Thread Rating:

Poll

25 votes (49.01%)
16 votes (31.37%)
7 votes (13.72%)
4 votes (7.84%)
12 votes (23.52%)
3 votes (5.88%)
6 votes (11.76%)
5 votes (9.8%)
12 votes (23.52%)
10 votes (19.6%)

51 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1537
  • Posts: 27821
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
November 4th, 2025 at 9:13:06 AM permalink
Sorry to step on the craps puzzle, but I think we can handle two at the same time.

On Jan 1 a hospital nursery has 3 boys and an unknown number of girls. On Jan 2 a baby is born and added to the nursery. On Jan 3 a random baby is selected from the nursery and it is a boy.

What is the probability the baby born on Jan 2 was a boy?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3111
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
November 4th, 2025 at 10:15:02 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: charliepatrick


5/9 pays 6 to 4]

Out of curiosity, why did you use 6:4 instead of 3:2 ? I’ve also seen UK sportsbooks use 6:4.
link to original post

This comes from old racing odds used in the UK (US tracks tend to use 6/5 7/5 3/2 8/5 9/5 etc). Also we used to have Pounds, Shillings and Pence which is why some early prices were things like 100/6 100/7 100/8 and showed how many shillings you needed to put on to win £5 = 100/-. I'm guessing 1/8th (e.g. 13/8) were used as there was a half-crown (2/6) coin, and 6/4 used as it fitted into the Ev 11/10 5/4 6/4 7/4 2/1 9/4 5/2 11/4 3/1 100/30 7/2 4/1 simple pattern. (Some small greyhound tracks don't use 6/5 11/8 13/8 15/8 85/40 17/2.)

In the old days Starting Prices were from an "average" of "leading" on-course bookmakers. This was done via a group of people going round checking the prices and, as the race started, having a "huddle". It wasn't a mathematical average but a fair price that was available on a number of good bookmakers. They, nearly always, used the nearest odds from the approved list, although in some big race tracks I've known prices such as 95/40, 35/1, 7/5 to be used.

Nowadays, at UK racetracks, Starting Price is calculated using a computer which can directly read the bookmakers prices. I'm not sure whether they still use on course bookies or have moved to include off course ones, but it uses a sample of (say) 12 and takes the median (i.e. a price available on half of the sample). This means it's a price from a specific bookie, so you now do get intermediate prices such as 7/5 8/5 11/5 16/5.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2811
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
November 4th, 2025 at 10:36:14 AM permalink
Interesting. Incidentally, 6:4 is the true inverse of winning a 5 or 9 as in 6 ways to lose and 4 ways to win
It’s all about making that GTA
  • Jump to: