Thread Rating:

Poll

21 votes (45.65%)
14 votes (30.43%)
6 votes (13.04%)
3 votes (6.52%)
12 votes (26.08%)
3 votes (6.52%)
6 votes (13.04%)
5 votes (10.86%)
12 votes (26.08%)
10 votes (21.73%)

46 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 14th, 2021 at 1:34:02 PM permalink
There are only 10 kinds of people -- Those who get binary arithmetic and those who don't.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 14th, 2021 at 2:20:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

There are only 10 kinds of people -- Those who get binary arithmetic and those who don't.

Good one. I guess this joke would only work in written form.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 14, 2021
It’s all about making that GTA
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 14th, 2021 at 6:15:10 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

It's all about the base!


Quote: DogHand

With thanks to Charlie for the hint, I get...

220 = 24 in base 3. Each number is 24 in based decreasing from 12 to 2.


Dog Hand


Correct!!
----------------------------------------





Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 15th, 2021 at 8:13:01 AM permalink
It's toughie Tuesday. Let's go for a drive...



A 10kg box is placed on the back of a lorry. As the lorry accelerates uniformly from 0 to 36 kmh^-1 in 5 seconds, the box begins to slide. The lorry then continues to drive at a constant speed and the box comes to rest.

If the box slides 2 meters in total, and assuming g=9.8 ms^-2, find µ, the coefficient of friction between the box and the surface.


[For simplicity, assume throughout that the coefficient of friction remains constant and that the dynamic friction (once the box begins sliding) is the same as the static (limiting) friction.]
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
aceside
aceside
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 591
Joined: May 14, 2021
June 15th, 2021 at 8:57:28 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

It's toughie Tuesday. Let's go for a drive...



A 10kg box is placed on the back of a lorry. As the lorry accelerates uniformly from 0 to 36 kmh^-1 in 5 seconds, the box begins to slide. The lorry then continues to drive at a constant speed and the box comes to rest.

If the box slides 2 meters in total, and assuming g=9.8 ms^-2, find µ, the coefficient of friction between the box and the surface.


[For simplicity, assume throughout that the coefficient of friction remains constant and that the dynamic friction (once the box begins sliding) is the same as the static (limiting) friction.]


I used high school physics and found 0.1877551.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 9:21:05 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

As the lorry accelerates uniformly from 0 to 36 kmh^-1 in 5 seconds,



What does kmh^-1 mean?

Do you mean the rate of acceleration is constant, the lorry starts from a standing position and reaches 35 kilometers per hour in five seconds?

Also, what is a lorry?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 15th, 2021 at 9:32:01 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What does kmh^-1 mean?

Do you mean the rate of acceleration is constant, the lorry starts from a standing position and reaches 35 kilometers per hour in five seconds?

Also, what is a lorry?


Yes, and British for "truck".
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 15th, 2021 at 9:47:26 AM permalink
In Crapless Craps, what is the chance of winning the Fire Bet with all ten points?
It’s all about making that GTA
aceside
aceside
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 591
Joined: May 14, 2021
Thanked by
Gialmere
June 15th, 2021 at 10:23:02 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Yes, and British for "truck".


I haven’t got a correct confirmation, so I recalculated it. My new result is mu=0.18896447.
Last edited by: aceside on Jun 15, 2021
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2146
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 11:13:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

In Crapless Craps, what is the chance of winning the Fire Bet with all ten points?



spreadsheet
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 15th, 2021 at 11:37:34 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

spreadsheet

I saw there was an old thread on this. I'm looking for a calculated (not simulated) answer expressed as a rational number

I disagree with your answer
It’s all about making that GTA
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 1:10:17 PM permalink

I get 1 in 344,842,585.

I'll show my method if I'm correct.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jun 28, 2021
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 15th, 2021 at 1:10:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I'm looking for a calculated (not simulated) answer expressed as a rational number



I get:
125,085,337,830,737
,750,040,946,884,515,600,828,826,106,122,701,544,847,430,450
,629,046,605,089,708,493,923,039,495,721,017,570,418,222,323
,016,473,845,293,309,175,319,694,738,875,002,802,771,338,500
,366,299,331,953,447,220,689,670,202,784,565,639,415,289,332
,084,779,481,597,229,081,746,080,364,803,215,921,066,911,536
,541,381,291,811,341,713,825,167,788,888,871,197,475,636,470
,784,515,810,574,611,990,369,837,114,575,201,669,878,148,297
/
43,134,751,192,953,914,210,993
,943,271,802,543,777,980,988,349,922,891,546,230,519,480,217
,557,626,817,255,231,365,456,478,947,627,840,676,555,835,923
,392,957,024,113,969,618,568,826,138,354,283,301,839,972,359
,049,974,938,603,820,014,108,197,177,751,482,827,734,201,244
,571,353,546,913,323,627,624,872,502,898,073,424,297,340,815
,406,874,056,759,075,587,522,737,125,509,897,688,175,170,811
,478,174,333,289,594,416,341,915,851,631,174,536,884,518,568
(which is about 1 / 344,842,584.6)

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 1:29:22 PM permalink
Let the record show I beat Don by 13 seconds.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 15th, 2021 at 1:59:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let the record show I beat Don by 13 seconds.


But you didn't express it as a rational number, as requested
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 2:06:04 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

But you didn't express it as a rational number, as requested



Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 15th, 2021 at 2:31:32 PM permalink
First off, the answer provided by Miplet is correct for the digits provided. But from what I can tell his answer was simulated. Miplet, is this not the case?

Today I have to declare ThatDonGuy as winner since he was the first to provide the answer in rational format as requested. What a close race

I would be interested in seeing everyone's method...I'm guessing the Wizard integrated a Poisson formula like I did.
It’s all about making that GTA
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 15th, 2021 at 2:46:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I would be interested in seeing everyone's method...I'm guessing the Wizard integrated a Poisson formula like I did.


As usual, I used a brute force Markov chain.
Let a2, a3, ..., a12 = 0 if that point has not been made yet, and 1 if it has.
Let P(a2, a3, ..., a12) be the probability of winning from that state; P(1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) = 1.
P(a2, a3, ..., a12) = 1/30 x 1/7 x P(1, a3, a4, ..., a12) + 1/15 x 1/4 x P(a2, 1, a4, ..., a12) + 1/10 x 1/3 x P(a2, a3, 1, a5, ..., a12) + ... + 1/30 x 1/7 x P(a2, a3, ..., a11, 1)
The two fractions are the probability that this is the point (1/30 for 2 and 12, 2/30 = 1/15 for 3 and 11, 3/30 = 1/10 for 4 and 10, 4/30 = 2/15 for 5 and 9, and 5/30 = 1/6 for 6 and 8) and the probability that, if it is the point, the point is made (1/7 for 2 and 12, 2/8 = 1/4 for 3 and 11, 3/9 = 1/3 for 4 and 10, 4/10 = 2/5 for 5 and 9, and 5/11 for 6 and 8)
Work backwards from (1,1,1,...,1,1,0) to (0,0,0,...,0,0,0), which is the solution.
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2146
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 2:49:56 PM permalink
My spreadsheet answer was calculated, not simulated, using google sheets. I’m sure rounding errors occurred when add all fractions from the 1024 different states you can end up on.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 3:14:53 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I would be interested in seeing everyone's method...I'm guessing the Wizard integrated a Poisson formula like I did.



Yes, of course. You taught me and won't let me forget the method.

Here is the integral in text form: exp(-7303x/13860)*(1-exp(-x/252))^2*(1-exp(-x/72))^2*(1-exp(-x/36))^2*(1-exp(-2x/45))^2*(1-exp(-25x/396))^2*(7303/13860)

Here it is in proper notation:



Here is the screen with the answer. One has to scroll way over to the right to see all the digits.



I hope this proves I at least had the right answer and just didn't report it properly.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jun 28, 2021
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
teliot
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 3:43:24 PM permalink
Okay ... new puzzle. A sum of consecutive squares equaling a sum of the following successive consecutive squares.

3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2.

10^2 + 11^2 + 12^2 = 13^2 + 14^2

21^2 + 22^2 + 23^2 + 24^2 = 25^2 + 26^2 + 27^2

18^2 + 19^2 + 20^2 + ... + 34^2 = 35^2 + 36^2 + 37^2 + ... + 42^2

What's the longest one you can find?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 15th, 2021 at 4:03:46 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

I haven’t got a correct confirmation, so I recalculated it. My new result is mu=0.18896447.


Correct!!

Very good.
---------------------------------------

Did you hear about the Star Wars fan who ate a truck?

They call him the The Mandalorryin.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 15th, 2021 at 5:22:32 PM permalink
Let the record show that Miplet did already have the correct answer, which he had calculated on a large spreadsheet. Today we learned some new methods and also we got to the exact rational answer for the first time.

I owe all three of you a beer:

Miplet: First to solve
ThatDonGuy: First to post a rational answer
Wizard: In my opinion, he provided the most elegant/efficient solution...expressed as a single line formula

Incidentally, my method uses the same concept as the Wizard's but it's not exactly the same. I took 1 minus the integral over all time of:

(1-((1-1/e^(t/210))*(1-1/e^(t/60))*(1-1/e^(t/30))*(1-1/e^(4t/75))*(1-1/e^(5t/66)))^2)*1/e^(7303t/11550)*7303/11550 dt
It’s all about making that GTA
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
Thanked by
teliot
June 15th, 2021 at 6:25:21 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Okay ... new puzzle. A sum of consecutive squares equaling a sum of the following successive consecutive squares.

3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2.

10^2 + 11^2 + 12^2 = 13^2 + 14^2

21^2 + 22^2 + 23^2 + 24^2 = 25^2 + 26^2 + 27^2

18^2 + 19^2 + 20^2 + ... + 34^2 = 35^2 + 36^2 + 37^2 + ... + 42^2

What's the longest one you can find?



Let there be A numbers on the left, and B on the right
(N - (A - 1))^2 + (N - (A - 2))^2 + ... + (N - 1)^2 + N^2 = (N + 1)^2 + (N + 2)^2 + ... + (N + B)^2
The left is the sum of 1^2 through N^2 - the sum of 1^2 through (N - A)^2
The right is the sum of 1^2 through (N + B)^2 - the sum of 1^2 through N^2
1^2 + 2^2 + ... + N^2 = N (N + 1) (2N + 1) / 6 for all positive integers N
1/6 N (N + 1) (2N + 1) - 1/6 (N - A) (N - A + 1) (2 (N - A) + 1) = 1/6 (N + B) (N + B + 1) (2 (N + B) + 1) - 1/6 N (N + 1) (2N + 1)
N (N + 1) (2N + 1) - (N - A) (N - A + 1) (2 (N - A) + 1) = (N + B) (N + B + 1) (2 (N + B) + 1) - N (N + 1) (2N + 1)

The largest sum I have found so far has 6195 terms:
385^2 + 386^2 + ... + 5222^2 = 5223^2 + 5224^2 + ... + 6579^2 = 47,461,421,035

ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 15th, 2021 at 6:26:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Incidentally, my method uses the same concept as the Wizard's but it's not exactly the same. I took 1 minus the integral over all time of:

(1-((1-1/e^(t/210))*(1-1/e^(t/60))*(1-1/e^(t/30))*(1-1/e^(4t/75))*(1-1/e^(5t/66)))^2)*1/e^(7303t/11550)*7303/11550 dt


I understand the first five terms, but where does 7303 / 11550 come from?
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 15th, 2021 at 7:06:16 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I understand the first five terms, but where does 7303 / 11550 come from?

It's the probability of sevening out. Sum the first five terms, multiply by 2, then add 7303/11550 and it equals 1.

The formula says: while at least one point has not been won and no there have been no seven-outs, what's the chance that the next decision is a seven out?
It’s all about making that GTA
teliot
teliot
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 7:16:15 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


Let there be A numbers on the left, and B on the right
(N - (A - 1))^2 + (N - (A - 2))^2 + ... + (N - 1)^2 + N^2 = (N + 1)^2 + (N + 2)^2 + ... + (N + B)^2
The left is the sum of 1^2 through N^2 - the sum of 1^2 through (N - A)^2
The right is the sum of 1^2 through (N + B)^2 - the sum of 1^2 through N^2
1^2 + 2^2 + ... + N^2 = N (N + 1) (2N + 1) / 6 for all positive integers N
1/6 N (N + 1) (2N + 1) - 1/6 (N - A) (N - A + 1) (2 (N - A) + 1) = 1/6 (N + B) (N + B + 1) (2 (N + B) + 1) - 1/6 N (N + 1) (2N + 1)
N (N + 1) (2N + 1) - (N - A) (N - A + 1) (2 (N - A) + 1) = (N + B) (N + B + 1) (2 (N + B) + 1) - N (N + 1) (2N + 1)

The largest sum I have found so far has 6195 terms:
385^2 + 386^2 + ... + 5222^2 = 5223^2 + 5224^2 + ... + 6579^2 = 47,461,421,035

Clever! And beats my largest by (ehem) a few terms.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
Thanked by
teliot
June 15th, 2021 at 7:27:34 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: ThatDonGuy



The largest sum I have found so far has 6195 terms:
385^2 + 386^2 + ... + 5222^2 = 5223^2 + 5224^2 + ... + 6579^2 = 47,461,421,035

Clever! And beats my largest by (ehem) a few terms.



8964 terms: 2931^2 + ... + 9487^2 = 9488^2 + ... + 11,894^2 = 276,276,145,995

Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Jun 15, 2021
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 15th, 2021 at 8:32:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I owe all three of you a beer:



Very gracious of you! I proudly accept.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
aceside
aceside
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 591
Joined: May 14, 2021
June 16th, 2021 at 8:01:24 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


Let there be A numbers on the left, and B on the right
(N - (A - 1))^2 + (N - (A - 2))^2 + ... + (N - 1)^2 + N^2 = (N + 1)^2 + (N + 2)^2 + ... + (N + B)^2
The left is the sum of 1^2 through N^2 - the sum of 1^2 through (N - A)^2
The right is the sum of 1^2 through (N + B)^2 - the sum of 1^2 through N^2
1^2 + 2^2 + ... + N^2 = N (N + 1) (2N + 1) / 6 for all positive integers N
1/6 N (N + 1) (2N + 1) - 1/6 (N - A) (N - A + 1) (2 (N - A) + 1) = 1/6 (N + B) (N + B + 1) (2 (N + B) + 1) - 1/6 N (N + 1) (2N + 1)
N (N + 1) (2N + 1) - (N - A) (N - A + 1) (2 (N - A) + 1) = (N + B) (N + B + 1) (2 (N + B) + 1) - N (N + 1) (2N + 1)

The largest sum I have found so far has 6195 terms:
385^2 + 386^2 + ... + 5222^2 = 5223^2 + 5224^2 + ... + 6579^2 = 47,461,421,035


Can you also find some successive consecutive cubes for fun? Just replace all of the second power to the third power.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
Thanked by
teliot
June 16th, 2021 at 8:38:30 AM permalink
Quote: aceside

Can you also find some successive consecutive cubes for fun? Just replace all of the second power to the third power.


I'll see what I can do.

Cubes should be easier, as 1^3 + 2^3 + ... + n^3 = (1 + 2 + ... + n)^2
which means if you start with
(n-(a-1))^3 + (n-(a-2))^3 + ... + n^3 = (n+1)^3 + (n+2)^3 + ... + (n+b)^3
you get:
(n (n + 1) / 2)^2 - ((n - a) (n - a + 1) / 2)^2 = ((n + b)(n + b + 1) / 2)^2 = (n (n + 1) / 2)^2
2 (n (n + 1))^2 = ((n + b) (n + b + 1))^2 + ((n-a) (n - a + 1))^2

So far, the only one I have found is 3^3 + 4^3 + 5^3 = 6^3 = 216
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 16th, 2021 at 8:44:35 AM permalink


Fill a cylindrical glass with water. A quick way to empty it to exactly half its volume is to pour out the water until the water line just touches the circular bottom of the glass. Suppose you tip the glass further, until the water line crosses the center of the bottom of the glass (forming a diameter of the bottom circle).

What fraction of the glass' volume is now filled with water?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
teliot
teliot
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
June 16th, 2021 at 9:46:15 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I'll see what I can do.

Cubes should be easier, as 1^3 + 2^3 + ... + n^3 = (1 + 2 + ... + n)^2
which means if you start with
(n-(a-1))^3 + (n-(a-2))^3 + ... + n^3 = (n+1)^3 + (n+2)^3 + ... + (n+b)^3
you get:
(n (n + 1) / 2)^2 - ((n - a) (n - a + 1) / 2)^2 = ((n + b)(n + b + 1) / 2)^2 = (n (n + 1) / 2)^2
2 (n (n + 1))^2 = ((n + b) (n + b + 1))^2 + ((n-a) (n - a + 1))^2

So far, the only one I have found is 3^3 + 4^3 + 5^3 = 6^3 = 216

Within the range of the INT data size that's the only one I found as well.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 16th, 2021 at 9:46:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Incidentally, my method uses the same concept as the Wizard's but it's not exactly the same. I took 1 minus the integral over all time of:

(1-((1-1/e^(t/210))*(1-1/e^(t/60))*(1-1/e^(t/30))*(1-1/e^(4t/75))*(1-1/e^(5t/66)))^2)*1/e^(7303t/11550)*7303/11550 dt


Let me see if I have this straight:
1 - 1/e^(t/210) is the probability that at least one point of 2 will be rolled and then made in time t (probability = 1/30 that a 2 will be rolled (ignoring 7s on the comeout) x 1/7 that a 2 will be rolled again before a 7 = 1/210)
1 - 1/e^(t/60) is the probability that at least one point of 3 will be rolled and then made in time t
1 - 1/e^(t/30) is the probability that at least one point of 4 will be rolled and then made in time t
...
1 - 1/e^(t/60) is the probability that at least one point of 11 will be rolled and then made in time t
1 - 1/e^(t/210) is the probability that at least one point of 12 will be rolled and then made in time t
The product is the probabiity that all 10 points will be rolled and then made in time t, so 1 - the product is the probability that at least one point will not be rolled and then made
1/e^(t*7303/11550) is the probability that a point will be rolled and then missed (i.e. a seven-out), so multiply this by the previous product to get the probability of sevening out before making all ten points
But why do you then multiply by 7303/11550 (the probability of sevening out in a particular pass)?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 16th, 2021 at 9:48:10 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Within the range of the INT data size that's the only one I found as well.


I got as far as N = 13,000 (N is the largest term on the left side), and also could not find any others.
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1730
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
Thanked by
Gialmere
June 16th, 2021 at 9:54:45 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere



Fill a cylindrical glass with water. A quick way to empty it to exactly half its volume is to pour out the water until the water line just touches the circular bottom of the glass. Suppose you tip the glass further, until the water line crosses the center of the bottom of the glass (forming a diameter of the bottom circle).

What fraction of the glass' volume is now filled with water?




Let the height and radius of the glass equal 1. Then:

Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 16th, 2021 at 10:18:39 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Let me see if I have this straight:
1 - 1/e^(t/210) is the probability that at least one point of 2 will be rolled and then made in time t (probability = 1/30 that a 2 will be rolled (ignoring 7s on the comeout) x 1/7 that a 2 will be rolled again before a 7 = 1/210)
1 - 1/e^(t/60) is the probability that at least one point of 3 will be rolled and then made in time t
1 - 1/e^(t/30) is the probability that at least one point of 4 will be rolled and then made in time t
...
1 - 1/e^(t/60) is the probability that at least one point of 11 will be rolled and then made in time t
1 - 1/e^(t/210) is the probability that at least one point of 12 will be rolled and then made in time t
The product is the probabiity that all 10 points will be rolled and then made in time t, so 1 - the product is the probability that at least one point will not be rolled and then made
1/e^(t*7303/11550) is the probability that a point will be rolled and then missed (i.e. a seven-out), so multiply this by the previous product to get the probability of sevening out before making all ten points
But why do you then multiply by 7303/11550 (the probability of sevening out in a particular pass)?

You have it mostly correct. Ignoring 7s on come out rolls, there are 11 possibilities: 1/210 winning a 2, 1/210 of winning a 12, 1/60 if winning a 3...etc and a 7303/11550 chance of sevening-out. As mentioned, these probabilities add up to 1.

The second to last term of 1/e^(7303t/11550) is the probability that zero seven-outs have happened. And, as you know, the previous terms represent the probability that at least 1 of the 10 points has not been won. Therefore, starting from this state, if the next decision is a seven-out then the fire bet loses at that point in time t. There is a 7303/11550 chance of that happening so we multiply by that factor. Combining all that and integrating gives the sum of the probabilities, at all times from zero to infinity, that the fire bet will lose at that point in time.
It’s all about making that GTA
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
June 16th, 2021 at 10:28:24 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

You have it mostly correct. Ignoring 7s on come out rolls, there are 11 possibilities: 1/210 winning a 2, 1/210 of winning a 12, 1/60 if winning a 3...etc and a 7303/11550 chance of sevening-out. As mentioned, these probabilities add up to 1.

The second to last term of 1/e^(7303t/11550) is the probability that zero seven-outs have happened. And, as you know, the previous terms represent the probability that at least 1 of the 10 points has not been won. Therefore, starting from this state, if the next decision is a seven-out then the fire bet loses at that point in time t. There is a 7303/11550 chance of that happening so we multiply by that factor. Combining all that and integrating gives the sum of the probabilities, at all times from zero to infinity, that the fire bet will lose at that point in time.


So the last part of my explanation should be:
1/e^(t*7303/11550) is the probability that a point will not be rolled and then missed (i.e. a seven-out), so multiply this by the previous product to get the probability of not rolling and making every point nor missing any points (i.e. the bet is "still active").
Multiply this by 7303/11550 to get the probability of sevening out before making all ten points.
Subtract this result from 1 to get the probability of making all ten points before sevening out (i.e. winning the fire bet).
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 16th, 2021 at 4:34:21 PM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

Let the height and radius of the glass equal 1. Then:


Correct!!

lol! Apologies for the size of that picture. I was trying to whip out a puzzle on my cell at work. Heh, it looks just fine on a phone screen.
--------------------------------------------------------------

An optimist sees the glass as half full.

A pessimist sees the glass as half empty.

An engineer sees the glass as a waste of space and money since it's twice as big as you need.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 17th, 2021 at 8:01:51 AM permalink


1) Oh no! You want to play a board game but the box is missing its pair of standard dice. You look around and see some 3x5 cards. Hmm. Woo hoo! You can make two piles of six cards, each numbered 1-6, and Bam! By randomly drawing one card from each pile you have a "pair of dice".

D'oh! There's only eight cards. Hmm. A ha! You can still divide the cards into two sets (piles) and number them in such a way that by drawing two cards from each pile, and adding the four cards together, you get an integer from 2 to 12 with the same frequency of occurrence as rolling that sum on two standard dice.

How do you do it?

2) But wait! You recount and find there are actually nine cards available. Hmm. It occurs to you that you could number the nine cards in such a way that randomly drawing two cards from the pile of nine cards also gives an integer from 2 to 12 with the same frequency of occurrence as rolling that sum on two standard dice.

How do you do it?

Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3017
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
Thanked by
Gialmere
June 17th, 2021 at 9:53:36 AM permalink
Each set is 0 1 2 4.

The way to show it is to consider the binary for the numbers 1 thru 6 as 001 010 011 100 101 and 110, some which use two digits and others which use one. So picking two from 1 2 4 covers the two digit ones while 0+ another cover the others. Thus each set create the numbers 1 thru 6, so are equivalent to a regular die.
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Jun 17, 2021
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 17th, 2021 at 11:29:41 AM permalink
I agree with Charlie on four cards. My answer is by trial and error.


I think this is a trick question. I suspect it is impossible if you stick with the constraints of using integers and adding the two cards.

I've tried using negative numbers and adding, but can't find a solution.

I've tried multiplying, instead of adding, but still can't find a solution.

I suspect there is some other function of the two cards I must take.

That's about where I am now.


Practical Question

In the land of Calizonia, casinos may not use dice in craps, but they may use cards. They must draw two cards, without replacement, from a seven card deck and add the results. The probabilities must match those with two dice. There are no regulations on what can be on the cards.

What should the Calizonia casino do?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6739
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
Thanked by
charliepatrickGialmere
June 17th, 2021 at 11:42:19 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I agree with Charlie on four cards. My answer is by trial and error.


I think this is a trick question. I suspect it is impossible if you stick with the constraints of using integers and adding the two cards.

I've tried using negative numbers and adding, but can't find a solution.

I've tried multiplying, instead of adding, but still can't find a solution.

I suspect there is some other function of the two cards I must take.

That's about where I am now.



Who said anything about the numbers having to be integers? Try having all of the numbers be {integer} + 1/2.

For example, the lowest two can be 1/2 and 3/2, so you can "roll" a 2.

charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3017
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
Thanked by
Gialmere
June 17th, 2021 at 11:52:23 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

...


Who said anything about the numbers having to be integers? Try having all of the numbers be {integer} + 1/2.

For example, the lowest two can be 1/2 and 3/2, so you can "roll" a 2.

That helps as it had to be symmetric and having the middle one being 3.5 seemed to work. Working from the top the first two have to be .5 and 1.5 (to get one 2) then two 2.5 to (get two 3's). Similarly 6.5 5.5 4.5 4.5. The rest falls out.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 17th, 2021 at 11:55:35 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy



Who said anything about the numbers having to be integers? Try having all of the numbers be {integer} + 1/2.

For example, the lowest two can be 1/2 and 3/2, so you can "roll" a 2.



I tried that too and couldn't find an answer, although I guess I didn't try hard enough.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3017
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
June 17th, 2021 at 12:03:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...
Practical Question

In the land of Calizonia, casinos may not use dice in craps, but they may use cards. They must draw two cards, without replacement, from a seven card deck and add the results. The probabilities must match those with two dice. There are no regulations on what can be on the cards.

What should the Calizonia casino do?

Since if you only looked at the two cards there would be 21 permutations you must use the order. Then you have 42 combinations, so some of these must be "to try again".

The following method works.

The cards are labeled 1 2 3 4 5 6 "same". The first card drawn determine the roll of the first die. However if the first card drawn is "same" then you start over again. The second card drawn determines the roll of the second die, except if it's the "same" then you've thrown a repeat of the first roll. Using the "same" to replace the first roll means the second roll still has an equal chance for each outcome.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1520
  • Posts: 27119
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 17th, 2021 at 12:23:18 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Since if you only looked at the two cards there would be 21 permutations you must use the order. Then you have 42 combinations, so some of these must be "to try again".

The following method works.

The cards are labeled 1 2 3 4 5 6 "same". The first card drawn determine the roll of the first die. However if the first card drawn is "same" then you start over again. The second card drawn determines the roll of the second die, except if it's the "same" then you've thrown a repeat of the first roll. Using the "same" to replace the first roll means the second roll still has an equal chance for each outcome.



I agree! One of the California casinos uses this method, I forget which one.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3047
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 17th, 2021 at 4:57:33 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Each set is 0 1 2 4.

The way to show it is to consider the binary for the numbers 1 thru 6 as 001 010 011 100 101 and 110, some which use two digits and others which use one. So picking two from 1 2 4 covers the two digit ones while 0+ another cover the others. Thus each set create the numbers 1 thru 6, so are equivalent to a regular die.


Quote: charliepatrick

Quote: ThatDonGuy

...


Who said anything about the numbers having to be integers? Try having all of the numbers be {integer} + 1/2.

For example, the lowest two can be 1/2 and 3/2, so you can "roll" a 2.

That helps as it had to be symmetric and having the middle one being 3.5 seemed to work. Working from the top the first two have to be .5 and 1.5 (to get one 2) then two 2.5 to (get two 3's). Similarly 6.5 5.5 4.5 4.5. The rest falls out.


Correct!!

Yes, the problem only specifies that the result must be an integer.

-------------------------------------------------

My wife accused me of never achieving anything because of my addiction to board games.

She must have forgotten that time I won second prize in a beauty contest.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
June 17th, 2021 at 8:15:42 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

But wait! You recount and find there are actually nine cards available. Hmm. It occurs to you that you could number the nine cards in such a way that randomly drawing two cards from the pile of nine cards also gives an integer from 2 to 12 with the same frequency of occurrence as rolling that sum on two standard dice.



Number the cards 1,1,2,3,4,5,6,6, Wild

Draw two cards and sum them normally with the following caveats:

2W, 3W, 4W and 5W means pair. So, for example, 4W means 44 or 8

1W is 5, W1 is 6, 6W is 8, W6 is 9. These are the only 4 cases when the order of the cards matters

I think this works but I may be wrong

It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
Thanked by
Gialmere
June 18th, 2021 at 8:52:23 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

There's only eight cards. Hmm. A ha! You can still divide the cards into two sets (piles) and number them in such a way that by drawing two cards from each pile, and adding the four cards together, you get an integer from 2 to 12 with the same frequency of occurrence as rolling that sum on two standard dice.



Number the cards in each pile 0,1,2,3

For each pile, draw two cards and value them by their sum as follows:

01 is 1
02 is 2
12 is 3
13 is 4
23 is 5
30 is 6 (this is the only exception to the sum rule)

So, for instance, a draw of 23 and 02 is valued at 52 or 7
It’s all about making that GTA
  • Jump to: