Craps Equation?

If you play the PASS and DO NOT PASS lines in craps as follows:

Every roll place $10 on PASS (or 20, 25, 50)
Also, place 5$ on DO NOT PASS your first roll and double down on DO NOT PASS until the shooter craps out.
Once they crap out reset your DO NOT PASS bet back to $5 and double down until shooter does not pass... repeat this process...

As long as you have the money to cover above the 99.7% range of possible pass streaks, you will always profit...

To decrease risk maybe wait until someone goes on a 2-4 pass streak then start placing the pattern unit crap out. Wait until another 2-4 streak and repeat. (Even a 10 heater you only need $1290 at most in hand to keep winning on 10$ pass line)

Thoughts? Is this math correct? Is there limits some places, are there no limits in others? Would this surely get you beat up?

Quote: Lagarcia95

...As long as you have the money to cover above the 99.7% range of possible pass streaks, you will always profit...

Hi Lagarcia95 and welcome to the forum.

Congratulations on fitting so many classic gamblers' errors and myths in one short post.

Others will be along shortly to detail the errors in your ways. Some will be polite and some will be derisive. Hopefully you wont take offence that your nonsense will get torn to shreds. Sorry, but your system is nonsense*.
Just be confident that there is less than zero value in your systems. It's just another amusing way to lose money.

You will, without doubt, get one response telling you about how you can hit and run to avoid the losses. Let me pre-empt that argument too.

*Rather than engaging in arguments to defend your money making system, feel free to borrow as much as you can, mortgage your home, build an unbeatable bankroll and take your system to the casinos. They will LOVE you. You won't get any heat as you (Fail to) bankrupt them, one after another. When you've done that, we'll be more ready to be impressed.

Quote: Lagarcia95

Every roll place $10 on PASS (or 20, 25, 50)

come out roll $10 on pass
point is now 5 (a 5 rolled)
you say now add $10 to pass line bet
while everyone else is making place bets and hardway bets, you want to add $10 EVERY ROLL to the pass line.
ok sure

Quote: Lagarcia95

Also, place 5$ on DO NOT PASS your first roll

come out roll, $5 on Don't Pass

Quote: Lagarcia95

and double down on DO NOT PASS until the shooter craps out.

once a point is set, the don't pass bet can NOT be increased... against the rules.

the shooter craps out only on a 2,3 or 12 on the come out roll
that makes NO sense.

Quote: Lagarcia95

Once they crap out reset your DO NOT PASS bet back to $5 and double down until shooter does not pass... repeat this process...

double down on a bet the can not be increased when a point is established?
and again 'crap out' is a 2,3 or 12 on the come out roll

you might mean 7 out but try not to change the craps lingo

Quote: Lagarcia95

As long as you have the money to cover above the 99.7% range of possible pass streaks, you will always profit...

Ah, the casino goes broke from your craps play!

Quote: Lagarcia95

Thoughts? Is this math correct?

math aint no correct as per the rules of the dont pass
you needs to do better explaining of the system of play to KILL the craps tables at all casinos that have its.

I am assuming the system is this:

Start with 10 on Pass, and 5 on Don't Pass
If the shooter wins (either by 7 or 11 on the come-out roll, or by making his point), bet another 10 on Pass, and double the Don't Pass bet
Keep doing this until the shooter loses
When the shooter loses, go back to 10 on Pass and 5 on Don't Pass

Assuming this is correct, the first problem is the dreaded 12 (or, in some places like Reno, 2) on the come-out roll, where you lose your $10 on Pass but the Don't Pass bet is a push.

The second problem is, about half the time, you lose $5 (lose $10 on Pass; win $5 on Don't Pass), and about 1/4 of the time, you break even (lose $10 on Pass; win $10 on Don't Pass) - and remember what I said about a 12 on the come-out roll.

The third problem is the same with pretty every doubling system - it's very possible to come up against the maximum bet. If the shooter does make 10 points in a row, your next Don't Pass bet is $5120 - except that the maximum bet is $5000.

Rather than dwell on the math, I'll just say that you should have the simple modifications:

1) Play within your means
2) Enjoy yourself and the communal atmosphere that comes with the game.
3) Make sure you get a few drinks along the way.
4) Make your metric your watch, not winning or losing because if you play long enough you will wind up with very, very expensive free drinks.
5) When the inevitable begins, don't chase those losses.


Welcome to the forum and try to ignore any nasty negativity.

Thank you ThatDonGuy for answering my question! I appreciate everyone’s feedback, I’m a college student who has been to the casino less than 20 times with less than 200 dollars each. Craps is my favorite table and this was a drunk thought I couldn’t get out of my head so I found this forum! I did not believe that this was some beat the casino grandiose idea just needed clarity on it! Thanks y’all

It was the 12 push that I didn’t know!

Lagarcia, I have an article on betting systems which explains in detail why they don't work. I also wrote a computer simulation for another WoV forum member who had a similar idea as yours, betting on both the Pass and the Don't Pass. The results were that the system lost ~1.39% on the line bets, which is exactly what we'd expect.