); six of them are the other 6's (two each in Spades, Hearts, and Diamonds), worth 10; and the remaining 96 (103 - 1 - 6 = 96) are losers (worth -1). Thus, your EV can be calculated as follows:

EV = 25*(1/103) + 10*(6/103) - 1*(96/103) = (25 + 60 - 96)/103 = -11/103 = -0.1068... = -10.68%.

Naturally, above calculation is exactly the same for any first card you receive.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
betbrett
betbrett
Joined: Aug 17, 2021
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August 18th, 2021 at 7:49:54 AM permalink
Thanks for the reply.

In Mr Shacklefords analysis of the pair square he arrived at that same EV for 10/1 unsuited and 15/1 suited.

In the example I gave the suited pair pays 25/1. Therefore the EV canít be the same tor both of these games.

Here is where I get the info given for the 15/1 game as analyzed by Mr Shackleford
YouTube . Com /3XDTmnldND4
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888 
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August 18th, 2021 at 10:50:51 AM permalink
Quote: betbrett

Thanks for the reply.

In Mr Shacklefords analysis of the pair square he arrived at that same EV for 10/1 unsuited and 15/1 suited.

In the example I gave the suited pair pays 25/1. Therefore the EV canít be the same tor both of these games.

Here is where I get the info given for the 15/1 game as analyzed by Mr Shackleford
YouTube . Com /3XDTmnldND4



On the WOO page on Pair Square the Wizard shows:

For 15/10 and 6 decks the EV = - 0.106109

For 25/10 and 2 decks the EV = - 0.106796

Those are NOT inconsistent. The lower number of decks makes getting both a pair and a suited pair less probable and offsets the increase in payout for the suited pair.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
betbrett
betbrett
Joined: Aug 17, 2021
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August 18th, 2021 at 11:43:02 AM permalink
Thank you. That was the clarification I was looking for.

Cheers!

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