Baccarat Minibac math

Hello, new to this forum. Please correct me if this is the right place to ask questions, I would like to know the probability of coming 2 bankers and 2 player then 2 bankers or vice versa 2 players 2 bankers and then 2 players, consist of 2 double jumps 3 times in a row in a game of baccarat. Please thanks in advance

Quote: Liangster600

Hello, new to this forum. Please correct me if this is the right place to ask questions, I would like to know the probability of coming 2 bankers and 2 player then 2 bankers or vice versa 2 players 2 bankers and then 2 players, consist of 2 double jumps 3 times in a row in a game of baccarat. Please thanks in advance

Hi, and welcome to the forum. This was the right place to pose the question and I expect someone to comment on it shortly. Asking in your blog was less correct and it probably won't get much of a response there.
I'm afraid you may find some hostility to the idea of watching and acting on patterns in Baccarat, which is widely regarded as futile here.

You can find the probabilities of each outcome at https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/calculator/ .

If you assume that the chances of the next hand are not really affected by previous hands then the chances of any given specific run is about .45 (or .46) ^ 6. In particular BBPPBB 0.88% and PPBBPP 0.83% (as Player is slightly less likely than Banker). The reason it isn't 1/64 is that you have to avoid ties.

If you wanted to know the exact figures, i.e. taking into account of the cards used in previous hands, then you probably need to write a program and look at all possible outcomes.

Thanks for the reply. No it doesn't have to be affected by previous hands and ignoring ties, just wanted to know the probability of double jumps. U mentioned 1/64. Does that mean once in every 64 hands? Thx

Quote: Liangster600

...U mentioned 1/64. Does that mean once in every 64 hands? Thx

I had assumed the question was essentially at the top of a new shoe what are the chances of the first six coups being a specific set of outcomes, i.e. (i) BBPPBB or (ii) PPBBPP.

With Baccarat there can be a tie, so it's not like a coin toss whether either one side wins or loses - obviously if you were only betting and wanted to know whether your bet won or lost, you could ignore ties.

The 1/64 comes from comparing a similar run using a fair coin. Any specific run (whether HHTTHH, TTHHTT, HHHHHH) has a 1 in 64 chance. There are two reasons Baccarat isn't like coin tossing (i) the game is biassed towards the banker winning (ii) ties can happen (so there is a third outcome at each stage to be considered).

If your question was intended to ignore ties, along the lines of "I intend to bet Banker, Banker, Player, Player, Banker, Banker at the start of any shoe (leaving the bet running on all ties), what is my chance of winning all six bets": then the answer to that is about 1/62 and PPBBPP 1/66.

Quote: Liangster600

I would like to know the probability of coming 2 bankers and 2 player then 2 bankers or vice versa 2 players 2 bankers and then 2 players, consist of 2 double jumps 3 times in a row in a game of baccarat. Please thanks in advance

BBPPBB (ties not counted) in an 8 deck shoe
simulation data
0 times: 34%
at least 1 time: 66%
at least 2 times: 27%

PPBBPP (ties not counted) in an 8 deck shoe
simulation data
0 times: 35.5%
at least 1 time: 64.5%
at least 2 times: 24.5%

most ask about alternating patterns (at least in the past)

Ty for clarifying, yes ignoring ties, since tie bets does lose neither banker or player. U r right, it's not like a coin toss since theres no third outcome but similar coz ties doesnt lose. But does it mean if tie comes in between the outcome of coming six coups changes or stays the same? Thx

Ty for the reply, I tried looking for a thread like this in the forum and cant find any b4 I asked, if u can point me to it much appreciate it. Thx

Quote: charliepatrick

You can find the probabilities of each outcome at /games/baccarat/calculator/ .

If you assume that the chances of the next hand are not really affected by previous hands then the chances of any given specific run is about .45 (or .46) ^ 6. In particular BBPPBB 0.88% and PPBBPP 0.83% (as Player is slightly less likely than Banker). The reason it isn't 1/64 is that you have to avoid ties.

If you wanted to know the exact figures, i.e. taking into account of the cards used in previous hands, then you probably need to write a program and look at all possible outcomes.

How do I read the probability chart on the website u posted? Thanks

Quote: Liangster600

Ty for the reply, I tried looking for a thread like this in the forum and cant find any b4 I asked, if u can point me to it much appreciate it. Thx

me too but my memory is not as good as it used to be. and I think it was about alternating patterns (BPBP, PBPB)
I think I did answer your question.
good luck

Quote: Liangster600

Ty for clarifying, yes ignoring ties, since tie bets does lose neither banker or player. U r right, it's not like a coin toss since theres no third outcome but similar coz ties doesnt lose. But does it mean if tie comes in between the outcome of coming six coups changes or stays the same? Thx

It changes the probabilities.
Anyway, the interpretation of these probabilities is delicate. « On any independent sequence of six results, how many exhibit this-or-that pattern? »

The answer presents no interest for anyone, neither superstitious gamblers nor rational ones.

If you ask in the spirit to design a pattern-dependent play, then you must have a (wrong) idea that future results are correlated with sequences. Then, these interactions would change the answer, which is based on independence.
If you ask in order to statistically test something, this simple answer requires independent SEQUENCES OF 6, meaning that you must wait for another 6 before making the next observation. It does not answer, for example, the probability of the sequence arising during a shoe.
You should first establish a model’of the hypothesis you are testing, then use the theory of stochastic series.