Progressive Jackpot Win Odds

Hi there,

I'm getting super curious about progressive jackpot win odds. If I double my stake, am I twice as likely to win?

Some remarks:
- I know this is likely to vary by game
- In almost all game rules, the closest they get to an explanation is 'chances of winning correlates positively with bet size'
- I'm mostly interesting in video *slots* rather than video poker where there may be a fixed qualifying stake

Any and all industry experience welcome!

Thanks,

Becky

Doubling your stake does not double your chances but doubling the number of bets made will double your chance.

I do think setting it on the highest Denom is typically well worth it. IT of course depends on the game, what game are you referring to?

Ahh, so this is where I start to get confused.

How do I reconcile that statement with the game rules that state 'win chance correlates positively with bet size'?

And since posting my question I found this forum post of yours: /forum/gambling/slots/34870-progressive-jackpot-odds-when-the-denomination-doesnt-affect-the-jp-size/#post774028

Am I correct in thinking that some progressives double your win chance with double stake, and some don't? Are there any rules of thumb for classifying those?

Quote: ExpertAP

I do think setting it on the highest Denom is typically well worth it. IT of course depends on the game, what game are you referring to?

'Luck o The Jackpot' for instance states: "The larger the wager is at each game, the higher the chances of winning the jackpot will be"

That was seen on Coral Games section

Quote: beccysurbo

Am I correct in thinking that some progressives double your win chance with double stake, and some don't? Are there any rules of thumb for classifying those?

technically you are correct. Some machines offer different paytables based on the bet size. Those of us that design these would refer to that as a separate game. When the paytable changes the odds often change.

On many video slots when you bet the minimum number of coins you may be playing an 85% game, when betting more than the minimum the payback may be going up. Generally it isn't much more than a 4% difference.

Quote: ExpertAP

I do think setting it on the highest Denom is typically well worth it. IT of course depends on the game, what game are you referring to?

Disagree. Unless the game specifically changes the pay table for better odds on higher bets, otherwise the odds are relative and all you're doing is upping your variance, a lot.

Quote: beccysurbo

'Luck o The Jackpot' for instance states: "The larger the wager is at each game, the higher the chances of winning the jackpot will be"

That was seen on Coral Games section

All of the games say "For better odds to win the progressive, bet more!" But it's semantics, not actually better odds. Essential to move the meter is like $2, let's say... When you bet $4, you get 2 meter movements per spin... so you'll hit it in shorter time (what they're calling "better odds"), but you're betting the same amount as two $2 spins moving the meter twice (aka the odds don't ever change, they're just lying to players to get them to bet more). All you're doing by betting more is upping your variance.

For those with a small bankroll, sadly playing on the min denom is usually the best as that will get you more spins, thus a larger sample size, thus less variance. So if you are playing it as a positive expectation, you'll help yourself get to the long run faster and have a smoother ride, but you'll also spend a lot more time on the machine.

Alright, so

- I don't care about variance
- All I'm asking is if double stake means double chance of winning
- I'm mostly referring to *online* but not necessarily exclusively

Put in other words, if I spin 2 x $1, is that the same chance of winning the progressive as 1 x $2?

The odds of hitting the jackpot doesn't change on that particular game, however, the more you bet the quicker you'll hit the must hit/mystery jackpot on average.
Think of it in a different way, if you have to bet $1 and your goal is to roll a six with one die in order to win or you could add an additional independent die for an additional $1.

Let's Pretend the jackpot comes up one in every 100,000 spins betting $1 at a time, if you were to double your bet to $2 it will now come up on average every 50,000 spins. So let's say on average you lose 10% of your money that would be $10,000 after you hit that jackpot betting $1 at a time on average. If you're betting $2 at a time over 50000 spins you will have lost that same $10,000 on average when you hit the jackpot. The only thing that really changes is the time it takes in order to hit the jackpot.

Make sure you read what Romes said carefully and understand how mystery/must hit Progressive machines work. If you understand how they work, then you will have the answer to your question.

The semantics of 'do the odds of the game change when I change my stake?' have confused you, it looks like.

But you seem to say that if a $1 bet wins the jackpot 1 in 100,000 then a $2 bet wins the jackpot 1 in 50,000 spins.
So in that case double stake means double the chance of winning.

And, as a final point of clarification, I'm not asking about how much I win or lose in the long run. All I'm asking is whether my chances of winning scale directly proportionally to stake size.

Quote: beccysurbo

The semantics of 'do the odds of the game change when I change my stake?' have confused you, it looks like.

But you seem to say that if a $1 bet wins the jackpot 1 in 100,000 then a $2 bet wins the jackpot 1 in 50,000 spins.
So in that case double stake means double the chance of winning.

And, as a final point of clarification, I'm not asking about how much I win or lose in the long run. All I'm asking is whether my chances of winning scale directly proportionally to stake size.

What's confusing is why you asked the question if you already have the answer and it's clearly stated in the description? Yes you have a better CHANCE if hitting the progressive on that particular slot game. The reason for a more detailed explanation was not for your benefit but for others who may confuse this particular type of slot game with other types. There have been similar questions like this where people were truly confused especially since there are games out there like DRich explained, including other variations of s slot machines at work differently.

Don't get angry, man :) Girls can be smarter sometimes.

So, you think double stake means double the probability of winning the jackpot.

Are there progressive jackpots that we're aware of, where this is not the case (excluding video poker)?

Quote: beccysurbo

Are there progressive jackpots that we're aware of, where this is not the case (excluding video poker)?

On most games increasing the wager does not change the odds of hitting the jackpot.

Hmm ok. So you and AxelWolf disagree on this point?

What about the post of yours that I referenced in which you suggested the odds do change?

If the odds are fixed regardless on stake, how can the total RTP of the game be true, in a pool with varying stakes?

Quote: beccysurbo

Hmm ok. So you and AxelWolf disagree on this point?

What about the post of yours that I referenced in which you suggested the odds do change?

If the odds are fixed regardless on stake, how can the total RTP of the game be true, in a pool with varying stakes?

You may have a reading comprehension issue."Most games do not act like you stated, some do"

YOU may have an issue. Axel is suggesting most games work the opposite way to the way you are suggesting...

Quote: beccysurbo

YOU may have an issue. Axel is suggesting most games work the opposite way to the way you are suggesting...

I would tend to believe the person that makes slot machines for a living.

Ok, that is a fair point, without knowing Axel's expertise.

So I'm wasting my money if I play for a jackpot with anything other than min stake usually?

In cases where the rules state the win chances correlate positively with stake size, do you think that would be a direct 1-to-1 scaling or something else?

Quote: beccysurbo

Ok, that is a fair point, without knowing Axel's expertise.

So I'm wasting my money if I play for a jackpot with anything other than min stake usually?

In cases where the rules state the win chances correlate positively with stake size, do you think that would be a direct 1-to-1 scaling or something else?

Axel is a very smart man and a professional gambler so I tend to believe most of what he says.

Quote: beccysurbo

Don't get angry, man :) Girls can be smarter sometimes.

So, you think double stake means double the probability of winning the jackpot.

Are there progressive jackpots that we're aware of, where this is not the case (excluding video poker)?

You keep confusing (A) doubling the stakes means increasing the chance with (B) doubling the stakes means doubling the chances.

A and B are not the same statement.

Quote: unJon

You keep confusing (A) doubling the stakes means increasing the chance with (B) doubling the stakes means doubling the chances.

A and B are not the same statement.

I know that. I'm trying to get opinions.

I want to hear peoples' views on how the win chances varying with stake

Quote: beccysurbo

I know that. I'm trying to get opinions.

I want to hear peoples' views on how the win chances varying with stake

So you are looking for opinions not facts? Plenty of facts were given here. I'm sure plenty of theories and opinions will follow.

Quote: beccysurbo

I know that. I'm trying to get opinions.

I want to hear peoples' views on how the win chances varying with stake

It depends on the game, which is basically what both DRich and Axel have said, and if there’s any disagreement at all, it’s just over which case is more likely. Doesn’t seem to me that they fundamentally disagree and Axel’s answer (apologies if I’m wrong) seems to mostly look at must-hits.

Suppose you were talking about a must-hit machine. Some must-hit machines, when a given jackpot is triggered, pick a new amount at which the jackpot will be triggered.

If the amount selected is $497.55, and suppose the meter is at $489.55, then the probability of hitting the jackpot is 0 regardless of your bet...unless there is something that can also just randomly trigger it.

Suppose that it’s at $497.53 and the meter moves $0.01 for every $5 bet. Now the probability of hitting it would be 0 with a $5 bet, but 100% with a $10 bet.

In any case, with a machine like that, it’s not twice as likely necessarily, but you’ll get there in half the time, therefore half the spins, which makes it TECHNICALLY twice as likely on a per spin basis.

—

Looking at other types of progressives that can be hit on multiple bet levels, it depends on what event triggers the progressive and the frequency of said event. Suppose it’s collecting a particular scatter symbol...it would be very easy with a sample size of 1,000 spins or so to determine whether or not that symbol is coming up twice as frequently—which (more or less) it would need to be for the jackpot to be twice as likely.

I say more-or-less because you could technically significantly adjust the frequency on one (or more) individual reels and still end up with an event 2x as likely overall, but again, this could be determined with even a reasonable sample size of spins.

For an example that is not a matter of opinion, you can look at Keno games. Many Keno games you can start hitting the jackpot at a $0.50 bet, but the max bet is more than that. With Keno, max betting as opposed to $.50 wouldn’t change the probability of hitting the jackpot at all whatsoever if it’s strictly based on getting a certain amount of numbers out of x numbers on the initial draw, say 9/10, 8/8, 7/7...whatever.

So, absent the paytable changing somewhere else (usually not the case) max betting actually means a worse RTP because the jackpot is less relative to the bet amount.

Some slot games also operate basically the same way. One example of which is an eight-line based game, such as Bell Fever. I can’t say the probability of hitting the jackpot doesn’t increase with higher bets at all, but it certainly doesn’t increase in a directly proportional way to the bet amount. Most advantageous situations on those are because someone was max betting and drove the meter up, so now you can snap it off at a minimum bet.

Quote: beccysurbo

Ahh, so this is where I start to get confused.

How do I reconcile that statement with the game rules that state 'win chance correlates positively with bet size'?

And since posting my question I found this forum post of yours: /forum/gambling/slots/34870-progressive-jackpot-odds-when-the-denomination-doesnt-affect-the-jp-size/#post774028

Am I correct in thinking that some progressives double your win chance with double stake, and some don't? Are there any rules of thumb for classifying those?

“Correlates positively,” is different than, “Correlates perfectly,” or, “Correlates proportionally.”

Quote: beccysurbo

...Put in other words, if I spin 2 x $1, is that the same chance of winning the progressive as 1 x $2?

Yes.

A few years ago I was playing a Flaming Sevens game and lined up three flaming sevens for a $500 win on a $1.35 bet. A week or so later I lined up the same three flaming sevens on a .45 cent wager and got nothing. I called for service, thinking the machine was broken, but while waiting, I read the paytable. It turned out bets of .45 only qualified certain winning payoffs and you had to be betting $1.35 or more to win the Flaming Sevens feature. While the information was right in front of me, it really soured me on the game.

Quote: DRich

Axel is a very smart man and a professional gambler so I tend to believe most of what he says.

That's a nice compliment, especially coming from a guy like you.

I'm a bit confused since I agree with you on this and everything else you have ever said about slots, or gambling in general for that matter. Can someone point out where our statements conflicted, perhaps I just didn't explain my position correctly.

It all seems fairly simple to me. It's as if the OP has a hidden agenda.

Quote: Mission146

It depends on the game, which is basically what both DRich and Axel have said, and if there’s any disagreement at all, it’s just over which case is more likely. Doesn’t seem to me that they fundamentally disagree and Axel’s answer (apologies if I’m wrong) seems to mostly look at must-hits.

Suppose you were talking about a must-hit machine. Some must-hit machines, when a given jackpot is triggered, pick a new amount at which the jackpot will be triggered.

If the amount selected is $497.55, and suppose the meter is at $489.55, then the probability of hitting the jackpot is 0 regardless of your bet...unless there is something that can also just randomly trigger it.

Suppose that it’s at $497.53 and the meter moves $0.01 for every $5 bet. Now the probability of hitting it would be 0 with a $5 bet, but 100% with a $10 bet.

In any case, with a machine like that, it’s not twice as likely necessarily, but you’ll get there in half the time, therefore half the spins, which makes it TECHNICALLY twice as likely on a per spin basis.

—

Looking at other types of progressives that can be hit on multiple bet levels, it depends on what event triggers the progressive and the frequency of said event. Suppose it’s collecting a particular scatter symbol...it would be very easy with a sample size of 1,000 spins or so to determine whether or not that symbol is coming up twice as frequently—which (more or less) it would need to be for the jackpot to be twice as likely.

I say more-or-less because you could technically significantly adjust the frequency on one (or more) individual reels and still end up with an event 2x as likely overall, but again, this could be determined with even a reasonable sample size of spins.

For an example that is not a matter of opinion, you can look at Keno games. Many Keno games you can start hitting the jackpot at a $0.50 bet, but the max bet is more than that. With Keno, max betting as opposed to $.50 wouldn’t change the probability of hitting the jackpot at all whatsoever if it’s strictly based on getting a certain amount of numbers out of x numbers on the initial draw, say 9/10, 8/8, 7/7...whatever.

So, absent the paytable changing somewhere else (usually not the case) max betting actually means a worse RTP because the jackpot is less relative to the bet amount.

Some slot games also operate basically the same way. One example of which is an eight-line based game, such as Bell Fever. I can’t say the probability of hitting the jackpot doesn’t increase with higher bets at all, but it certainly doesn’t increase in a directly proportional way to the bet amount. Most advantageous situations on those are because someone was max betting and drove the meter up, so now you can snap it off at a minimum bet.

You found your next article.

Quote: beccysurbo

Hi there,

I'm getting super curious about progressive jackpot win odds. If I double my stake, am I twice as likely to win?

Are there that many machines with progressives where you can win the progressive by betting any amount other than the maximum?

There's an Urban Legend about someone who lost a Megabucks jackpot because he let his girlfriend play the machine while he stepped away for a minute, and she was only putting in $1 per pull. In fact, there is one documented instance where somebody did lose a progressive because he didn't put in the max bet.

I remember posting here a few years ago about machines where the "last" credit didn't increase the payouts for the non-jackpot values, but only activated the progressive. To be honest, I'm not sure if any of those exist any more.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Are there that many machines with progressives where you can win the progressive by betting any amount other than the maximum?

It used to be more common on older games. (IMO) This is aside from whether they were any good for AP.

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm a bit confused since I agree with you on this and everything else you have ever said about slots, or gambling in general for that matter. Can someone point out where our statements conflicted, perhaps I just didn't explain my position correctly.

I didn't think they conflicted either but Ididn't see any point in arguing with the OP.

Thanks all.

I'm looking online at these progressives so I'm not sure about how common this staking issue is in retail casino machines.

Mission, I'm interested in this approach of tailoring the view of the impact of stake based on the paytables and pay lines. Are there sheets available for these online games?

My fear, though, is that for games that trigger jackpots inside bonus rounds, there's no way of knowing whether your stake has made a difference.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Are there that many machines with progressives where you can win the progressive by betting any amount other than the maximum?

There's an Urban Legend about someone who lost a Megabucks jackpot because he let his girlfriend play the machine while he stepped away for a minute, and she was only putting in $1 per pull. In fact, there is one documented instance where somebody did lose a progressive because he didn't put in the max bet.

I remember posting here a few years ago about machines where the "last" credit didn't increase the payouts for the non-jackpot values, but only activated the progressive. To be honest, I'm not sure if any of those exist any more.

Yes. I discussed one in the post immediately before this.

To the last bit, I don't believe I've ever seen any like that, but it wouldn't surprise me. That's definitely an interesting concept, do you remember how much the Max Bet was as opposed to the second highest bet?

Quote: beccysurbo

Thanks all.

I'm looking online at these progressives so I'm not sure about how common this staking issue is in retail casino machines.

Mission, I'm interested in this approach of tailoring the view of the impact of stake based on the paytables and pay lines. Are there sheets available for these online games?

My fear, though, is that for games that trigger jackpots inside bonus rounds, there's no way of knowing whether your stake has made a difference.

I don't know, if you can name some of the games (PM would be fine, if you wish) then maybe I can look around for you. I don't think that most PAR Sheets are available even for online games.

I agree with the last part of what you said, especially if the trigger is not directly related to the reels...or is related to some other aspect of the bonus (such as a wheel spin) that doesn't strictly have to conform to the probabilities that it would appear to be. Absent a tremendous sample size of spins (or a PAR Sheet flat telling you) there's really no real way to know how likely the event is on one bet v. another...if at all.

The only thing I will say is that I tend to believe that a higher bet makes a difference in the probability if they say it does, but there's nothing stopping it from being a minute difference.

Quote: Mission146

The only thing I will say is that I tend to believe that a higher bet makes a difference in the probability if they say it does, but there's nothing stopping it from being a minute difference.

As far as I can tell slots in the high limit rooms still give a better return in general.