beccysurbo
beccysurbo
Joined: Sep 18, 2020
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September 18th, 2020 at 1:10:22 PM permalink
Hi there,

I'm getting super curious about progressive jackpot win odds. If I double my stake, am I twice as likely to win?

Some remarks:
- I know this is likely to vary by game
- In almost all game rules, the closest they get to an explanation is 'chances of winning correlates positively with bet size'
- I'm mostly interesting in video *slots* rather than video poker where there may be a fixed qualifying stake

Any and all industry experience welcome!

Thanks,

Becky
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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September 18th, 2020 at 1:45:17 PM permalink
Doubling your stake does not double your chances but doubling the number of bets made will double your chance.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
ExpertAP
ExpertAP
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September 18th, 2020 at 2:36:32 PM permalink
I do think setting it on the highest Denom is typically well worth it. IT of course depends on the game, what game are you referring to?
beccysurbo
beccysurbo
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September 18th, 2020 at 2:41:13 PM permalink
Ahh, so this is where I start to get confused.

How do I reconcile that statement with the game rules that state 'win chance correlates positively with bet size'?

And since posting my question I found this forum post of yours: /forum/gambling/slots/34870-progressive-jackpot-odds-when-the-denomination-doesnt-affect-the-jp-size/#post774028

Am I correct in thinking that some progressives double your win chance with double stake, and some don't? Are there any rules of thumb for classifying those?
beccysurbo
beccysurbo
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September 18th, 2020 at 2:48:03 PM permalink
Quote: ExpertAP

I do think setting it on the highest Denom is typically well worth it. IT of course depends on the game, what game are you referring to?



'Luck o The Jackpot' for instance states: "The larger the wager is at each game, the higher the chances of winning the jackpot will be"

That was seen on Coral Games section
DRich
DRich
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September 18th, 2020 at 5:56:20 PM permalink
Quote: beccysurbo



Am I correct in thinking that some progressives double your win chance with double stake, and some don't? Are there any rules of thumb for classifying those?



technically you are correct. Some machines offer different paytables based on the bet size. Those of us that design these would refer to that as a separate game. When the paytable changes the odds often change.

On many video slots when you bet the minimum number of coins you may be playing an 85% game, when betting more than the minimum the payback may be going up. Generally it isn't much more than a 4% difference.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Romes
Romes
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September 18th, 2020 at 9:34:15 PM permalink
Quote: ExpertAP

I do think setting it on the highest Denom is typically well worth it. IT of course depends on the game, what game are you referring to?

Disagree. Unless the game specifically changes the pay table for better odds on higher bets, otherwise the odds are relative and all you're doing is upping your variance, a lot.

Quote: beccysurbo

'Luck o The Jackpot' for instance states: "The larger the wager is at each game, the higher the chances of winning the jackpot will be"

That was seen on Coral Games section

All of the games say "For better odds to win the progressive, bet more!" But it's semantics, not actually better odds. Essential to move the meter is like $2, let's say... When you bet $4, you get 2 meter movements per spin... so you'll hit it in shorter time (what they're calling "better odds"), but you're betting the same amount as two $2 spins moving the meter twice (aka the odds don't ever change, they're just lying to players to get them to bet more). All you're doing by betting more is upping your variance.

For those with a small bankroll, sadly playing on the min denom is usually the best as that will get you more spins, thus a larger sample size, thus less variance. So if you are playing it as a positive expectation, you'll help yourself get to the long run faster and have a smoother ride, but you'll also spend a lot more time on the machine.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
beccysurbo
beccysurbo
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September 19th, 2020 at 3:35:20 AM permalink
Alright, so

- I don't care about variance
- All I'm asking is if double stake means double chance of winning
- I'm mostly referring to *online* but not necessarily exclusively

Put in other words, if I spin 2 x $1, is that the same chance of winning the progressive as 1 x $2?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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September 19th, 2020 at 5:01:46 AM permalink
The odds of hitting the jackpot doesn't change on that particular game, however, the more you bet the quicker you'll hit the must hit/mystery jackpot on average.
Think of it in a different way, if you have to bet $1 and your goal is to roll a six with one die in order to win or you could add an additional independent die for an additional $1.

Let's Pretend the jackpot comes up one in every 100,000 spins betting $1 at a time, if you were to double your bet to $2 it will now come up on average every 50,000 spins. So let's say on average you lose 10% of your money that would be $10,000 after you hit that jackpot betting $1 at a time on average. If you're betting $2 at a time over 50000 spins you will have lost that same $10,000 on average when you hit the jackpot. The only thing that really changes is the time it takes in order to hit the jackpot.

Make sure you read what Romes said carefully and understand how mystery/must hit Progressive machines work. If you understand how they work, then you will have the answer to your question.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beccysurbo
beccysurbo
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September 19th, 2020 at 5:06:55 AM permalink
The semantics of 'do the odds of the game change when I change my stake?' have confused you, it looks like.

But you seem to say that if a $1 bet wins the jackpot 1 in 100,000 then a $2 bet wins the jackpot 1 in 50,000 spins.
So in that case double stake means double the chance of winning.

And, as a final point of clarification, I'm not asking about how much I win or lose in the long run. All I'm asking is whether my chances of winning scale directly proportionally to stake size.

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