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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Gialmere
December 18th, 2019 at 4:25:52 PM permalink
21+3 and Perfect Pairs, are the ones in the video, and the WoO link below:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/quantum-blackjack/ >>>then go to "Rule 13"
Gialmere
Gialmere
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ksdjdj
December 18th, 2019 at 5:05:12 PM permalink
Well, that's disappointingly mundane. You'd think they'd come up with another way to use/exploit those bonus cards.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
tyler498
tyler498
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December 18th, 2019 at 10:41:25 PM permalink
I like it.
Mainly because I think a simple game with a clear basic strategy that one would execute gets boring. Even though I love blackjack, I've always hoped for a more skill-based version.
Now Im not saying that this is it, but wouldn't it be great if there was a version simple to understand, but with a basic strategy so complex that almost nobody can play it perfectly. Then the casino can offer and advertise a card game with a small positive EV if played perfectly, but so few people would be able to do that that it would still be profitable to casinos... maybe I'm just dreaming...
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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ksdjdj
December 19th, 2019 at 12:12:41 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think that even though working out the "overall strategy" for this game is complex, you could treat it as two games and start with a "basic strategy " for the "main game"***.

***: I am treating the "main game basic strategy" as "how you should play the game, if you DID NOT have the bonus(es) to worry about" (see example of "player 10 vs dealer 6" below).

Example: for this version of BJ, you would NOT double a 10 vs a 6, because I think it worth about -$6.33 if you double, where as hitting is worth about -$3.17, for a $100 initial bet.

I won't work out the whole "main game basic strategy", there are at least two reasons why I don't want to do it (see below).
1. I am using "infinite deck" for the "player total", to work out the above "$ EVs" (so my figure will be out slightly).
2. It takes me about 15+ minutes to analyze each "two card player total, and dealer up card" (since I don't have a "specialized program/spreadsheet", I have to do each hand from "scratch").

After the "main game strategy" is complete, you can possibly start on the "way more" complex "bonus card strategy"

Do you think it is worth working out the strategy this way (or similar) for this game?



Yes, I think the first step is to work out the basic strategy for the game decisions in the absence of multipliers -taking into account the "Dealer 3-card Busts are a Push" rule. I suspect you will almost always hit and rarely stand, double or split.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
scrooge
scrooge
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January 16th, 2020 at 11:49:22 AM permalink
The screenshot indicates that you can see the multiplier cards before you make your playing decisions. So there would be a different strategy table for each of thousands of combinations of multiplier cards.

An obvious human-feasible advantage play would be to count the multipliers in the multiplier deck and raise your bet when the average multiplier remaining in it is very high, but I only see one shoe. Are they generating the multipliers electronically?
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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ksdjdj
January 17th, 2020 at 1:51:29 PM permalink
I have worked out a preliminary strategy for playing hard 12-20 for Quantum Blackjack. This strategy does consider any multiplier cards that you have in your hand but ignores the possibility of getting a multiplier card when drawing to your hand.



Explanation: Given the above table, if you have 15 vs a dealer 6, you should stand except if the cards that are currently in your hand have a multiplier value of 3 or higher in which case you should hit.

Because I have not factored in the possibility of drawing a card that is a multiplier, the above strategy table should be regarded as a starting point in which outstanding multiplier cards might influence you to Hit some hands that are shown as marginal Stand hands. However, I should point out that outstanding multiplier cards have no influence on your decision if their rank is high enough to cause you to bust. Ex: you have 17 vs 10, with no multiplier cards in your hand and all the multiplier cards for this hand have ranks in the range of 5-T: in this case, the possibility of drawing multiplier cards cannot help your hand (they will make you bust) and the correct move will be to Stand. I get Stand EV = -0.5098 and Hit EV = -0.5433 for this situation.

Note that I show that you should hit a H17 vs 8. I calculate this as Hit EV=-0.560353846 and Stand EV= -0.5612 - a very close decision indeed! Because I use some infinite deck approximations in my calculation, I consider that my calculation is not precise enough to give a reliable strategy for this particular situation. However, I do note that if any of the defined multiplier cards for the hand are an Ace, 2, 3 or 4, then the possibility of drawing one of those cards will certainly make it optimal to hit the H17 vs 8.

My next step will be to add the effect of drawing a card that is a multiplier card and that also does not bust your hand. I am afraid this is likely to get very complicated. For example, with H17 vs T an Ace that has a multiplier of 3X may not be sufficient to make you hit whereas a 4 with a multiplier of 3X may indeed be enough to make hitting be the optimal move. It may be hard to simplify define the strategy in some (Many?) cases.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
KevinR
KevinR
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July 31st, 2020 at 2:17:57 AM permalink
I just learned of this game about a week ago and became intrigued because of the complexity of the math, and wondered if there was a possibility to find a strategy with positive EV.

Starting with the Wizard's infinite deck spreadsheet/workbook (I love this workbook btw thanks for sharing) i added the category of "bust with 3 cards" to the dealer sheet and inserted the probabilities that the Wizard posted about this game. First step, ignoring multiplier cards, I found a basic strategy which gives a house edge of about 15% and the hitting and standing agrees with the table posted by gordonm888.

The next phase was to suppose there is exactly one multiplier card. For each possible rank of the multiplier card, I added sheets for hitting expectations, hit-stand, doubling, splitting, ev, er. I found strategy charts for each possible scenario, having a single multiplier card. With a single 3x multiplier card, house edge is approximately 13%, except if it is Ace it is about 11%. With a 5x multiplier card, i found house edge as about 10%, except for ace it was about 5%. And with a 10x multiplier card, i found about 0% house edge, 10% player advantage with an 10x Ace multiplier card. The workbook has about 270 sheets, so there is quite possibly some errors. Using copy, paste and Find-Replace, it was not an unrealistic task.

Before I go any further and go to the next level (2 multiplier cards), I'm wondering if this game is still around. I'm thinking it might fail if there are not enough players. Optimal strategy is very hard to determine, and without optimal strategy the house edge is too high.

Also, I watched the 17 minute video by Live Casino Comparer and wrote down the occurrences of the multiplier cards: There were 15 hands, 9 of which had a single multiplier card, while 3 hands had two multiplier cards and 3 hands had three multiplier cards. Also, out of a total of 24 multiplier cards during these 15 hands, 17 of them were 3x, while 4 were 5x and 3 were 10x. This is too small a sample to make conclusions, but it looks like maybe the 3x, 5x and 10x do not occur with equal probabilities, and that one multiplier card, two multiplier cards, and three multiplier cards do not occur with equal probabilities.

Has anyone played this game? Lately? I'm debating whether to pursue this further.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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May 7th, 2021 at 8:25:53 AM permalink
Asking again, has anyone played quantum blackjack and kept a record of the frequencies for number of multiplier cards and for magnitude of the multipliers?

KevinR above has made a start, does anyone else have more observations to add to this? You may PM me if you are reluctant to post.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 7th, 2021 at 10:05:25 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Asking again, has anyone played quantum blackjack and kept a record of the frequencies for number of multiplier cards and for magnitude of the multipliers?



I have not. Haven't even thought about it for a year.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
billryan
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May 7th, 2021 at 12:25:47 PM permalink
This seems a bit complicated for the typical tourists
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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