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21 votes (45.65%)
14 votes (30.43%)
6 votes (13.04%)
3 votes (6.52%)
12 votes (26.08%)
3 votes (6.52%)
6 votes (13.04%)
5 votes (10.86%)
12 votes (26.08%)
10 votes (21.73%)

46 members have voted

GM
GM
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June 16th, 2025 at 11:15:17 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


To 100 places, I get:
0.14015 01597 77671 70675 03301 99764 58363 24852 96210 37282 37474 09380 11959 51720 40943 79197 71682 53488 94282 64038
link to original post


I agree.
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 26th, 2025 at 6:01:55 PM permalink
I invite my fellow math geniuses on the forum to visit my new thread on 32 Cards. Thank you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
charliepatrick
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Wizard
June 26th, 2025 at 6:48:47 PM permalink
I've done a quick spreadsheet which looks at all the permutaions of 6-13 (i.e. 8*8*8*8) and assumes there are only 4 of each rank. However a trick I've used (see 6 6 7 6 where there's a tie) is to divide the 96 ways to get it, so each of the winners have 48 wins each. This is why the total includes 2/3 as there can be 3-way ties.
I haven't checked anything but it shouldn't take long to knock up a similar spreadsheet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 26th, 2025 at 8:43:55 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I've done a quick spreadsheet
link to original post



We're pretty close, but not quite in agreement. Probably something to do with the ties. My figures are the page I linked to.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 27th, 2025 at 4:52:23 AM permalink
I'm pretty sure the error is on my end, but I can't find it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 27th, 2025 at 5:56:58 AM permalink
I found it. Stupid mistake, as usual. I definitely owe you a beer for this one.

Updated table.

Winner Pays Probability Return
8 11 0.078328 -0.060067
9 4.5 0.163787 -0.099172
10 2.2 0.293023 -0.062326
11 1 0.464862 -0.070276
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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